E.g., 27-11-2021
E.g., 27-11-2021
We have found 914 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Bull Market, What Bull Market?

    Underweighting US equities has become a consensual position and yet the market continues to flirt with new highs. So what gives? My approach has always been to rely on decision rules built on historical data analysis. When enough of these rules signal a “buy” or “sell”, I make a move (for a good example of this approach see Managing Equities In A Strong Dollar World). My esteemed colleague Anatole has been arguing for a while that the S&P500...

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    When Bond Markets Become Silly

    Investors are understandably spooked by recent bond market ructions given a backdrop of weakening growth in major economies, and continued accommodative central bank policy. Francois argued yesterday that this “tantrum” was partly technical, but also the result of markets looking through to higher inflation expectations due to an apparently better economic outlook (see Tantrum II And European Portfolios). I agree with him that markets are being...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Liberties Of England, And What They Mean For Europe

    When the Conservative-led government of the last parliament started to show that it was serious about deficit-reduction and lessening the role of the state in the British economy, I turned very bullish on UK financial assets (see A Supply-Sider’s View Of The UK for a detailed exposition of this view). Perhaps unsurprisingly over the last five years the UK mid-cap index has outperformed the German and French equivalents. I admit to having had a...

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C Overview: The Real Message From Labor

    So how are we to understand the less than thrilling message emanating from the labor markets of the main economies. Is this evidence of some unescapable “secular stagnation”, or is something else going on?

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Post-Volatility World

    These are words that I utter with the utmost caution—this time, it really is different. I refer not to central bankers’ scurrilous efforts at monetary debasement, nor the spineless diplomacy of European political leaders, or even the cult of celebrity in the age of social media. In some guise, we have seen all of this before. No, dear reader, for something genuinely new to the modern experience, consider the right hand side of the chart below...

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C Overview: Why The Coming Collapse Of World Trade Should Be Celebrated

    Sustained economic growth has always gone hand-in-hand with a big rise in communications infrastructure. To explain why, assume that a country has two cities, named A and B. At the point that a modern communication infrastructure is built (road, trains, internet) then, in each case, a single line of communication is needed. Three cities implies the need for three lines; a fourth city means six lines. Ultimately, if all the cities are to...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Small Is Beautiful

    At the end of the 1980s the world changed, with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the start of China’s renaissance. The next two and a half decades were marked by a mass movement towards globalization. We now have a long enough history to determine who were the winners over those 25 years. The answer is very simple: small countries.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Of Central Bankers, Monkeys And John Law

    A revealing experiment involved monkeys being placed in a cage with a pile of nuts stashed on an upper level. Their efforts to snaffle the food caused them to be doused in water, blasted with a siren and startled by an electric shock. After a number of attempts the monkeys gave up. Later, a second group of monkeys were introduced—the new entrants made a beeline for the goodies, but were quickly beaten back by the chastened first group of monkeys...

    9
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    How Indexation Killed Growth

    Indexing, as I have written before, is a form of socialism, since capital is allocated not as it should be—according to its marginal return—but rather according to swings in the market capitalization of the underlying assets. It is hard to think of a more stupid way to allocate this scarce resource.

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Three Brothers In Arms: Wicksell, Schumpeter And Fisher

    I am often asked which of the great economists best understood the link between the economy and financial markets. Passing judgment on such giants may be presumptuous, but practical men and women of finance may want to consider being slaves to the following propagators of ideas:

    11
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Trying To Measure The US Dollar Short Position

    It seems to be conventional wisdom that the long-dollar trade has become worryingly “crowded”. That was certainly the message after last week’s none too startling language tweak by the Federal Reserve produced a frantic dash out of the unit. But as ever, there is what you see, and what you don’t. In this case, what is obscured may be of far greater significance than what is visible in plain sight. Here is why:

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    London Seminar March 2015 - Anatole, François, Andrew & Charles

    We held our main spring seminar in London on March 17 with Anatole, François, Andrew and Charles offering their views of the global economic pulse and recent market and central bank developments.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C Overview: Going Long The Yen

    If I held a decision making role within the Japanese policy apparatus, I would do everything in my power to spur a yen appreciation. Here is why:

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Hidden Tax On Savings

    Frederic Bastiat, the great 19th century French liberal thinker, observed that mediocre economists spend plenty of time talking up the immediate beneficial impact of their measures, but usually ignore the less obvious long term effects. He summarized this view with the pithy observation: “In economics, there is what you see and there is what you don’t.”

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Financing Gap And Bond Spreads

    So far this month, the yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond has risen from 2.22% to almost 2.73%—a sharp move for such a short period of time. In December, we took a searching look at long rates in the US, and expressed the view that as 30-year Treasury yields dipped below 2.5%—the lower limit of our valuation model for long bonds—it would be time to shorten the duration of bond portfolios from 30 years to seven years (see Managing Bonds In A...

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Toward System Failure

    As I see it, our obligation to clients at Gavekal Dragonomics is not to make forecasts (they never work) but to explain events and identify likely winners and losers. Such an approach implies that we live in a world where policymakers have a semblance of rationality. My concern is that the negative interest rates policies currently being embraced in Europe fly in the face of this requirement. The implication is that foundational principles of...

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Modest Proposal To Save The World

    The last few years have been some of the most intellectually interesting of my career as the post financial crisis period has seen policymakers test the limits of economic theory, and push well beyond. Inspired by their example, I would like to post my small contribution to the sum of new knowledge that this era of extremes has thrown up.

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C Overview: Profits and Productivity

    Former West German leader Helmut Schmidt used to say: “The corporate profits of today are the investments of tomorrow and the jobs of the day after.” Put another way, higher labor productivity leads to increased profits, more jobs and a better standard of living. In this regard the chart below shows the link between US profits and productivity growth (centered on its historical mean of 2%). From 1968 to 1993, productivity variations preceded...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Panic or Process?

    In the past few months, we have seen surprise interest rate cuts from India, Australia, Russia, Turkey, China, Switzerland, Denmark... the list goes on. So what lies behind all these surprise cuts? Panic, or process? The arguments for panic are obvious, and include:

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Sweden: The Planets Are Aligning

    Asset allocation is—or at least should be—a process. Investors try to identify the favorable and unfavorable factors driving an asset’s performance, and monitor developments to identify where they stand in the investment cycle.

    2
Show me: results