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Gavekal Dragonomics
Rosealea Yao
Apr 05th 2019
Video: Chinese Property Is Slowing, Not Collapsing
Home sales in China fell by 3.6% in the first two months of 2019. This, however, was better than expected considering that this upcycle is now four years old. Lower mortgage rates and supportive policies by local governments should prop up demand, and Rosealea expects overall housing sales to decline a modest 2% for the year.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer, Udith Sikand
Apr 05th 2019
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call April 2019
In yesterday’s Gavekal Research Conference Call, Will Denyer and Udith Sikand addressed the changing US dollar liquidity environment, and its impact on markets.
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Gavekal Research
Cedric Gemehl, Charles Gave, Tom Miller, Anatole Kaletsky, Didier Darcet
Apr 03rd 2019
London Seminar — March 2019
Cedric Gemehl examined the possibility of a European rebound; Charles Gave argued the world is splitting into three distinct monetary zones; Tom Miller presented on the state of the US-China trade talks and the health of the Chinese economy; Anatole Kaletsky examined the risks to the bull market, and arrived at a bullish conclusion.
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews
Mar 27th 2019
Video: Europe's Response To China
Europe has an ambivalent relationship with China that is increasingly under scrutiny. The European Commission recently labelled China a “systemic rival” and France and Germany want to create corporate champions to compete against Chinese state owned enterprises. Europe, however, is not singing from the same hymn sheet.
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Gavekal Research
Tom Holland
Mar 21st 2019
Video: Intervention To Support The HKD Signals Strength, Not Weakness
In the last two weeks, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has been forced to sell US dollars in the foreign exchange market to maintain the Hong Kong Dollar's peg to the US dollar. Yet far from signaling a crisis, the interventions are a symptom of confidence in Hong Kong’s financial system, which is swimming with liquidity.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer
Mar 15th 2019
Video: The Fed's Potential Paradigm Shift
The Federal Reserve is debating a fundamental shift in its inflation targeting. Right now it's targeting 2% inflation no matter what it has been in the past, a so-called "bygones" policy. In this video interview Will discusses the consequences of switching to price-level targeting, where the aim is to keep average inflation over time at 2%.
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Gavekal Research
Andrew Batson, Long Chen
Mar 08th 2019
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call March 2019
In this research conference call, Andrew Batson and Chen Long discussed the improving outlook for the Chinese economy in 2019 and the implications for financial markets. Confirmation that the government is both willing and able to support growth has ignited an equity rally, while expectations of further easing measures still support bonds.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer
Mar 06th 2019
Video: Shifting Sands At The Fed
The US Federal Reserve has said it is likely to end its process of balance sheet “normalization” sooner than previously planned. This sounds like an obscure monetary technicality, but it has important implications for investors. In this video interview Will explains why.
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Feb 21st 2019
Video: What Kind Of US-China Deal?
In recent weeks, the US dollar has rallied, emerging markets have been strong and gold seems to be breaking out to the upside. That is an unusual combination, and in this video Louis outlines three possible explanations for the moves. Most provocatively, as the US-China trade talks get critical, he wonders if China is gearing up to accept a one-off revaluation of the renminbi.
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Gavekal Research
Dan Wang
Feb 15th 2019
Video: Containing China's Tech Ambitions
More constructive rhetoric suggests the US and China may be about to strike a truce on tariffs and market access. However, that does not mean they are about to bury the hatchet. Powerful groups in Washington want to contain China’s rise as a technological power, and the US has many tools at its disposal even if it drops tariffs.
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Gavekal Research
Charles Gave, Cedric Gemehl
Feb 05th 2019
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call February 2019
In the call yesterday, Charles Gave and Cedric Gemehl presented their views on the economic and political situation in Europe. Cedric outlined key risks facing Europe’s economy. If the worst is avoided, he thinks Europe could get a soft landing. Charles took a different view, arguing that the eurozone was now an irretrievably diverging system.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer
Feb 04th 2019
Video: Conflicting Signals From The US Labor Market
The US labor market is sending apparently contradictory signals. On one hand the unemployment rate ticked higher in January. On the other, job creation was much stronger than expected. Will looks behind the latest data points to examine the labor market’s underlying trends, and concludes they spell relatively bullish news for the US economy and risk assets over the coming months.
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews
Jan 24th 2019
Video: Skirting Recession In Europe?
This week the IMF has cut its GDP forecasts for European economies exposed to a synchronous global growth slowdown. Nick gauges the probability that core eurozone economies will fall into recession, examines the scope for stimulative policy responses and explores what the slowdown means for Europe’s financial markets.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer
Jan 17th 2019
Video: Beyond The Government Shutdown
As the US government shutdown threatens to enter its fifth week, Will looks back at previous shutdowns to weigh the likely impact on America’s economy and financial markets, against the backdrop of an aging economic cycle, flattening yield curve and tighter financial conditions.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Arthur Kroeber
Jan 11th 2019
Video: China In 2019
Washington and Beijing will likely find some kind of accommodation on trade and China’s economy will suffer a tough first quarter that sees the authorities adopt a range of counter-cyclical measures. In this video interview, Arthur outlines our key China views for 2019 and offers investment recommendations for the renminbi, bonds and the Chinese equity market.
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, Charles Gave
Dec 13th 2018
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call December 2018
In the final Gavekal Research Conference Call of the year, Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky and Charles Gave shared their perspectives on a year which has been challenging for all asset classes, and offered their thoughts on what could be in store for investors in 2019.
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Gavekal Research
Dan Wang
Nov 14th 2018
Video: The Battle For Chinese Tech
China imports more semiconductors than it does crude oil, highlighting its dependence on foreign technology and know-how. The US recognizes this weakness and is intent on squeezing China’s tech sector before it is able to produce the most advanced chips at home and in scale. For this reason, tech sits at the heart of the US-China tensions.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky, Charles Gave
Nov 09th 2018
London Seminar — October 2018
At Gavekal’s seminar in London last month Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky presented on whether the world is breaking up into three different monetary zones, and whether this is a correction to, or an end to, the long-running global bull market. Micahel Clendenin of Gavekal RedTech explained how they conduct research on the Chinese technology and internet sector.
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Gavekal Research
Yanmei Xie, Will Denyer, Arthur Kroeber
Nov 09th 2018
Hong Kong Seminar — November 2018
At Gavekal’s seminar in Hong Kong this week, Yanmei Xie, Arthur Kroeber and Will Denyer presented their latest views on China's economy, trade war, and how to approach asset allocation in the US.
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave, Udith Sikand, Long Chen
Oct 30th 2018
Beijing Seminar — October 2018
At Gavekal’s seminar in Beijing last week, Louis-Vincent Gave, Udith Sikand and Chen Long presented their latest views on the turn in global markets, the prospects for emerging markets in the quarters ahead, and on China's policy priorities as it faces down the US in a prolonged rivalry.
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Oct 19th 2018
Video: Why China Is Unlikely To Fold
To many outside observers, China’s economy looks like a house of cards that is vulnerable to collapse should the US push a little harder in its trade actions. Louis is not convinced that this market-focused analysis of China’s situation properly reflects its vulnerability. He thinks the leadership is dug in for a long struggle against Washington.
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave, Anatole Kaletsky
Oct 11th 2018
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call October 2018
In this month’s Research Conference Call Louis-Vincent Gave examined the present bad tidings from markets and asked whether the global bull market faces a denouement. Anatole Kaletsky argued that this sell-off will likely prove to be a temporary setback for emerging markets and that the global bull market may have further to run. However, he warned that the outcome will depend heavily on where the oil price goes from here.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer
Sep 14th 2018
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call September 2018
In this month’s research call, Will Denyer explains why he is still recommending a 75% equity exposure in a dedicated US portfolio. His call is based on an asset allocation method with three key components, namely, Wicksellian spreads, relative valuation tools, and a duration tool which shows how to divide a fixed income portfolio between bonds and cash.
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Sep 03rd 2018
Video: An Unexpected Investment Environment
With the exception of US equities, about the only other way most investors could have achieved a positive return this year was to have held US dollar cash. That has made for a very strange investment environment that few people saw coming. In this video interview, Louis reviews the experience of the last eight months and outlines potential scenarios for the remainder of 2018.
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Gavekal Research
Udith Sikand
Jul 25th 2018
Video: Understanding India’s Bad Loan Problem
India has won kudos for adopting a modern bankruptcy law that makes it easier for big lenders to clean house on a bad debt problem that has festered since the early 2000s. In this video interview Udith discusses how the new bankruptcy law has worked in practice, and whether it will be enough to solve Indian banks' bad debt problem.
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Gavekal Research
Dan Wang
Jul 17th 2018
Video: China's Technology Strategy
China has an ambitious industrial upgrading plan, called Made in China 2025, which targets Chinese leadership in about 30 technological segments. In this video interview Dan explains how the government aims to achieve this, how this plan differs from previous Chinese policy goals, and whether it is likely to succeed.
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber, Andrew Batson, Long Chen
Jul 12th 2018
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call July 2018
In this call Arthur Kroeber outlined his view on why President Donald Trump’s trade war is not a bluff, and is likely to escalate ahead of the US midterm elections in November; Andrew Batson explained the macro-level effects caused by all this uncertainty; and Chen Long discussed the market impacts in China and the country’s likely response.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky, Louis Gave, Charles Gave
Jun 11th 2018
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call June 2018
During Friday’s monthly call, Louis Gave addressed the direction of the US dollar and the impact of expanding US fiscal deficits. Anatole Kaletsky focused on the rise of populist politics, which remains his major concern. Charles Gave considered the impact of resurgent nationalism on the investment environment. There was also significant discussion of the oil price with Anatole and Louis taking differing positions.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer
Jun 08th 2018
Video: When To Buy US Bonds
With 10-year US treasury yields having failed so far to climb significantly above the 3% mark, investors are asking whether it is time to buy US long bonds. In this short video interview, Will presents a simple framework for approaching the bond market. With the yield curve flat by historical standards, and yields far below their natural ceiling set by returns on invested capital, investors should steer clear of long bonds.
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Gavekal Research
Udith Sikand
May 31st 2018
Video: Malaysia's Old Man In A Hurry
In elections earlier this month, Mahathir Mohamad stunnned Malaysia, defeating the party he led for 20 years to become the country’s new prime minister. In this short video interview, Udith examines Mahathir’s policy platform, and asks whether the resurgent 92-year-old can really rejuvenate Malaysia’s economy.
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Gavekal Research
Tom Holland
May 17th 2018
Video: The Hong Kong Peg Under Pressure
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has again been intervening in the foreign exchange market after it stepped in last month when the Hong Kong dollar fell to its weakest in 35 years. So far the HKMA has bought HKD62bn, selling almost US$8bn to defend the Hong Kong dollar’s peg to the US dollar. In this video interview, Tom Holland explains what’s going on, and why there is zero risk Hong Kong will be forced to devalue its currency.
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber
Apr 18th 2018
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call April 2018
During yesterday’s monthly call, Arthur Kroeber addressed rising geoeconomic and geopolitical tensions between the world’s two biggest economies. He argued that US moves against China ran far deeper than trade tariffs as actors across the political spectrum in Washington were intent on changing China’s basic economic model, something that Beijing will likely fiercely resist. Much of his focus was on the tech sector, which is front-and-center of...
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber, Rosealea Yao, Nick Andrews
Apr 13th 2018
Hong Kong Seminar — April 2018
At Gavekal’s seminar in Hong Kong this week, Arthur Kroeber, Rosealea Yao and Nick Andrews presented their latest views on the brewing trade war between the US and China, Chinese growth and the property market outlook, and how to capture European growth.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Tom Miller
Apr 05th 2018
Video: Making Sense Of China's New Era
In this lively presentation from our recent London seminar, Tom Miller outlines the dramatic political changes that have been taking place in China. He explains what Xi Jinping’s new status means for economic policy and governance, and how the links between the Communist Party and the state are being strengthened.
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Gavekal Research
Joyce Poon
Mar 29th 2018
Video: Can The EM Run Last?
In this video interview Joyce discusses why profits should drive a maturing cycle in EMs that increasingly favors commodity-focused markets outside of Asia, and the risks to such a benign scenario.
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Gavekal Research
Charles Gave, Tom Miller, Cedric Gemehl, Anatole Kaletsky
Mar 23rd 2018
London Seminar — March 2018
In our seminar in London this week Charles pondered the investment consequences of the US moving back into an inflationary period. Tom discussed Chinese politics in light of Xi Jinping’s elevation. Cedric presented on how investors can best benefit from the diversity of the European economy. Anatole explained why the long-running global bull market is likely to continue, but also where the risks are buried.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer
Mar 16th 2018
Video: Fixing The Model
Earlier this week Will issued a mea culpa report that explained why he was revising his Wicksellian asset allocation model and substantially changing his recommendations for the US market. In this video interview he explains the story behind this revision.
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Gavekal Research
Mar 12th 2018
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call March 2018
In last week’s Research Conference Call Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews presented a thematic approach for playing the European growth story. Cedric explained why the major stock indexes fail to capture the geographical and sectoral potential in Europe, and Nick proposed specific investment themes that should allow investors to benefit from Europe’s continued expansion.
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Gavekal Research
Long Chen
Mar 02nd 2018
Video: Surviving China's Regulatory Storm
Scarcely a week goes by without word of some new regulatory crackdown on China’s financial services industry. After years of financial liberalization, runaway growth in the shadow banking market, and rampant regulatory arbitrage, the authorities are now moving to unify a fragmented regulatory regime and contain the risks posed by excessive leverage and complexity. In this video interview, Chen Long makes sense of the about-face and explains what...
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Gavekal Research
Feb 19th 2018
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call February 2018
In last week’s Research Conference Call Andrew Batson outlined the risks—both downside and upside—to the Chinese economy in 2018. Yanmei Xie focused on the risk of overzealous implementation of policy. This is especially the case for environmental regulations, which gave Beijing an uncharacteristically smog-free winter, but at the cost of a natural gas shortage.
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Gavekal Research
Yanmei Xie
Feb 14th 2018
Video: Freeze-Thaw Conditions In Korea
It has been a week of confusing signals from the Korean peninsula. Even as North Korea has paraded its missiles, and the US and its allies have sworn to exert “maximum pressure” against Kim Jong-Un’s rogue regime, both sides have hinted at their readiness to return to the negotiating table. Yanmei cuts through the fog to assess the future trajectory of North Korean event risk.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer
Feb 02nd 2018
Video: Playing The US Growth Picture
Will outlines his view that real growth in the US will remain stable this year and that inflation will pick up, and discusses what this means for asset prices and portfolio construction.
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Gavekal Research
Cedric Gemehl
Jan 18th 2018
Video: The Next Phase Of Europe's Recovery
Cedric expects 2018 to confirm the eurozone economy as moving from recovery to expansion. Hence, four key macroeconomic trends that emerged in 2017 should become paramount this year.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky, Louis Gave, Arthur Kroeber
Jan 17th 2018
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call January 2018
In Gavekal’s monthly research call yesterday, Louis Gave reviewed evidence that the investment environment is experiencing a once-in-a-generation shift from a deflationary environment to one that is broadly inflationary. Anatole Kaletsky argued that this metamorphosis will likely be an orderly affair. Arthur Kroeber updated his view on China’s likely impact on global commodity markets.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Dec 14th 2017
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research December Call
In Gavekal Research’s monthly conference call yesterday Anatole Kaletsky outlined five reasons why investors can be optimistic that the current bull market will continue for years to come. His bullishness is moderated by three broad risks.
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Gavekal Research
Udith Sikand
Nov 29th 2017
Video: The Pain Before The Gain
India reports its third quarter GDP tomorrow and Udith offers an assessment of the economy. He expect the official numbers to show a pick-up in growth due to firms restocking after the rollout of the new Goods & Services Tax and thinks this trajectory will continue through to next year. He advise investors to stick with richly-valued equities, treat bonds cautiously and not worry too much about a currency correction.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky, Long Chen, Cedric Gemehl, Charles Gave
Nov 22nd 2017
New York Seminar — November 2017
At Gavekal's November seminar in New York Louis Gave, Arthur Kroeber, Cedric Gemehl and Anatole Kaletsky presented their macro outlooks and investment recommendations.
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Gavekal Research
Udith Sikand
Nov 10th 2017
Video: Escaping The Indian Funk
Udith presented on India during Gavekal's Hong Kong seminar in November. This video also includes relevant excerpts from the question and answer session.
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Gavekal Research
Nov 10th 2017
Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research November Call
In our monthly research conference call yesterday, Will Denyer outlined his case that demographic factors explain much of the decline in interest rates over the last 30 or so years. His point is that we are nearing a turning point in the global demand-supply relationship for loanable funds and the overall direction of interest rates should be higher.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky, Long Chen, Cedric Gemehl, Charles Gave
Oct 30th 2017
London Seminar — October 2017
Anatole argued that the investment environment should remain upbeat given predictable monetary policy and a global cyclical upturn. Chen Long contended that China’s post-Party Congress slowdown should be gradual. Cedric made a bullish case for European equities, while Charles presented Gavekal’s latest artificial intelligence investment tools.