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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research November Call

    Anatole Kaletsky, Arthur Kroeber and Charles Gave presented their views on what a Donald Trump presidency means. Anatole outlined both positive and negative potential outcomes. On the positive side, US growth could see a boost from expansionary fiscal policy, but isolationist trade policies could threaten US firms and equity prices. Arthur warned of the geopolitical risk of a power vacuum should the US pull back from its treaty obligations....

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    Gavekal Research

    Arthur Kroeber: What A Trump Presidency Means

    This is an excerpt from Arthur Kroeber's presentation at Gavekal's Hong Kong seminar on November 10. In this video Arthur presents his initial thoughts on the changes in the political situation in the US, and what it means for the rest of the world.

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    Joyce Poon: Market Timing In Asia

    Investors need to get nimbler in playing Emerging Asia’s equity markets due to the lack of any clear trend that dates back to 2010. Joyce outlines a trading strategy that can potentially make a big difference to performance.

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    Gavekal Research

    Neil Newman: Japanese Equities — Good For A Rally?

    The Bank of Japan has rolled back the date that it expects to hit its 2% inflation target, the economy is soft and foreign investors have thoroughly given up on Japanese equities. So why does Neil think there is a good chance of a decent “Santa rally” going into the year end. In this video interview he explains.

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    Gavekal Research

    Will Denyer: Assessing US Recession Risk

    Despite recent headline data releases being mildly encouraging, Will is worried that the US economy is limping toward recession territory. In this video interview he discusses his framework for assessing the US economy and proposes investment strategies to deal with what he sees as the two most likely scenarios; namely, an outright contraction or a mild growth pick-up associated with rising inflation.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Andrew Batson: What Next For Chinese Growth?

    Chinese policymakers are set on maintaining economic stability ahead of a crucial Communist Party meeting next year—but while that means stabilizing growth it also means pushing back against a property bubble. In this video interview, Andrew assesses the tactical trade-offs that must be made in support of the strategy of stability.

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    Gavekal Research

    London Seminar — October 2016

    Charles Gave, Joyce Poon, Tom Miller and Anatole Kaletsky outlined their views on issues ranging from the end of the Pax Americana, global asset allocation in the face of increasingly ineffectual monetary policy, India's growth potential, and the imminent uncertainty for markets in the face of political risk.

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    Gavekal Research

    Tan Kai Xian & Leonor du Jeu: The US Trade Deficit Conundrum

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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research October Call

    Will Denyer presented a newly minted dynamic asset allocation tool which was developed from an ROIC-based framework that has helped us to better map and predict US economic cycles. He then answered listener questions on these themes.

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    Gavekal Research

    Pierre Gave: Can Sweden Escape The Negative Rate Trap?

    On the surface, Sweden’s two-year experiment with zero, and then negative, interest rates appears to have worked well. Growth is strong by developed world standards, and the economy has escaped deflation. But this success has come at the price of an asset price bubble that looks increasingly dangerous. Pierre Gave assesses the risk, and examines possible exit routes for the Riksbank.

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    Gavekal Research

    Singapore Seminar—September 2016

    Audio and video from the latest Gavekal seminar in Singapore is available here. Louis Gave explains why financial markets have recently behaved predictably, and why that is about to change. Andrew Batson explains why Chinese policy making is in a holding pattern until next year's party congress is settled. Udith Sikand explains why this year's emerging market outperformance is likely to continue, as bonds and especially equities have...

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    Gavekal Research

    Neil Newman: BoJ Policy Meeting In A Nutshell

    After the Bank of Japan’s announcement earlier today of quantitative easing “with yield curve control”, Neil delivers a quick-fire video assessment of the new policy slant, and what it will mean for markets and the broader Japanese economy.

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    Gavekal Research

    Will & KX: Soft Growth And Volatile Markets

    Will and KX present the quick view on the US economy and financial markets

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    Gavekal Research

    Gavekal Research Monthly Conference Call — September 2016

    In the inaugural Gavekal Research monthly conference call, Louis, Anatole and Arthur addressed the global growth environment and offered asset allocation suggestions.

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    Gavekal Research

    Monthly Conference Call Transcript — September 2016

    This is an unedited transcript provided by the conference call host.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Video: Is China At A Crisis Point?

    Fresh off the publication earlier this year of his book on China, Arthur in this video interview explains China’s long-term economic development strategy before zooming in to answer the key questions that currently vex investors, namely, the trajectory of growth and the potential for a severe financial crisis.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Yield Chasing—What Could Go Wrong?

    Louis outlines his view on this summer's unusual global economy and offers investment advice going forward into autumn.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Italy's Constitutional Referendum

    Nick presents what's at stake in Italy's upcoming constitutional referendum, and what it could mean for the European Union

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Politics Of Italy's Referendum

    Stefano Capacci On The Politics Of Italy's Referendum

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    Video: Indian Growth And Demographics

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    Video: Risks In US High Dividend Stocks

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    Gavekal Research

    Conference Call: Investment Scenarios After Brexit

    Gavekal partners Anatole Kaletsky, Charles Gave and Louis-Vincent Gave detail their investment scenarios following last week’s Brexit vote.

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    Gavekal Research

    New York Seminar—May 2016

    We are pleased to present audio from our seminar in New York earlier this week with Charles Gave, Will Denyer, Anatole Kaletsky and Arthur Kroeber

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    Gavekal Research

    Hong Kong Seminar Multimedia

    We are pleased to present recordings and slides from our Hong Kong seminar with Louis-Vincent Gave, Will Denyer and Andrew Batson. Louis examines an important recent development: the US dollar has stopped rising. Will diagnoses the health of the US economy in one chart. And Andrew discusses three scenarios for China: doom, boom and muddle-through.

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    Gavekal Research

    Paris Seminar—April 2016

    On April 12 Louis-Vincent Gave, Charles Gave and Jean-Jacques Netter held a seminar in Paris where they presented their latest macroeconomic and investment outlooks.

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    Gavekal Research

    London Seminar—April 2016

    London Seminar—April 2016

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: On Wicksellian Theory

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: On India's Growth

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    Gavekal Research

    QSCB: The State Of The US Economy

    The US economy displays some worrying signs. Corporate profits have contracted, credit spreads have jumped and inventories are piling up. By the same token, the consumer looks in decent shape as wages rise, oil prices continue to fall and moderate household leverage provides a clear tail wind. So what gives?

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: On The US Economy

    For a deeper dive, read the Quarterly Strategy Chartbook: The State Of The US Economy here.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: On Brexit

    Nick Andrews discusses the possibility of a "Brexit"

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: "Now Or Never For Vietnam"

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    Gavekal Research

    London Seminar Presentation Slides - October 2015

    These are the London Seminar presentation slides from October 2015

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    Gavekal Research

    London Seminar Audio And Slides

    We held our main fall seminar on October 27 in London, where Anatole Kaletsky, Francois-Xavier Chauchat, Neil Newman, Tom Miller and Louis-Vincent Gave presented their views on the global economy. Anatole discussed the implications of recent developments in financial markets; Francois examined Europe’s resilience to global headwinds; Neil outlined three major investment themes in Japan; Tom explored China’s regional foreign policy ambitions, and...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    London Seminar: The Aggresively Friendly Giant

    What sort of country is China, and what sort of power does it want to be? In this presentation to our seminar in London, Tom Miller explains how to understand the signals China’s leaders have been sending. China wants to pursue great-power status, a process that may alienate its neighbors and will require adjustments from the US.

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    Gavekal Research

    Excerpt From Anatole Kaletsky's Hong Kong Seminar Presentation

    Excerpt From Anatole Kaletsky's Hong Kong Seminar Presentation

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    Gavekal Research

    Hong Kong Seminar

    This is the full recording from Gavekal's October Hong Kong seminar featuring Joyce Poon, Andrew Batson and Anatole Kaletsky as well as a Q&A session.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Hong Kong Seminar: Housing Explains Everything

    What is the best way to sort through the complexities of China’s enormous, continent-sized economy? In this presentation to our seminar in Hong Kong, Andrew argues that if you understand what’s going on in the housing market, then you know pretty much everything you need to know about the Chinese economy.

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    Gavekal Research

    Louis on leadership in the East and West

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    Gavekal Research

    Conference Call Following The Renminbi Devaluation

    After the renminbi’s devaluation investors have been left with more questions than answers. In this conference call, Louis Gave assesses the resulting investment scenarios for China and the rest of the world.

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    Gavekal Research

    MULTIMEDIA - Louis Talks About Europe On Radio Show Streettalklive

    Louis was recently interviewed on the radio program streettalklive, where the talk unsurprisingly centered on the European crisis. Those who would like to listen to this lively discussion can download or stream the audio file, split into two parts:

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    Gavekal Research

    Multimedia Archive

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