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    Gavekal Research

    Oil And US Contagion Risks

    Oil prices are 50% lower than last summer and it is not clear that the rout is over. Such a dramatic price adjustment in what is arguably the most essential commodity to modern life will inevitably shape the economic and investment landscape in 2015. In the case of the world’s largest oil consumer, our view has been that lower oil prices reinforce the case for a sustained US recovery. Our proviso to this fairly cheery prognosis is that the...

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    Our Holiday Reading List

    For the third year we are publishing a year-end books round-up. The topics covered by the 17 books in our compendium include hardy Gavekal perennials such as economics, politics and the effect of technological transformation on modern life. In addition Charles considers ancient Rome’s decline due to its apparent embrace of socialism over liberalism. Louis kicks us off with a look at the roots of our most basic human urges.

    8
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    Gavekal Research

    The Sources Of US Purchasing Power

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    New York Seminar December 2014 - Charles, Francois, Tom & Will

    We held our winter seminar in New York on December 5 with Charles, Francois, Tom and Will offering their views of the global economic pulse and recent market developments.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    5C United States: US Capex Will Grow Despite Energy Sector Cuts

    The relentless decline of oil prices promises to be a key variable impacting economic activity in 2015. The positive implication for consumers is clear. The implication for capital spending growth is less obvious. Our view is that the outlook for overall US capital spending is bright, despite the likely collapse of oil-related capex. In fact, it may be brighter because of the collapse in oil prices.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    5C US: United States: Capital Spending Is Picking Up

    Corporate America has been extraordinarily profitable through the post-2009 recovery, with the latest earnings season once again surprising on the upside. Yet, economy watchers have been frustrated that companies have not used this profitability to fund a capital spending spree. Instead, they have opted to buy back shares and pursue mergers and acquisitions. Our view—considering the economic circumstances—is that this was rational behavior. But...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Global Central Banks Are Driving Appetite For US Cyclicals

    The rebound in US equities since their mid-October trough has been impressive. After giving up almost all its year to date gains in just four weeks, the S&P 500 snapped back even more quickly, ending October at a new record high. Since then, it has extended its advance to notch up a YTD gain of 12%. Yet, until just a few days ago, the relative performance of sectors within the index indicated a degree of caution on the part of investors....

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    5C US: To The Consumer Go The Spoils Of Shale

    The US shale energy revolution will continue to confer economic benefits, but a reordering of the main winners and losers is unfolding. With the WTI benchmark at $77/barrel and seemingly headed lower, the US shale oil drilling industry is set for a significant slowdown. That is bad news for the energy companies, equipment suppliers and those states with heavy exposure to the sector—all of which have had a great few years (see Is The Shale Boom...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Most Reliable Source Of Demand

    The strong third quarter growth in US gross domestic product announced yesterday—a 3.5% annualized rate—not only suggested that the American economy is on a sustainable upward trajectory; it also confirmed that the Federal Reserve’s decision to end quantitative easing is appropriate. Although the faster-than-expected headline growth figure was partly driven by government spending, the two key engines of the economy—business capital spending and...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Walking Without The QE Crutch

    After three rounds, six years and some US$3.7trn in asset purchases, the US Federal Reserve yesterday finally called time on its program of quantitative easing, and shifted its language on the US labor market from ultra-dovish to something slightly closer to neutral. Investors took the news in their stride, largely untroubled by the Fed’s confirmation that it is to take away what many had long regarded as an essential crutch for asset prices....

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    Is The Shale Boom Turning To Bust?

    America’s shale bonanza has been one of the great success stories of the last ten years. Since the mid-2000s, the US energy industry has transformed itself, as rising international energy prices and advances in horizontal drilling made it feasible to exploit vast hydrocarbon resources locked away in the shale beds which underlie much of the country east of the Rockies. As companies drilled new wells by the thousand, domestic production soared,...

    15
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    Gavekal Research

    Fed To The Rescue?

    “Lord, grant me chastity and continence, but not yet.” That prayer from a young Saint Augustine sprung to mind when listening to St. Louis’ Fed president, James Bullard, suggest yesterday that the Federal Reserve may extend its quantitative easing program beyond the planned end date on October 29. Bullard thinks the Fed should “invoke that clause about it being data dependent” and keep buying $15bn worth of treasuries and mortgage bonds, at...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (October 15): The Equity Rout

    Overview: François Chauchat asks whether a US recovery is enough to drive global equity markets or has the world changed.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    5C US: Domestic Plays Beat Multinationals

    The current sell-off has left few places to hide, but some areas have done worse than others. Small caps have underperformed large caps; cyclicals have fallen versus defensives; and foreign markets have done worse than the US (especially in US dollar terms). While our clients have surely given a lot of thought to these trends, today we suggest dividing the US equity market another way: between ‘domestics’ and ‘multinationals’.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Seek refuge In The US

    Markets have suffered a significant risk-off move in the last month. US equities have fallen as much as –3.8%; European stocks are down -6% in euro terms and –8% in US dollar terms, and government bonds have been bid up while credit spreads have widened. Readers are surely wondering what to do now: Buy the dip, or sell everything before this turns into a full-on bear market? Hold steady, or adjust portfolios? To answer these questions, we have...

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    Gavekal Research

    5C US: Beware The Small Cap Energy Effect - Will Denyer & Tan Kai Xian

    The US hydrocarbon industry continues to suffer weak natural gas prices and must wait until 2016 before new LNG export terminals allow more gas to be shipped overseas. Hence, active production rigs in areas such as Texas and North Dakota are increasingly being used to extract oil. The expansion of US crude production has seen output reach 8.6mn barrels per day, back to levels seen in the 1980s; and the rig count continues to rise. But if this is...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Can Working Women Revitalize Japan?

    In his reshuffle earlier this month, prime minister Shinzo Abe appointed five women to Japan’s cabinet. By more than doubling the number of senior ministerial posts held by women, Abe was hoping to lend some extra impetus to the ‘third arrow’ of his ‘Abenomics’ program to revitalize Japan’s economy. The first two arrows—fiscal and monetary stimuli—have succeeded in weakening the yen to a six year low against the US dollar, returning Japan to...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    The Fed And The Volatility Conundrum

    As investors digested the utterances from yesterday’s FOMC meeting, the broad US dollar index jumped a meaty 1%, gaining against every major currency. At first glance, such a volatile reaction seems odd. After all, the statement was an effective non-event—just another well telegraphed $10bn tapering of asset purchases, that leaves the Federal Reserve on course to end its quantitative easing program next month. If anything, this could have been...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Cutting Through The Noise: A New Inflation Indicator

    The outlook for US inflation and monetary policy was already cloudy, even before the Federal Reserve further muddied the waters yesterday with its conflicting signals. To help clients pierce through the haze, Will and KX have developed a new composite diffusion index to provide a reliable leading indicator of US consumer inflation, which they are publishing for the first time in today’s Chartbook. Based on five components from both the money and...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Maturing US Recovery, Policy & Markets

    World markets are jittery going into a two day Federal Reserve meeting on the “good-is-bad” concern that a sustained recovery will produce a faster than expected move toward monetary tightening. In this chartbook Will provides a comprehensive update of his US economic view and explains what these projections mean for policy setting. His bottom line is that the US economy looks more like it did in 2004 than in 2007. Hence, there is every reason...

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