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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer
Feb 25th 2021
Video: Bitcoin—Money Or Snakeoil?
Will Denyer examines the forces behind the eye-watering run-up and eye-popping volatility of bitcoin, and delves behind the near-term moves in crypto-currency markets to ask whether bitcoin and its ilk will ever gain traction as a unit of account, means of exchange or store of value.
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Gavekal Research
Udith Sikand, Vincent Tsui, Tom Miller
Feb 19th 2021
Webinar: Emerging Markets In The Next Phase Of The Pandemic
Emerging markets have had a strong run, fueled by floods of stimulus in developed markets. Much of that money has flowed to Asia, where export sectors have thrived on rich-world consumers’ demand for electronics and other goods. The question is whether Asian EMs will be able to keep up this outperformance as they lag far behind in the vaccination race. Our team addressed these issues, and considered whether commodity-based EMs can again have...
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Gavekal Research
Yanmei Xie, Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian
Feb 10th 2021
Webinar: The Economic Impact Of A New Era
Vaccines, fiscal stimulus and cheap money are working together to bolster the outlook for growth and inflation in the United States. The US is also under new leadership with new priorities. Our US team of analysts explained what this all means for the economy and asset markets.
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Gavekal Research
Udith Sikand
Feb 08th 2021
Video: An Indian Blowout?
Indian risk assets have ripped in response to last week's big-spending budget, and reports that a collapse in Covid-19 cases points to the country having achieved "herd immunity" ahead of max vaccinations. In this video, Udith considers both India's public health situation and the chances of fiscal stimulus kick-starting growth without spurring an adverse financial reaction.
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Gavekal Research
Charles Gave, Didier Darcet, Louis Gave
Feb 05th 2021
Webinar: Uncharted Territory And Portfolio Construction
Charles has sought to codify his many investment rules into a rigorous portfolio construction framework, which includes identifying periods when returns stop being normally distributed and move into the "tails". Right now markets could be going through a phase change, and in this webinar, he explained why. He was joined by Didier, who who heads the quant team in Paris, and Louis.
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Gavekal Research
Yanmei Xie
Feb 02nd 2021
Video: The State Of Biden’s Stimulus
After Joe Biden set out plans for a US$1.9trn mega-stimulus, US Senate Republicans have countered with proposals for a relatively meager US$600bn package. In this video interview, Yanmei examines the options and weighs the possible outcomes.
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Gavekal Research
Charles Gave, Cedric Gemehl, Didier Darcet
Jan 29th 2021
Webinar: French-Language Webinar, January 2021
With Europe being hit hard by a second wave of Covid-19 and facing fresh lockdowns, Charles and Cedric assessed the outlook for the region’s growth and inflation in both the short and medium term. The webinar also focused on portfolio construction work being done by our Paris team: quantitative head of research Didier and Charles trained their sights on behavioral finance and suggested a route map for managing money in a “post-Keynesian” world.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Ernan Cui, Rosealea Yao, Wei He
Jan 28th 2021
Webinar: The Outlook For China In 2021
China enters 2021 having achieved a world-leading recovery, but now faces a tricky balancing act to secure its economic trajectory. Ernan Cui, Rosealea Yao and Wei He discussed how the authorities are responding to the latest rebound in Covid cases, what their strategy is for dealing with a frothy property market, and how they will balance growth with financial stability.
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews
Jan 28th 2021
Video: The UK — At The Center Of The Maelstrom
It’s been an especially stormy start to the year for the United Kingdom, which finds itself at ground zero for the spread of a new and highly infectious strain of the coronavirus, even as it struggles to cope with withdrawal from the European Union’s single market and customs zone. Yet the UK’s financial markets are performing relatively respectably year-to-date as investors focus on the UK’s strong vaccination performance and look ahead to the...
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer, Arthur Kroeber
Jan 22nd 2021
Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, January 2021
A Democratic US administration is set to control all arms of the US government for the first time since 2010. Will this mean a fiscal blowout, causing big changes in the pricing of treasuries and the US dollar? Louis, Anatole and Will assess the possibilities.
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Gavekal Research
Udith Sikand
Jan 21st 2021
Video: The Good And Bad News For Emerging Markets
US president Joe Biden’s planned US$1.9trn fiscal support package for the American economy may provide a metaphorical shot in the arm for at least some emerging markets, partially offsetting the negative economic effects caused by the delayed rollout of actual coronavirus inoculations. Udith assesses the conflicting forces affecting emerging economies.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky, Cedric Gemehl, Nick Andrews
Jan 20th 2021
Webinar: Europe’s Cruel Winter
As the pandemic intensifies across Europe growth prospects in the first quarter are dimming, but investors are focused on a potential economic reopening by the spring. In yesterday’s webinar, Anatole Kaletsky, Nick Andrews and Cedric Gemehl discussed whether markets are overly optimistic since the European Union seems to have botched its vaccine procurement strategy.
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber
Jan 14th 2021
Video: China's Post-Pandemic Roadmap
A year after Covid-19 was first revealed in China, the country has emerged as one of the key economic winners of the global pandemic. In this video interview, Arthur assesses how it did this and looks at the new priorities for Chinese industrial development in a world that has become less open and more suspicious of Chinese intentions. He seeks to answer these questions with reference to US trade and technology policy toward China as a new...
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Louis Gave, Arthur Kroeber, Thomas Gatley, Wei He, Dan Wang
Dec 09th 2020
Webinar: China And The World Economy In 2021
Arthur Kroeber and Dan Wang sketched out the likely course of the US-China rivalry under the new Biden administration; He Wei and Thomas Gatley analyzed key developments in China's economy and markets, and Gavekal CEO Louis Gave presented his views on the forces shaping global markets.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer, Vincent Tsui, Thomas Gatley, Udith Sikand, Cedric Gemehl
Dec 04th 2020
Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, December 2020
The US equity market is seeing a switch from the winners of the pandemic like technology and online retail, to the beaten-up losers such as travel plays. At the same time, hopes for a strong economic recovery in 2021 are juicing up value stocks. Similar dynamics are being seen in other major markets. Our team of analysts discussed what happens next, and what’s in store in 2021.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer
Dec 04th 2020
Video: The Treasury’s Liquidity Programs And Markets
US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has come under fire for failing to extend a number of the Treasury’s liquidity support programs into 2021. But as Will outlines in this short video interview, while the existence of the facilities that are set to expire helped to shore up sentiment back in March and April, they have been little used, and are now largely irrelevant in practical terms.
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Gavekal Research
Simon Pritchard, Tom Holland, Dan Wang, Vincent Tsui
Nov 26th 2020
Webinar: Hong Kong Under The National Security Law
Hong Kong has spent five months living under a tough national security law imposed on it from Beijing. The direct impact has been a sharp curtailment of opposition political activity that has sparked sanctions from the United States. Now, China has plans for more changes to Hong Kong's legal system, with a requirement for judges to be patriots. In yesterday’s webinar, Vincent Tsui, Dan Wang, Tom Holland and Simon Pritchard discussed the...
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Gavekal Research
Yanmei Xie
Nov 25th 2020
Video: What Prospect US Fiscal Support?
Investors in the US are displaying signs of euphoria as they anticipate the end of the pandemic due to the roll-out of vaccines. But is this shortsighted given the lack of agreement over fiscal stimulus? Our US policy analyst Yanmei thinks the market has it about right, as the political stars are aligning for some kind of accommodation on a new spending package.
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Gavekal Research
Cedric Gemehl, Nick Andrews
Nov 20th 2020
Webinar: Europe And The Second Wave
European markets were ebullient earlier this week on news that an effective Covid-19 vaccine may be approved for use early next year. In the meantime, regional lockdowns aimed at curbing the escalating pandemic threatens Europe's economic recovery. This all but guarantees loose monetary and fiscal policy for the foreseeable future. In yesterday's webinar Nick and Cedric discussed how this shakes out for investors.
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews
Nov 19th 2020
Video: EU Summit Tensions
European Union leaders are today sitting down for a high stakes summit. Poland and Hungary are threatening to scupper the EU’s budget and grandly-announced Recovery Fund if they are further penalized for becoming authoritarian and eroding the rule of law. The pandemic continues to demand leaders’ attention and Brexit lurks as the ugly beast in the background.
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber, Andrew Batson, Dan Wang, Wei He, Thomas Gatley
Nov 13th 2020
Webinar: China After The Recovery
Having gone into lockdown first, China was also the first economy to emerge, and has since enjoyed a rapid rebound in industrial production and exports, reflected in financial markets. But now that the economy is back to “normal”, policymakers have returned to a conservative stance which focuses on financial stability.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer
Nov 12th 2020
Video: Politics And Pandemics—The US After The Election
The last week has seen two big developments affecting the US economy and markets: effective confirmation that Joe Biden has won the presidency, and a surge in hopes for the early rollout of a coronavirus vaccine as infection rates continue to accelerate. Will examines how the last week’s news affects the US growth outlook, and outlines what it means for US bonds, equities and the dollar.
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Gavekal Research
Gilliam Collinsworth Hamilton
Nov 05th 2020
Video: China's Grand Plan For The Next Two Decades
While the US has been busy tying itself in knots over the 2020 presidential election, the Chinese government, with no electoral calendar to worry about, has quietly been setting out its grand strategy for the country’s development over the next two decades. In this video, Gilliam cuts through the impenetrable ideological jargon to identify the key themes running through Beijing’s long term policy pronouncements.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky, Arthur Kroeber, Louis Gave, Yanmei Xie, Will Denyer
Nov 05th 2020
Webinar: The 2020 US Election
With the US election outcome likely subject to a period of litigation and some uncertainty, yesterday Gavekal partners and US analysts convened to discuss the possible scenarios lying ahead and what they're likely to mean for asset markets.
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Gavekal Research
Charles Gave, Cedric Gemehl, Louis Gave, Didier Darcet
Nov 05th 2020
Webinar: US Election & Global Investment Roundtable (in French)
Charles Gave, Louis-Vincent Gave, Didier Darcet and Cedric Gemehl delved into the results of the US election, and discussed the latest impact of Covid-19 on the global economy and markets. Additionally, they presented Gavekal’s latest research on portfolio construction.
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Gavekal Research
Vincent Tsui
Oct 30th 2020
Video: Hong Kong's Resilience
Massive inflows of capital into Hong Kong’s financial system ahead of this week’s record-breaking US$34bn IPO for Chinese fintech giant Ant Group represent a major vote of investor confidence in Hong Kong’s future as a financial center, just months after many international commentators were writing the city’s obituary following Beijing’s imposition of a sweeping national security law. Vincent explores the underpinnings of this confidence.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer, Yanmei Xie, Tan Kai Xian
Oct 30th 2020
Webinar: Facing Down US Risks
The world is focused on the US election, with concerns over a disputed result. Our US team of analysts are less worried about process than the substantive impact of big changes in domestic economic policy settings. Will, Yanmei and KX assessed the likely fallout from November 3 and assess the latest US economic data with a focus on threats to the US recovery should the pandemic worsen and near-term fiscal responses remain uncertain.
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Gavekal Research
Matthew Forney, Laila Khawaja
Oct 28th 2020
Webinar: China's Fintech Showdown
China’s financial technology industry has been chaotic for two decades, with Ant Group launching pioneering new products while regulators and competitors play catch-up. With Ant Group ready for its IPO, the push-and-pull between the firm and regulators is grabbing institutional investors’ attention. Matthew Forney and Laila Khawaja of Gavekal Fathom China addressed this tension and also the broader impact of regulation on the country's...
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer
Oct 23rd 2020
Video: Facing Down US Risks
Investors in US financial assets face a panoply of concerns from political upheaval, a worsening pandemic, uncertainty over near-term fiscal stimulus and threats to the highly-rated tech sector. In this video interview, Will addresses such concerns and offers portfolio positioning advice.
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Gavekal Research
Udith Sikand, Vincent Tsui, Tom Miller
Oct 22nd 2020
Webinar: Divergence In Emerging Markets
Emerging markets have had very different pandemic experiences and the effects are showing up in economic data and market performance. Northeast Asian economies offer strong growth opportunities while southeast Asia is muddling through in a way that favors bond investors. The good news in Asia is that struggling economies such as India and Indonesia are pursuing reform initiatives. The picture is less rosy in Latin America, while Turkey offers...
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Gavekal Research
Andrew Batson
Oct 16th 2020
Webinar: Understanding Chinese State Capitalism
The advance of the private sector and the retreat of the state sector has been central to China’s long transformation from an isolated socialist nation to a globally connected economy. Yet the notions of China’s private sector being either in the ascendency, or facing a squeeze in the statist Xi Jinping era are not born out by the facts. Andrew Batson discussed the findings in his recent major piece of research on this topic.
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Gavekal Research
Vincent Tsui
Oct 15th 2020
Video: Gauging Asian Resilience
Since the panicked sell-off of March, Asian emerging markets have been a relative bastion of stability. Northeast Asian equities have done well as effective pandemic control and strong export markets have powered an economic recovery, while Southeast Asia has offered bond investors solid returns as liquidity from aggressive policy easing has mostly flown into safe assets. In this video interview, Vincent discusses whether the equilibrium will be...
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Gavekal Research
Yanmei Xie, Louis Gave, Anatole Kaletsky
Oct 09th 2020
Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, October 2020
Yanmei Xie discussed the US team’s assessment of risks surrounding the US election, Anatole Kaletsky explained the reasons for his return to bullishness and Louis Gave talked about global asset allocation and how to find “anti-fragile” assets.
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Gavekal Research
Nick Andrews
Oct 09th 2020
Video: The Euro's Next Move
The euro’s appreciation against the US dollar has stalled out as resurgent Covid-19 infections threaten new lockdown measures, and a possible upending of the economic recovery. Nick argues that the euro’s decade-long run as a “weak currency” was down to policy settings that kept domestic demand weak. A convincing reversal is not likely until those domestic drivers are again firing.
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Gavekal Research
Cedric Gemehl, Nick Andrews, Anatole Kaletsky
Oct 01st 2020
Webinar: Europe In The Second Wave
Yesterday Cedric Gemehl, Nick Andrews and Anatole Kaletsky joined Tom Holland to discuss what's going on in Europe. Topics ranged from how the economy is fairing in the second wave of the outbreak, what that means for asset prices, and also where Brexit fits into all this.
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Gavekal Research
Yanmei Xie
Sep 30th 2020
Video: Sizing Up US Election Risks
Tuesday’s ill-tempered presidential debate will only fuel claims that the US election could see massive fraudulent voting and therefore end with the result challenged in court—and maybe on the streets. Such rancor threatens the long-run viability of American democratic institutions, but in the short run Yanmei says the system can comfortably handle a contested election result.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer
Sep 25th 2020
Video: Behind The Market's Mood Swings
In recent weeks some of the biggest US equity winners since the start of the Covid-19 crisis have appeared to run out of steam, as the Federal Reserve abstained from stepping up its asset purchases. Meanwhile, Congressional gridlock seems to stand in the way of renewed stimulus for American consumers. Will is not too concerned, and in this interview points out that the Fed still has ample ammunition, and that the strength of the US recovery...
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Gavekal Research
Andrew Batson, Dan Wang
Sep 24th 2020
Webinar: Taking Stock Of US-China Decoupling
In yesterday’s webinar, Andrew Batson presented an overview of where the Chinese economy is going and how the relationship with the US is evolving, and Dan Wang addressed recent US actions in the technological rivalry between the two countries, particularly the latest executive orders on WeChat and TikTok.
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Gavekal Research
Yanmei Xie
Sep 18th 2020
Video: The US Fiscal Seesaw
There are some signs that Democrats and Republicans are inching towards a new spending deal to provide "enhanced" benefits to struggling companies and unemployed Americans. Yanmei argues that such a resolution would certainly buttress demand going into the winter season but a "no deal" outcome would not necessarily spell disaster for a US economy that is learning to live with Covid-19.
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Gavekal Research
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
Sep 18th 2020
Webinar: Embattled India
India has taken a bigger economic hit from the pandemic than any other major economy, exacerbating a slowdown that was already underway. In addition, India is engaged in a high-stakes standff with China over its Himalayan border, which may force an economic decoupling of the two countries.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer, Anatole Kaletsky
Sep 11th 2020
Webinar: From Bearish To (Conditionally) Bullish
Anatole and Will presented their views on the efficacy of US fiscal and monetary policy in response to the Covid crisis, and outlined the prospects for the economy and asset markets.
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Gavekal Research
Tan Kai Xian
Sep 10th 2020
Video: Assessing The Midwest Outbreak
While the pandemic continues to ravage the US, the last month has seen rates of infection decline across most of the country. That situation has recently reversed in some low-population Midwestern states, but on balance the US has learnt to live with Covid, and therefore a resurgence in the fall will not result in the kind of disruption seen in March and April.
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Gavekal Research
Charles Gave, Louis Gave, Cedric Gemehl, Didier Darcet
Sep 09th 2020
Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable (in French), Sept 2020
In a turbulent economic environment, Louis sought to identify assets with “anti-fragile” qualities; Cedric deciphered the message from European markets; Didier Darcet refreshed refresh an old Gavekal framework with “Four Quadrants 2.0” and Charles moderated the discussion.
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Gavekal Research
Charles Gave, Louis Gave, Will Denyer
Sep 04th 2020
Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, September 2020
Charles Gave, Louis Gave and Will Denyer joined Arthur Kroeber at the global investment roundtable to discuss what's going on in the global economy. Charles identified three big trends that will affect the investment environment in the long term, Will gave an in-dept update on the US economy, and Louis examined where to find assets with “anti-fragile” properties.
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Gavekal Research
Vincent Tsui
Sep 02nd 2020
Video: Covid-19's Investment Implications For Asia
Asia has handled the pandemic decently well and its solid macroeconomic fundamentals means it does not face any kind of solvency crisis. The problem for investors is that the growth outlook remains pretty grim, with limited prospects for a swift improvement. As a result, investors should stick with local currency bonds, which look well set in this environment.
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Gavekal Research
Gilliam Collinsworth Hamilton
Aug 27th 2020
Video: A South China Sea October Surprise?
Tensions in the South China Sea between the US and China are ramping up during a presidential campaign where the incumbent has set himself on a collision course with China. You do not have to be a crazed conspiracy theorist to wonder if this theatre could be the scene of an “October Surprise”.
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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer
Aug 20th 2020
Video: The State Of The US Recovery
Pandemic aside, the US faces a looming fiscal cliff and rising political risk as the presidential election campaign starts proper. So why is Will so sanguine about the country’s economic prospects? In this video interview, he explains his position.
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Gavekal Research
Yanmei Xie
Aug 06th 2020
Video: A Joe Biden Presidency?
With the US presidential election less than three months away, polling suggests Joe Biden and the Democrats have a chance at a clean sweep of the White House and Congress. While Biden has been open about wanting to raise taxes and tackle climate change, he would inherit an economy still reeling from the coronavirus shock. With this in mind, Yanmei outlines what the 100 first days of a Biden presidency are likely to look like.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky, Arthur Kroeber, Tan Kai Xian
Jul 31st 2020
Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, July 2020
In our monthly Global Investment Roundtable, US analyst Tan Kai Xian analyzed the latest US data and assessed the risk that the present economic stall-out turns into a double-dip recession. Arthur Kroeber explained why the Trump Administration has amped up its Cold War rhetoric on China. Anatole Kaletsky tied it all together and tried to explain the recent movements in global markets.
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Gavekal Research
Dan Wang
Jul 29th 2020
Video: The Hong Kong Sanctions Regime
As US-China tensions amp up, Hong Kong faces US actions in response to the national security law imposed by the Chinese government. This includes an end to preferential trade treatment and penalties for foreign financial institutions that transact with officials found to be undermining the city’s freedoms. In this video interview, Dan explains how the program will play out and addresses the question of whether the US government will target Hong...