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E.g., 16-01-2022
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, January 2022

    In the US and Europe, the new year has begun with a huge wave of workplace absenteeism due to surging omicron Covid cases. In China, policymakers are adopting a whack-a-mole approach to multiple Covid outbreaks, while other emerging economies are curtailing market opening measures. Our team outline their base case views for growth, inflation and markets in 2022.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Quirinale Question

    The possibility that Italian prime minister Mario Draghi could be installed as the country’s largely ceremonial president when parliament chooses a new head of state next month has raised fears of a new period of political instability. In this video interview, Nick Andrews assesses the implications for Draghi’s ongoing structural reform program, and for Italian asset prices.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Case For US Bank Stocks

    As the Federal Reserve dials back its quantitative easing program, the US economy is back to relying on banks as the main agents of credit creation. And as US yields move higher, Will is convinced that large-cap bank stocks offer one of the best bets in the US market. In this video interview, he explains why.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Struggle For Self-Sufficiency

    US efforts to slow the development of China’s domestic semiconductor industry through export bans on US-origin technology has duly stymied its leading chipmakers. As a result, Beijing is working hard to achieve some form of technological self-sufficiency. In this interview, Gavekal Fathom China’s Tilly Zhang outlines two prongs of the effort.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, December 2021

    Our senior team consider the big strategy questions that should be vexing investors in 2022. This includes an assessment of potential positive surprises that could present opportunities for investors who are positioned ahead of time. Our team also consider prospects for the undersupplied and underinvested global energy market.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Pricing French Political Risk

    With four months to go before France’s 2022 presidential election, the lion’s share of publicity has so far been captured by the populist rightCedric assesses whether a right-wing Euroskeptic could really capture the Elysée palace come April, to what extent polling gains by populist candidates icould destabilize Europe’s financial markets.

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    Gavekal Research

    Beijing Seminar & Webinar — December 2021

    In our recent live-streamed seminar in Beijing, Anatole presented his case for why markets are right not to panic about high headline inflation numbers. Louis cast doubt on claims that this current bout of inflation is transitory. Arthur and members of the Dragonomics team presented on China's economy, policy goals and asset markets.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Europe's Winter Troubles

    As winter sets in, Europe seems beset with uncertainties: around Covid, energy prices and inflation. Anatole Kaletsky, Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews weigh these and other forces that will be at work in 2022 to assess the outlook for Europe’s economy and markets in the new year.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The State Of The US Economy

    With US inflation way above target, the Federal Reserve is considering a faster than initially planned wind down to its asset purchases. In this video interview, Will examines the US’s inflationary dynamic and assesses the impact that a renewed Covid outbreak could have on the growth outlook and markets.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Russia And The European Energy Equation

    The sharp rise this year in European energy prices has been widely attributed to Russia, which has declined to increase near-term supplies of natural gas to Europe in line with the region’s demand growth. Nick examines the incentives guiding Moscow’s decisions and explores the potential impact of Russia’s choices on Western Europe’s inflation and growth outlook.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Contrarian Takes On Two Emerging Markets

    The consensus view seems to be that Brazil is too risky and South Korea is the big money-maker among emerging markets. Not quite so, say Udith and Vincent. In this webinar, Udith outlines why it may be worth it for investors to take on some risk in Brazil and Vincent argues that South Korea’s star may be fading as the export outlook weakens and inflation rises.

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    Gavekal Research

    Shanghai Seminar — November 2021

    In our recent Shanghai seminar, Arthur Kroeber addressed China's policy moves this year, the decarbonization drive and the rivalry with the US; Thomas Gatley outlined the status and prospects for China's economy and markets; and Louis Gave presented his latest macroeconomic views as inflationary pressures around the world continue to mount.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Conflicting Signals In US Consumption

    The US recorded continued strong retail sales growth in October. But more forward-looking surveys are showing a deep deterioration in consumer sentiment as gasoline prices have risen to seven-year highs, acting as an effective tax on households’ discretionary spending power. In this video interview, KX weighs these conflicting forces to assess the outlook for US consumer demand in 2022.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: A Climate Of Change

    As the COP26 climate conference reached its end, our team of analysts convened to discuss what to make of the world’s major economies’ climate pledges. Europe has the most ambitious target, the US has finally outlined its specific goals, and China too has set a date by which to achieve a net-zero emission economy. How rough will the transition be?

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: A Looser Labor Market

    In the US expectations are growing that labor shortages will drive accelerating pay rises, exacerbating inflationary pressures. In the eurozone, as Nick explains, the situation is different. Although anecdotes abound about employers struggling to staff up, these are a temporary wrinkle caused by rapid reopening in narrow sectors.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, November 2021

    At November's Global Investment Roundtable, Gavekal’s senior team convened to discuss the global macro environment as energy prices continue to rise and the US Federal Reserve gets closer to winding down its monetary accommodation.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Europe's Dislocated Recovery

    Europe is in the grips of an energy crisis that is disrupting multiple industries and acting as an effective tax on consumption. In addition to broader supply chain bottlenecks, the worry is that these factors choke off Europe's nascent economic recovery. In this webinar our team of analysts assess these dynamics.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: India's Comeback

    India posted a blazing 20% year-on-year growth figure in the calendar year’s second quarter. The country seems to have ducked a third Covid wave and equity investors remain ebullient. In this video interview, Udith explores a number of gathering problems for the Indian economy but concedes that the good times could easily keep on rolling.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: What To Expect As The Fed Tapers

    The Federal Reserve is planning to wind down its creation of artificial savings just as the US net national savings rate has ticked lower and the Treasury is preparing to rebuild its depleted cash balances. Will and KX set out what these all these shifts—as well as rising inflation, tightening labor markets and deteriorating housing affordability—mean for US stock and bond markets.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Typhoon Season For Hong Kong

    Hong Kong is sticking to its zero-Covid policies, complete with a travel ban on outsiders and Draconian quarantine rules for returning residents, even as Singapore tentatively reopens to international arrivals. In this video interview, Vincent explains what is driving Hong Kong’s uncompromising stance on Covid. He assesses whether it will damage the city’s standing as a regional financial center, and whether doubts over the status of China...

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: China’s Policy Trajectory

    China’s leaders capitalized on the country’s post-Covid boom by pursuing reforms that further Xi Jinping’s political goals. These have resulted in hits to both economic growth and financial markets. In this webinar, Andrew unpicks these developments and explains why he thinks no U-turn in the broad policy approach is likely.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Musical Chairs At The Fed

    After the resignation of two regional Federal Reserve branch presidents over potential conflicts of interest, the knives are out in Washington for Jay Powell. In this video interview, Will assesses what personnel changes at the Fed may mean for the trajectory of US monetary policy and for the Fed’s role as US banking supervisor.

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    Gavekal Research

    London Seminar — September 2021

    In our recent London seminar, Thomas Gatley addressed China's changed business environment and Tom Miller unpicked US-China geopolitical tensions. Charles Gave and Anatole resumed their dialogue about the future of the world economy in their first in-person sparring session since the pandemic started.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Entente Discordiale

    As if a tight labor market, rising inflation and widespread fuel shortages weren’t enough to contend with, the United Kingdom is also seeing a sharp deterioration in its relations with the European Union, and France especially. Nick examines what worsening cross-Channel relations could mean for the economies of the UK and EU.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, October 2021

    In Thursday's Global Investment Roundtable, Louis argued that shortages of everything from microchips to natural gas are structural in nature and augur a radical change in the investing environment. Anatole, in contrast, said that current supply disruptions are likely transitory and the inflation panic should pass relatively soon.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Having It Both Ways In Emerging Markets

    The question for emerging market policymakers is: do they follow the Federal Reserve and tighten monetary policy in anticipation of "taper tantrum II"? Or do they, instead, try and stimulate their weakened economies by keeping money cheap and hope this does not prompt a disorderly exit of capital?

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Divergence In Central Banking

    A material difference has opened up in both the actions and signaling of global central banks, as they exit from pandemic-era monetary policy settings. On the hawkish side is the likes of the Federal Reserve and on the dovish side the European Central Bank and a raft of Asian policymakers. The question is who could be on the verge of making a policy mistake.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: European Course Correction, Or Steady On Ahead?

    Germans will soon go to the polls, while the European Central Bank has denied media reports that it is considering raising interest rates early. In other words, there is no shortage of news and events that may make markets jittery. In this webinar our Europe team attempt to make sense of it all and plot Europe’s likely fiscal and monetary course.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Asia’s Diverging Covid Strategies

    Asian economies are often lumped into the collective bucket of following “zero-Covid” elimination strategies. That has certainly been the case in most of the region’s big economies. However, there is increasingly an impetus by the better-vaccinated countries to fully reopen. Vincent surveys the landscape and draws some conclusions regarding preferred currency plays.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Webinar: The Evergrande Crisis

    Markets have reacted violently to China Evergrande Group starting to default on US$300bn of obligations. The worry is that a disorderly failure causes a systemic crisis that dents Chinese growth and upends other emerging markets. Our team of analysts think such a chaotic denouement is unlikely and a managed solution remains the most likely outcome. In this webinar, they explain their thinking.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Questions Arise As US Growth Slows

    As renewed Covid outbreaks curtail activity and the labor market starts to normalize, the US economy is no longer generating big upside growth surprises. Will the Federal Reserve defer its retreat from super-easy monetary policy, and what will come of the Biden administration's fiscal strategy?

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Cryptos, NFTs And CyberPunks

    As investors have flipped between euphoria and dejection over the future of crypto-currencies and related digital assets, prices have had a crazy ride. In this video Will outlines a framework for thinking about valuations. Even if digital art sold as NFTs sticks around, the basic economics of their use case means they probably won't be great stores of value.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Economics Of Germany's Election

    Ahead of Germany’s election in a couple of weeks, the center-left Social Democratic Party has recently climbed up the polls to eclipse the previously dominant Christian Democratic Union. If the polling is right, the SPD is likely to form a coalition government with Germany’s smaller parties. Nick breaks out the tea leaves to see what a political shift is likely to mean.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Webinar: Understanding China's Regulatory Crackdown

    Even by China’s high standards, 2021 has seen an extraordinary amount of government intervention in the economy, as top leader Xi Jinping moves aggressively to implement his vision of national greatness. In this webinar our China team assess the impact on the economy and markets, and discuss what could cause this crackdown to pause or reverse.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Implications Of Afghanistan

    In the same week that the US military completed its chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, President Joe Biden outlined a more contained doctrine for US foreign policy. In this video interview, Yanmei argues against a declinist view of the Kabul dash for the exit, contending that the longer-term impact may be a much-needed reset of the American imperial project.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: India Backs Off Foreigner Tax

    India has been a tough place for multinationals to make big capital investments. Just this week the country’s highest court cleared the way for anti-trust action against Amazon and Walmart’s online retail platforms. However, a counter-trend move has been the government backing away from a retrospective tax that has been deployed against foreign investors.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, August 2021

    The US growth outlook may be softening as the reopening boom weakens but equity markets seem relaxed as this outcome could delay the day when monetary stimulus is withdrawn. In our sign-off webinar for August, Gavekal partners asked if markets are right in their benign assessment, or whether a nasty surprise could emerge over the usually quiet summer months.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: A Healing US Labor Market

    Since the depths of the pandemic, the US labor market has recovered remarkably quickly. A key question for investors is how long strong job creation can be sustained before upward wage pressure returns. Ahead of Fridays’ payrolls report, Kai Xian outlines the key drivers of the US labor market.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Europe Caught Between Stools

    The US has taken an approach to the pandemic that involves reopening and “living with Covid”, whereas most East Asian economies are heading down the "zero-Covid" path. Europe seems to be caught between these two stools. Which way Europe turns could have a big impact on global growth, the value of the euro and key asset values.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Semiconductor Crunch And Asian Exports

    Apple's Tim Cook warned investors that it would face microchip shortages in the second half of the year. Yet last week, Taiwan Manufacturing Semiconductor said that it saw an abatement of the great chip shortage. In this video interview, Vincent seeks to reconcile these two statements, and explain what it all means for Asian exports.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: The State Of Global Growth

    The reflation trade has ebbed in recent weeks as investors have gotten more comfortable with the trajectory of US monetary policy and concerns have risen over the Delta variant of Covid disrupting economic opening. At the same time, China continues to crack down on its high-growth internet sector. Our team assessed the market implications of these trends.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Debt Ceiling Is Back

    After a two-year suspension, the US debt ceiling will soon be reimposed at current levels. Official estimates suggest that the Treasury can delay defaulting on its debt for three to four months. That is shorter than the five months the Treasury was able to delay during a similar standoff over the debt ceiling in 2019. Ultimately, Congress should act and default will be avoided.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: What's Behind China's Internet Crackdown?

    China's authorities have aggressively tightened regulation of the formerly free-wheeling internet sector. In this webinar, Gavekal RedTech principal Michael Clendenin joined Gavekal Dragonomics's Ernan Cui and Thomas Gatley to analyze the government's motives in the ever-widening crackdown, forecast the next regulatory moves and explain how investors can navigate the risks.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The IMF Weighs In

    Large emerging markets have managed through the pandemic decently well, yet the debilitating economic effects of Covid mean stresses are appearing among lower quality national borrowers. This is one reason that the International Monetary Fund is set to expand distribution of its "Special Drawing Rights" reserve-type asset by US$650bn.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: China's Conflicting Pressures In The Second Half

    China is entering the second half of 2021 with its strong post-Covid economic momentum still intact, despite policymakers staying consistently hawkish on debt and property. In this webinar Wei He, Rosealea Yao and Thomas Gatley outlined how these conflicting pressures will play out over the rest of the year, and discussed the potential for an easing of the policy stance.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: How Brexit Britain Shapes Up

    Six months after the UK properly left the European Union, the shape of the emerging post-Brexit economy is becoming a little clearer. Despite distorting effects from the pandemic, the impact on trade from being outside the EU’s single market can be seen, arguments about the UK’s position as a manufacturing hub can be tested and the future shape of Britain’s once super-charged financial services sector is coming into focus. Nick Andrews reviews...

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Can Things Really Keep Getting Better?

    The US economy continues to break growth records as it reopens and other big regions may be set to go the same way, while Asia continues to prosper from a strong export outlook. The question is not whether the world economy slumps back into a funk, but whether growth expectations are now set too bullish.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Can Italy Recover?

    In response to the Covid economic shock, the European Union has vowed to adopt more expansive fiscal responses and limited mutualization of national debts. The country where this approach will fall, or rise is Italy. In this interview, Nick offers a view on whether it will be enough for Italy to mount a comeback.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Can Europe Normalize?

    In yesterday's webinar, Cedric and Nick assessed the risks and opportunities associated with Europe's economic reopening, the effectiveness of the new Recovery Fund backed by mutualized debt, and the signs heading into a new political season in which Euroskeptic parties stand to do well.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The US Housing Sector Rolls Over

    The US housing market has been booming for the past year, with prices setting a record-high in data released this week. However, a decline in affordability, coupled with the potential for higher mortgage rates, is weighing on demand and has started to force a shift from a buyer-led market to a renter-led market.

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