Gavekal Research

Louis Gave, Thomas Gatley, Udith Sikand

Apr 09th 2019

Louis Gave examined the reasons for equity markets' good performance amid a global trade slowdown; Thomas Gatley assessed the state of the Chinese economy and whether the current Chinese equity bull market still has legs; Udith Sikand reckoned it is time to be positive on emerging markets, especially EM Asia.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Rosealea Yao

Apr 05th 2019

Home sales in China fell by 3.6% in the first two months of 2019. This, however, was better than expected considering that this upcycle is now four years old. Lower mortgage rates and supportive policies by local governments should prop up demand, and Rosealea expects overall housing sales to decline a modest 2% for the year.

Gavekal Research

Nick Andrews

Mar 27th 2019

Europe has an ambivalent relationship with China that is increasingly under scrutiny. The European Commission recently labelled China a “systemic rival” and France and Germany want to create corporate champions to compete against Chinese state owned enterprises. Europe, however, is not singing from the same hymn sheet.

Gavekal Research

Will Denyer

Mar 15th 2019

The Federal Reserve is debating a fundamental shift in its inflation targeting. Right now it's targeting 2% inflation no matter what it has been in the past, a so-called "bygones" policy. In this video interview Will discusses the consequences of switching to price-level targeting, where the aim is to keep average inflation over time at 2%.

Gavekal Research

Will Denyer

Mar 06th 2019

The US Federal Reserve has said it is likely to end its process of balance sheet “normalization” sooner than previously planned. This sounds like an obscure monetary technicality, but it has important implications for investors. In this video interview Will explains why.

Gavekal Research

Dan Wang

Feb 15th 2019

More constructive rhetoric suggests the US and China may be about to strike a truce on tariffs and market access. However, that does not mean they are about to bury the hatchet. Powerful groups in Washington want to contain China’s rise as a technological power, and the US has many tools at its disposal even if it drops tariffs.

Gavekal Research

Will Denyer

Feb 04th 2019

The US labor market is sending apparently contradictory signals. On one hand the unemployment rate ticked higher in January. On the other, job creation was much stronger than expected. Will looks behind the latest data points to examine the labor market’s underlying trends, and concludes they spell relatively bullish news for the US economy and risk assets over the coming months.

Gavekal Research

Will Denyer

Jan 17th 2019

As the US government shutdown threatens to enter its fifth week, Will looks back at previous shutdowns to weigh the likely impact on America’s economy and financial markets, against the backdrop of an aging economic cycle, flattening yield curve and tighter financial conditions.

Gavekal Research

Louis Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, Charles Gave

Dec 13th 2018

In the final Gavekal Research Conference Call of the year, Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky and Charles Gave shared their perspectives on a year which has been challenging for all asset classes, and offered their thoughts on what could be in store for investors in 2019.

Gavekal Research

Anatole Kaletsky, Charles Gave

Nov 09th 2018

At Gavekal’s seminar in London last month Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky presented on whether the world is breaking up into three different monetary zones, and whether this is a correction to, or an end to, the long-running global bull market. Micahel Clendenin of Gavekal RedTech explained how they conduct research on the Chinese technology and internet sector.

Gavekal Research

Louis Gave, Udith Sikand, Chen Long

Oct 30th 2018

At Gavekal’s seminar in Beijing last week, Louis-Vincent Gave, Udith Sikand and Chen Long presented their latest views on the turn in global markets, the prospects for emerging markets in the quarters ahead, and on China's policy priorities as it faces down the US in a prolonged rivalry.

Gavekal Research

Louis Gave, Anatole Kaletsky

Oct 11th 2018

In this month’s Research Conference Call Louis-Vincent Gave examined the present bad tidings from markets and asked whether the global bull market faces a denouement. Anatole Kaletsky argued that this sell-off will likely prove to be a temporary setback for emerging markets and that the global bull market may have further to run. However, he warned that the outcome will depend heavily on where the oil price goes from here.

Gavekal Research

Louis Gave

Sep 03rd 2018

With the exception of US equities, about the only other way most investors could have achieved a positive return this year was to have held US dollar cash. That has made for a very strange investment environment that few people saw coming. In this video interview, Louis reviews the experience of the last eight months and outlines potential scenarios for the remainder of 2018.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Dan Wang

Jul 17th 2018

China has an ambitious industrial upgrading plan, called Made in China 2025, which targets Chinese leadership in about 30 technological segments. In this video interview Dan explains how the government aims to achieve this, how this plan differs from previous Chinese policy goals, and whether it is likely to succeed.

Gavekal Research

Anatole Kaletsky, Louis Gave, Charles Gave

Jun 11th 2018

During Friday’s monthly call, Louis Gave addressed the direction of the US dollar and the impact of expanding US fiscal deficits. Anatole Kaletsky focused on the rise of populist politics, which remains his major concern. Charles Gave considered the impact of resurgent nationalism on the investment environment. There was also significant discussion of the oil price with Anatole and Louis taking differing positions.

Gavekal Research

Udith Sikand

May 31st 2018

In elections earlier this month, Mahathir Mohamad stunnned Malaysia, defeating the party he led for 20 years to become the country’s new prime minister. In this short video interview, Udith examines Mahathir’s policy platform, and asks whether the resurgent 92-year-old can really rejuvenate Malaysia’s economy.

Gavekal Research

Arthur Kroeber

Apr 18th 2018

During yesterday’s monthly call, Arthur Kroeber addressed rising geoeconomic and geopolitical tensions between the world’s two biggest economies. He argued that US moves against China ran far deeper than trade tariffs as actors across the political spectrum in Washington were intent on changing China’s basic economic model, something that Beijing will likely fiercely resist. Much of his focus was on the tech sector, which is front-and-center of...

Gavekal Dragonomics

Tom Miller

Apr 05th 2018

In this lively presentation from our recent London seminar, Tom Miller outlines the dramatic political changes that have been taking place in China. He explains what Xi Jinping’s new status means for economic policy and governance, and how the links between the Communist Party and the state are being strengthened.

Gavekal Research

Charles Gave, Tom Miller, Cedric Gemehl, Anatole Kaletsky

Mar 23rd 2018

In our seminar in London this week Charles pondered the investment consequences of the US moving back into an inflationary period. Tom discussed Chinese politics in light of Xi Jinping’s elevation. Cedric presented on how investors can best benefit from the diversity of the European economy. Anatole explained why the long-running global bull market is likely to continue, but also where the risks are buried.

Gavekal Research

Mar 12th 2018

In last week’s Research Conference Call Cedric Gemehl and Nick Andrews presented a thematic approach for playing the European growth story. Cedric explained why the major stock indexes fail to capture the geographical and sectoral potential in Europe, and Nick proposed specific investment themes that should allow investors to benefit from Europe’s continued expansion.

Gavekal Research

Feb 19th 2018

In last week’s Research Conference Call Andrew Batson outlined the risks—both downside and upside—to the Chinese economy in 2018. Yanmei Xie focused on the risk of overzealous implementation of policy. This is especially the case for environmental regulations, which gave Beijing an uncharacteristically smog-free winter, but at the cost of a natural gas shortage.

Gavekal Research

Will Denyer

Feb 02nd 2018

Will outlines his view that real growth in the US will remain stable this year and that inflation will pick up, and discusses what this means for asset prices and portfolio construction.

Gavekal Research

Anatole Kaletsky, Louis Gave, Arthur Kroeber

Jan 17th 2018

In Gavekal’s monthly research call yesterday, Louis Gave reviewed evidence that the investment environment is experiencing a once-in-a-generation shift from a deflationary environment to one that is broadly inflationary. Anatole Kaletsky argued that this metamorphosis will likely be an orderly affair. Arthur Kroeber updated his view on China’s likely impact on global commodity markets.

Gavekal Research

Udith Sikand

Nov 29th 2017

India reports its third quarter GDP tomorrow and Udith offers an assessment of the economy. He expect the official numbers to show a pick-up in growth due to firms restocking after the rollout of the new Goods & Services Tax and thinks this trajectory will continue through to next year. He advise investors to stick with richly-valued equities, treat bonds cautiously and not worry too much about a currency correction.