E.g., 02-12-2021
E.g., 02-12-2021
We have found 915 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Debate: Inflation Or Bust?

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Thatcherite China

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C Overview: Panzers At The Border

    I have always been fascinated by those periods when the nomenclature of the day has settled on a risky strategy in the absence of any “plan B”. Think of France’s all-in bet on the Maginot line’s capacity to halt Blitzkrieg, or the fact that Japan’s military elite in WWII had no plan on how to settle for peace—it took the detonation of two atomic bombs for Emperor Hirohito to order his generals to sue for peace.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A New Kind Of Trigger Point

    19
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Back To German Bashing

    When Keynesian policies are failing, as they always do, proponents never fail to look for a scapegoat. Usually this is Germany, rebuked for the un-Keynesian practice of earning and saving. Our concern is that when German bashing reaches fever pitch, panic selling often follows. Think for example of the stock market crash in 1987, “created” by the fight between the US Treasury and the Bundesbank.

    15
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Forget The Yield Curve, Watch The Wicksellian Spread

    11
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C Overview: Stocks As A Lagging Indicator

    Stock markets are, by nature, leading indicators of future economic conditions. They are the first responders to changes in financing rates, demand, inflation expectations, etc. So long as returns on future investments are expected to be above the cost of capital, the millions of players in the stock market will bid up equities. If marginal returns move below the cost of capital, the market will go down, and so eventually will the economy. Fine...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Velocity In Asset Allocation

    This is the second in a two-part series of articles which aims to illustrate why investors ignore at their peril the pace at which money circulates through the financial system. In part one, I argued that ‘V’ as defined in the classic monetary formulation MV=PQ is an independent variable with the capacity to transform the investment weather (see A Fisherian Take On Velocity). I am endlessly amazed by the lack of attention that this vital...

    11
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    London Seminar September 2013 - Anatole, Andrew, Joyce, Francois and Charles

    For those who missed our seminar this week in London, see below links to the audio files to listen to our five speakers, and separate links to view their presentation slides. See below in order of speaker. The audio files may take a moment to open:

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C Overview: Waiting For Godot, And Capex

    In the Samuel Beckett play Waiting for Godot, we wait throughout the performance for the eponymous character to appear. A similarly fruitless wait seems to be affecting US capital spending, which according to every demand-side econometric model (think Keynesian) should be on the cusp of a surge. That at least has been the story for the last three years and capital spending is still going nowhere fast. The same is true for employment, which after...

    8
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Fisherian Take On Velocity

    Defining the velocity of money is not an easy task. John Maynard Keynes summed it up as the ‘animal spirits,’ the Austrians called it ‘the preference for liquidity,’ Knut Wicksell labeled it the spread between the ‘market rate’ of interest and ‘the natural rate.’ Joseph Schumpeter tied changes in velocity to entrepreneurs’ willingness to take risk, which in turn is tied to factors including the legal systems in which they operate, property...

    10
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Lambs That Turned

    Given recent events in Washington it might be worth looking at the basic relations that bind our modern democracies. Back in the age of enlightenment, the founding fathers of a young American republic thrashed out a system of government that allowed the majority to pursue life, liberty and happiness, while ensuring that democracy did not descend into mobocracy. As debate raged over appropriate constitutional arrangements, one Benjamin Franklin...

    59
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Using Wicksell To Manage Money

    All my life, I have conducted research by following two simple steps. Firstly, I try to understand the logic of the economic or financial system under consideration (economics is a branch of logic, itself a branch of philosophy rather than a subset of mathematics or even astrology). This is a messy and time-consuming process, but is aided by following the insights of great economists from times past.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Unwatched Variable

    The Federal Reserve has panicked and we can expect to hear yet more justification for the decision to drag out its great monetary experiment. Yesterday, we had FOMC leading light William Dudley opine on the conditions that must apply before those geniuses in Foggy Bottom can think about tapering. The only tangible impact from last week’s action has been to further weaken the dollar, which is exacerbating one of the most frequently overlooked...

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Panicked Fed Doubles Down

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Quarterly Strategy Chart Book - The Tug Of War

    The readjustment in global bond yields over the past couple of months has increased volatility across most asset classes. Some, such as US equities, weathered the storm relatively well, while others, like emerging markets and most bond markets, did very poorly.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Why Europe Is Still Broken

    Back in the day, playing European markets was a simple game. Industrial production across the European continent tended to rise and fall, pretty much in lock step with Germany’s IFO index of business activity. This relationship broke down with the creation of the euro and fully fractured after 2007. For example, consider yesterday’s worse than expected French industrial production, even while Germany continues to power ahead.

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Of Wicksell And Fed Fallacies

    Let's start with the great Wicksellian “insight”.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Are Interest Rates High Or Low?

    The debate over rising US bond yields seems simple. Either interest rates are now too high and will snuff out any hope of a sustainable recovery; or this is just a “normalization” from excessively low interest rates, and thus nothing to worry about. In fact, this is the wrong debate.

    10
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Free Money vs Growth

    9
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Of Dynamite Fishing And Whales

    13
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Young Man's Game

    I started in the fascinating business of trying to understand why markets go up and down in February 1971. The old money manager in the French bank which had hired me straight away said: "Charles, you will never get rich in this business using other people's money. Do NOT leverage your positions. Leverage might be all right for fellows who deal in real estate, but for those in stock markets, it only brings misery."

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C Europe: How To Invest

    At the risk of sounding obnoxious, investing in Europe has actually been quite simple for the better part of the last eight years. All one had to do was overweight the stock markets of the countries which did not belong to the euro and underweight those within the doomsday machine. Such a strategy would have ensured that the investor comfortably outperformed the main European benchmark.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C US: An Unusual Arbitrage Opportunity

    In a normal circumstances there is no particular reason to think the US stock market should outperform the UK stock market over the long term. Over many years I have argued that total return of the US stock market compared to the UK stock market offers no discernible trend—my series goes back to December 1969 and is based on reinvestment of dividends, price appreciation and currency changes.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Greek Tragedies Always End The Same

    28
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Supply-Sider’s View Of The UK

    Since 2000, central bankers and governments have competed to find “better” ways to direct economic activity. Interest rates, money supply and exchange rates have all been manipulated by clever fellows who are sure they are smarter than the markets. This meddlesome brood succumb to Hayek's “fatal conceit,” not because of their commercial success in the real world, but because they got the best grades at school.

    18
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Emergence Of A US Underclass

    ). This dour relationship has been maintained over the last two years and median income has, as I suspected, continued to fall. Make no mistake, if monetary policy is not substantially changed, then median incomes will continue to fall.

    50
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C Overview: Which Theorist Works Best?

    In response to a recent report which apparently had anti-Keynesian undertones, a reader asked me: well then, which economic framework do you use for macro-analysis? The answer is not that simple.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Southern Europe Walks On Thin Air

    Recent economic data releases suggest, on the face of it, that Southern Europe is enjoying an improved outlook. This weekend, Portugal’s government stared into the abyss and chose for the moment not to break the terms of its bailout. Hence, in recent months, GaveKal colleagues such as Francois have argued that economic conditions in the European periphery are stabilizing (see A New Global Growth Story). I would respectfully disagree. Regardless...

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (17 July 2013)

    In the latest Five Corners biweekly review of global economics and investment:

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    How Markets React To Exchange Rate Manipulation

    In my humble opinion there are certain economic issues which have passed the point of needing validation. Here are a few examples.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Bad Omens

    In late May we published a debate piece on the near-term outlook for equity markets. Since then, emerging markets have once again lived up to their name by proving themselves hard to emerge from during an emergency (in USD terms, Brazil is down –35% year to date while Chinese valuations are back to 2008-crisis levels); for their part, European and US equity markets have pulled back, while the only salvation has come from Japan (the one market...

    10
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (3 July 2013)

    In the latest Five Corners biweekly review of global economics and investment, Charles Gave expresses doubt about the supposed rebound in European industry, while Francois Chauchat looks at whether EMU peripheral bonds are a buy after recent sell-offs. We also have Will Denyer on US bonds/housing, Rosealea Yao on China's interbank drama and Cathy Holcombe on the rising emerging market middle classes. See more details below—and please click...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Better Dollar Tool Required

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    When To Buy US Long Bonds

    With yields having surged back to a near two year high, there is an increasingly strong case for buying US long bonds. The more interesting question surrounds the timing of such a move and the level of conviction that should be exhibited in building a position.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Volcker’s Return

    Despite the forests that have been sacrificed to explain the end of quantitative easing, it is very simple—Ben Bernanke seems to have finally done the right thing. Call it his Volcker moment.

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Quarterly Strategy Chart Book - The Fork In The Road

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Problem With Leading Indicators

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    More On The Deflationary Bust Risk

    As we look back throughout history, it quickly becomes obvious that Christopher Columbus was the world’s first modern central banker. He left without knowing where he was going, when he arrived he did not know where he was, and he did it all with other people’s money.

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (5 June 2013)

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    An Old Fashioned Deflationary Bust

    19
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Debate On Equity Markets

    Last week, Anatole published Goldilocks And The Ten Bears in which he addressed the ten most common complaints heard over the past year when developing a “bullish equity” thesis. Arguably, most of these complaints can be characterized as disproportionately focused on “fundamentals” (e.g., can we trust a rally fuelled by central bank liquidity creation). Of course, healthy bull markets rest on three pillars: sound fundamentals, attractive...

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Should One Short Germany?

    Some of our long-time readers may remember my quip, soon after the euro was launched, that a European monetary union will result in “too many houses in Spain, too many civil servants in France and too many factories in Germany.” One had to wait a while, but eventually those chickens began to come home to roost.

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Hong Kong Seminar - Charles, Joyce and Andrew

    At our recent Hong Kong seminar, Charles Gave presented on global currency wars, Joyce on Abenomics and Andrew on the goals of the new Chinese leadership.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Our April, 2013 London Seminar - Anatole, Tom, Francois and Charles

    At our recent seminar in London:

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    An Update On The French Disaster

    Last month I laid out the reasons why France was On The Brink Of A Secondary Depression—in short, due to a deadly collision of French politics with Frankensteinian monetary union. Unfortunately subsequent data confirms the bleak trajectory:

    12
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Implied Assumptions

    Financial markets operate on a number of implied assumptions about growth, policy direction and other factors. Experience tells us that these assumptions often turn out to be erroneous. The goal of this paper is simply to test the rationality of the current set of assumptions.

    9
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Social Purpose Of Tax Havens

    The Cahuzac affair in France has conveniently emerged just as the search for possible scapegoats to Europe’s quandary was intensifying. Thanks to the former French budget minister’s secret Swiss bank account, Europe can now move from its war against finance (Hollande declaring that finance was his enemy, the financial transaction tax, capping of bonuses, etc) to an outright war against tax havens (letting Cyprus sink, arm-twisting Luxembourg...

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A First Non-Euro Currency Debate

    Last Thursday the Bank of Japan stunned investors with a muscular monetary response that aims to break a deflationary cycle that had seemed to condemn Japan to permanent economic decline. In this piece we debate what the new policy settings mean for investors and crucially, seek to answer the trillion-yen question of where the Japanese currency is headed.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    France On The Brink Of A Secondary Depression

    13
Show me: results