Gavekal Dragonomics

Tom Miller

Apr 05th 2018

In this lively presentation from our recent London seminar, Tom Miller outlines the dramatic political changes that have been taking place in China. He explains what Xi Jinping’s new status means for economic policy and governance, and how the links between the Communist Party and the state are being strengthened.

Gavekal Research

Charles Gave, Tom Miller, Cedric Gemehl, Anatole Kaletsky

Mar 23rd 2018

In our seminar in London this week Charles pondered the investment consequences of the US moving back into an inflationary period. Tom discussed Chinese politics in light of Xi Jinping’s elevation. Cedric presented on how investors can best benefit from the diversity of the European economy. Anatole explained why the long-running global bull market is likely to continue, but also where the risks are buried.

Gavekal Research

Mar 12th 2018

In last week’s Research Conference Call Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews presented a thematic approach for playing the European growth story. Cedric explained why the major stock indexes fail to capture the geographical and sectoral potential in Europe, and Nick proposed specific investment themes that should allow investors to benefit from Europe’s continued expansion.

Gavekal Research

Feb 19th 2018

In last week’s Research Conference Call Andrew Batson outlined the risks—both downside and upside—to the Chinese economy in 2018. Yanmei Xie focused on the risk of overzealous implementation of policy. This is especially the case for environmental regulations, which gave Beijing an uncharacteristically smog-free winter, but at the cost of a natural gas shortage.

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Will Denyer

Feb 02nd 2018

Will outlines his view that real growth in the US will remain stable this year and that inflation will pick up, and discusses what this means for asset prices and portfolio construction.

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Anatole Kaletsky, Louis Gave, Arthur Kroeber

Jan 17th 2018

In Gavekal’s monthly research call yesterday, Louis Gave reviewed evidence that the investment environment is experiencing a once-in-a-generation shift from a deflationary environment to one that is broadly inflationary. Anatole Kaletsky argued that this metamorphosis will likely be an orderly affair. Arthur Kroeber updated his view on China’s likely impact on global commodity markets.

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Udith Sikand

Nov 29th 2017

India reports its third quarter GDP tomorrow and Udith offers an assessment of the economy. He expect the official numbers to show a pick-up in growth due to firms restocking after the rollout of the new Goods & Services Tax and thinks this trajectory will continue through to next year. He advise investors to stick with richly-valued equities, treat bonds cautiously and not worry too much about a currency correction.

Gavekal Research

Udith Sikand

Nov 10th 2017

Udith presented on India during Gavekal's Hong Kong seminar in November. This video also includes relevant excerpts from the question and answer session.

Gavekal Research

Anatole Kaletsky, Chen Long, Cedric Gemehl, Charles Gave

Oct 30th 2017

Anatole argued that the investment environment should remain upbeat given predictable monetary policy and a global cyclical upturn. Chen Long contended that China’s post-Party Congress slowdown should be gradual. Cedric made a bullish case for European equities, while Charles presented Gavekal’s latest artificial intelligence investment tools.

Gavekal Research

Louis Gave

Oct 18th 2017

After Louis wrote up today’s Daily on the strange dichotomy between strong growth and moribund yields, we sat down to quiz him further on how this contradiction gets resolved. In this short video, he explains why the bond market is the thing that will probably have to give.

Gavekal Research

Charles Gave

Oct 11th 2017

In yesterday's monthly call Charles Gave outlined his bullish view on Japan. He argued that Japan has exited its long debt trap and is about to start a new cycle that will be substantially driven by capital spending. The fact that corporate Japan is sitting on US$4trn of domestic savings means this expansion can be funded without borrowing and so the risk of an interest rate shock is negligible. He also argued that the Bank of Japan is on...

Gavekal Research

Louis Gave

Sep 08th 2017

In yesterday’s monthly call Louis Gave presented his view on the global investment outlook for the rest of the year. He argued that the key story so far in 2017 has been the strong performance of Asian equities, which has added a second leg to a bull market led by US technology and consumer stocks. The question is whether this can last.

Gavekal Research

Tom Miller, Udith Sikand

Aug 10th 2017

In this week's call Tom Miller and Udith Sikand presented their view on India's macroeconomic situation and opportunities for foreign investors. Tom outlined the broad macro fundamentals and assessed the Modi government's progress in reforming the economy. Udith presented the investment consequences, expecting a capex revival to begin as soon as next year.

Gavekal Research

Thomas Gatley, Chen Long

Jul 13th 2017

Recent efforts to open up China's stock and bond markets have granted deeper access for foreign investors. In Tuesday's conference call Thomas Gatley outlined what MSCI's decision to include A-shares in its indexes means for investors, while Chen Long argued that the next great bond bull market may happen in China.

Gavekal Research

Yanmei Xie

Jul 06th 2017

In this brief video interview Yanmei Xie outlines the ever-shrinking list of options the US has for solving the problem of a nuclear-armed North Korea. The risk of military action remains slim, but with North Korea's recent test of an intercontinental ballistic missile it is no longer unthinkable.

Gavekal Research

Neil Newman

Jun 09th 2017

Japanese equities recently touched a 17-year high in US dollar terms and perhaps more significantly, they appear to have decoupled from their usually tight inverse relationship with the yen. In this video interview Neil considers both cyclical and structural reasons for the apparent breakout and concludes that investors should not underweight a market that has plenty of tailwinds.

Gavekal Research

Udith Sikand

May 24th 2017

In this interview Udith discusses the key developments in India’s macro economy and markets, which have been clouded by the demonetization episode and yet more changes to national economic statistics. The fog may not be about to clear as the government prepares to roll out a new national goods and sales tax with the potential for significant economic disruption.

Gavekal Research

Nick Andrews

May 15th 2017

The consensus is for a tortuous few years of negotiations between the UK and the European Union over the terms of Brexit and any subsequent free trade agreement. Following up on today’s Daily, Nick argues in this video interview that a deal may be easier than most people think. Moreover, the template for an FTA may already be in place.

Gavekal Research

Cedric Gemehl, Charles Gave, Anatole Kaletsky

Apr 25th 2017

In a special Gavekal Research Conference Call following the results of the first round of the French presidential election, Charles Gave and Cedric Gemehl presented their analysis of Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron’s prospects in the second round in two weeks. Anatole Kaletsky presented his view of British politics and the future of the Brexit process following Theresa May calling for a snap election in June.

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Charles Gave

Apr 12th 2017

In this follow-up to yesterday’s interview Charles outlines how investors can position themselves to hedge against a European Union breakup scenario that would likely follow from a Le Pen victory in the French presidential election.

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Will Denyer, Charles Gave, Tom Miller, Anatole Kaletsky

Apr 05th 2017

In Gavekal’s seminar in London last week Will Denyer, Charles Gave, Tom Miller and Anatole Kaletsky presented their macroeconomic outlooks and offered investors asset allocation advice.

Gavekal Research

Cedric Gemehl, Nick Andrews, Anatole Kaletsky

Mar 17th 2017

Yesterday’s call had Cedric Gemehl and Anatole Kaletsky opine on political risk leading up to French and German national elections later this year. Nick Andrews argued that the eurozone recovery is becoming self-sustaining, and offered views on capturing the upside, while hedging against political risk.

Gavekal Research

Louis Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer

Feb 22nd 2017

Gavekal’s global macroeconomic seminar in Hong Kong in February featured Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer and Louis-Vincent Gave. They presented on the global investment outlook under a Trump presidency, the decline in US productivity, and the sustainability of the "Trumpflation" rally.

Gavekal Research

Udith Sikand

Feb 14th 2017

Udith discusses the effects of India's demonetization last year on the growth of the economy