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E.g., 25-06-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: The Market Impact Of US Policymakers

    In yesterday’s webinar, our team of US analysts considered what the Federal Reserve's tentative moves to normalize monetary policy means for growth and asset values. They also offered updates on US fiscal policy and anti-trust developments.

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    Gavekal Research

    Fed Talks Of Tapering

    It should not be shocking but the Federal Reserve is getting set to return to a more normal monetary policy. To avert a 2013-style “taper tantrum”, Jay Powell wrapped cotton wool around his “tightening” message on Wednesday but the fact is that the Fed is talking about tapering its asset purchases.

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    Gavekal Research

    Peak Inflation Expectations

    Despite warning signs, it is now clear that investors were too relaxed about US pricing pressures at the start of this year. That much was clear from the consumer price index rising 5.0% year-on-year in May and at an annual rate of 5.9% over the last six months. Yet with the market measure of forward inflation expectations just below a 10-year high, the scope for these numbers to keep shocking has waned.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Weighing The Fed’s Unconventional Options

    The Federal Reserve’s next move is likely to be verbal guidance over a tapering of asset purchases, argues Will. That is increasingly a consensus market position, so in this interview he explores other policy options that the Fed could choose to pursue.

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    Gavekal Research

    Accomplishing The Fed’s Mission

    Another week, another discourse on US inflation, this time triggered by the personal consumption expenditures index rising 3.6% year-over-year in April, the fastest gain since 2008. Some of that is base effects, but not all: since the Federal Reserve refined its 2% inflation target to an “average” 2% last August, the PCE index has risen at an annualized 3.5%. The point of the Fed’s change was to “make up” for misses and better anchor long-term...

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Buy The Crypto Dip?

    Crypto-currency prices have plunged in the last two weeks on a bad brew of news. Will wants to believe in crypto-currencies as an alternative form of money. However, he has struggled to see how such tokens make the jump to being “money”, with all that entails. The question is whether after such a big price drawdown, this skepticism is now discounted into the price.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Inflation And Its Global Impacts

    Markets have been roiled by rising US inflation that seems to be returning sooner than expected, and similar inflationary dynamics are starting to be seen in Europe. Our team of analysts addressed the inflation outlook in the US, Europe and emerging markets, and offered views on what it means for asset prices in these markets.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Data Against The Fed Stacks Up

    The US Federal Reserve prides itself on being “data dependent.” If it is truly data dependent, the Fed is going to find it increasingly difficult to justify its extremely easy monetary policy stance. The latest of the data points to stack up against it are professional forecasters’ inflation expectations, which the Fed has often lent weight to in the past. For the last two years, these have been subdued. Now—the last piece of the inflation...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Playing The Inflation Rotation

    It seems wherever you look today, there are inflation signals. If the Federal Reserve is right, and the signaled burst of inflation proves transitory, then all will be well. The risk is that inflation proves stickier than policymakers expect. If so, Monday’s -2.6% sell-off in the Nasdaq is just a taste of a rotation that still has further to run.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, May 2021

    Joe Biden's enormous fiscal initiatives mark a potential sea change in the US government’s role in the economy. They may yet get watered down as the US president negotiates with more conservative members of his party, but tax and spend is clearly the new mantra in Washington DC. The question for investors is what this means for assets in the US and around the world.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Changing State Of US Liquidity

    When it comes to creating and distributing US money, there are three main players: the Federal Reserve, the US Treasury and commercial banks. Recent events call for a status update on the prospects for money flows from each, and what it all means for the bond market.

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    Gavekal Research

    Fighting The Fed Over Wages

    Recent rollbacks of Covid restrictions in the US should spur consumer demand, adding to an inflationary brew. Most policymakers continue to claim such pricing pressure is “transitory”. Perhaps, but the employment cost index shows US wages having accelerated for the last two quarters and the balance of evidence points to this uptrend continuing.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Biden Ups The Ante On Tax And Spend

    President Joe Biden has said that the US will make sweeping cuts to carbon dioxide emissions and impose tax hikes on the wealthy. For now, the US economy is recovering, but can this continue if risk takers pull in their horns as they will get less of the rewards?

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    Gavekal Research

    The Case Against TIPS, From An Inflation Worrier

    Jerome Powell made it clear on Wednesday that the Federal Reserve is not even ready to talk about tapering its asset purchases. Understandably, most questions from journalists ran something like: “Why so, given the strong economic data?”. When it comes to inflation, there is a similar disconnect between the Fed and the bond market, with big implications for investors.

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    Gavekal Research

    Taxing Capital

    Next week Joe Biden will set out plans to double the rate of capital gains tax for Americans making over US$1mn a year. The president’s proposal is the latest element of his initiative to levy higher taxes, from one direction or another, on the elusive earnings of multinational corporations and wealthy individuals in order to help fund higher government spending. Whatever the political merits of Biden’s plan, his multi-pronged approach will be...

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    Gavekal Research

    US Inflation Not Just A base Effect

    Even adjusting for base effects, US consumer price inflation is accelerating. This is not surprising, as expansionary factors like fast money supply growth and strong demand are driving up prices. In this context, it is also not surprising that real assets (equities, commodities, TIPS) have outpaced nominal assets (cash, nominal bonds). But how long-lasting will inflation’s rise prove to be, and when will the Federal Reserve start to normalize...

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    Gavekal Research

    When Do We Begin To Worry About Cost Pressures?

    For the last 13 months or so, ever since the Covid pandemic started to grip, the broad US equity market has been driven above all by fears and hopes for top-line revenue growth. Last spring, as investors anticipated a collapse in revenues, the market collapsed. Policy support halted the slide, and over recent months, as investors have looked forward to the end of the pandemic and a rebound in revenues, the broad market has scaled new highs.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Unpacking The NFT Hype

    What’s a “non-fungible token”? Why would anyone pay millions of dollars for one? And what do they have to do with blockchains? In this video interview, Will unpacks the latest craze to explain what buying an NFT actually gets you, and considers whether this is a useful new technology or yet another case of blockchain hype.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: The Future Of The Great US Rotation

    Much has happened in the US in the last eight weeks. More than 80mn Americans have been vaccinated against Covid, Congress has passed a stimulus bill worth 9% of GDP, and the Fed has confirmed its determination to remain among the most peaceable of inflation doves. In response, 10-year US treasury yields have leapt, and the rotation from growth stocks to value has grown more violent even as the broad equity market has ascended new heights. In...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Short And Long For The US Dollar

    After ending 2020 amid heavily negative sentiment, the US dollar has confounded near-term bears by edging higher year-to-date. The DXY dollar index has gained 2.75%, clawing back just over a third of its -7.5% decline in 2020. Perhaps this should not be too surprising. First, by the end of 2020, the US dollar was no longer blatantly overvalued. Second, the DXY found support at 90, its low of early 2018. Third, the near-term outlook for nominal...

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