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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Self-Sustaining Eurozone Recovery

    A broadening and deepening of the eurozone’s economic recovery suggests that the expansion has finally become self-sustaining. The worry is that a political shock from upcoming national elections tips the single currency area back into crisis. Nick Andrews does not think such a bearish outcome is likely, and in this video explains his preferred investment strategy.

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    Gavekal Research

    Hong Kong Seminar — February 2017

    Gavekal’s global macroeconomic seminar in Hong Kong in February featured Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer and Louis-Vincent Gave. They presented on the global investment outlook under a Trump presidency, the decline in US productivity, and the sustainability of the "Trumpflation" rally.

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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research February Call

    In Gavekal Research’s February conference call, Louis-Vincent Gave delves into the unexpected origins of the reflation trade in order to assess its future prospects. And Arthur Kroeber unpicks the combative rhetoric emanating from Washington to gauge the probability of heightened trade friction between the United States and China.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: India After Demonetization

    Udith discusses the effects of India's demonetization last year on the growth of the economy

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Making Sense Of US Trade Tax Plans

    Yesterday Donald Trump met members of Congress to discuss a 20% tax on imports into the US. However, what is being proposed is not an outright tariff, but rather a system of “border tax adjustments”. Will explains what these are, how they will work, and what effect they will have on the US dollar and the real economy.

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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research January Call

    Charles Gave argued that Donald Trump’s protectionist policy could lead to a breakdown of the post-1971 fiat money system that is based on a US dollar standard. Will Denyer deconstructed the likely workings of a new trade taxation regime in the US and explained what that means for currencies. Arthur Kroeber outlined the likely Chinese response to a US trade broadside and argued that Beijing was decently well placed to weather the attack.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: A Coming US-China Trade War?

    In this video interview Arthur explains how a US-China trade war may play out and the implication for capital outflows from China

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Dissonance In US-China Relations

    Once Donald Trump occupies the White House he is sure to take aim at China in the form of new tariffs, anti-dumping actions and the labeling of the country as a currency manipulator. What is unclear is whether such actions reflect a tough negotiating stance, or instead a fundamental shift in the strategic equation. In this video interview, Arthur explains why the mixed messages coming out of Washington have the potential to spark a dangerous...

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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research December Call

    Louis and Anatole outlined their views on the new investment environment. Louis focused on the apparent contradictions in investors’ reaction to Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election. Anatole argued that the US has almost certainly transitioned to a more inflationary growth path, but said it would be a slow build-up.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: European Political Dominos

    In the aftermath of the Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election, attention has shifted to the eurozone with the assumption that more dominos must topple under the gathering populist political wave. In this video interview Nick considers the good, the bad and the ugly of the European political scene and offers pointers for navigating these risks.

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    Gavekal Research

    Stagnation or Bust? A Wicksellian Chart Dashboard

    For users’ convenience, we provide below the complete set of charts published in Charles Gave’s November 2016 book Stagnation or Bust? A Wicksellian View of the Natural Interest Rate, the Market Rate and Asset Allocation, with interactive graphics available for Macrobond subscribers.

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    Gavekal Research

    Hong Kong Seminar — November 2016

    Arthur Kroeber presented his thoughts on the outcome of the US election, as well as an analysis of China's leadership politics. Will Denyer presented his thoughts on the US economy. Tom Miller gave an optimistic take on reforms in India under Modi's government.

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    Gavekal Research

    Arthur Kroeber: A New Era Of Sino-US Relations

    While Donald Trump has threatened to slap huge tariffs on Chinese exports, Arthur thinks this would be an act of self-harm given the economic co-dependence between China and the US. In this video interview, he maps out the likely evolution of relations between the two countries in the years ahead.

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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research November Call

    Anatole Kaletsky, Arthur Kroeber and Charles Gave presented their views on what a Donald Trump presidency means. Anatole outlined both positive and negative potential outcomes. On the positive side, US growth could see a boost from expansionary fiscal policy, but isolationist trade policies could threaten US firms and equity prices. Arthur warned of the geopolitical risk of a power vacuum should the US pull back from its treaty obligations....

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    Gavekal Research

    Arthur Kroeber: What A Trump Presidency Means

    This is an excerpt from Arthur Kroeber's presentation at Gavekal's Hong Kong seminar on November 10. In this video Arthur presents his initial thoughts on the changes in the political situation in the US, and what it means for the rest of the world.

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  • Gavekal Research

    Joyce Poon: Market Timing In Asia

    Investors need to get nimbler in playing Emerging Asia’s equity markets due to the lack of any clear trend that dates back to 2010. Joyce outlines a trading strategy that can potentially make a big difference to performance.

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    Gavekal Research

    Neil Newman: Japanese Equities — Good For A Rally?

    The Bank of Japan has rolled back the date that it expects to hit its 2% inflation target, the economy is soft and foreign investors have thoroughly given up on Japanese equities. So why does Neil think there is a good chance of a decent “Santa rally” going into the year end. In this video interview he explains.

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    Gavekal Research

    Will Denyer: Assessing US Recession Risk

    Despite recent headline data releases being mildly encouraging, Will is worried that the US economy is limping toward recession territory. In this video interview he discusses his framework for assessing the US economy and proposes investment strategies to deal with what he sees as the two most likely scenarios; namely, an outright contraction or a mild growth pick-up associated with rising inflation.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Andrew Batson: What Next For Chinese Growth?

    Chinese policymakers are set on maintaining economic stability ahead of a crucial Communist Party meeting next year—but while that means stabilizing growth it also means pushing back against a property bubble. In this video interview, Andrew assesses the tactical trade-offs that must be made in support of the strategy of stability.

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    Gavekal Research

    London Seminar — October 2016

    Charles Gave, Joyce Poon, Tom Miller and Anatole Kaletsky outlined their views on issues ranging from the end of the Pax Americana, global asset allocation in the face of increasingly ineffectual monetary policy, India's growth potential, and the imminent uncertainty for markets in the face of political risk.

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