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E.g., 26-08-2019
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Anatomy Of The August Panic

    As more and more government bonds around the world slide into negative yield, investors can draw one of two conclusions: either the world faces an economic meltdown, or there is a buying panic in safe assets. But although there is indeed a synchronous global slowdown in growth, Louis favors the latter explanation.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Enter Boris

    In the last week or so, the pound has fallen sharply to a two-and-a-half-year low against the US dollar. That’s all down to the new British government, headed by Boris Johnson, and his "do or die" Brexit campaign. But when a deal is finally struck, Britain’s strong economic fundamentals mean it is well placed for a boost in growth, along with the pound.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Korea's Coping Strategy

    No other G20 economy is as exposed to global trade tensions as Korea. With its heavy dependence on semiconductor manufacturing, Korea has proved vulnerable both to the US-China economic cold war, and to long-running disputes between Seoul and Tokyo. As a result, exports have cratered and economists have slashed their Korean growth forecasts.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Modi's Second Term Challenges

    Indian prime minister Narendra Modi faces some daunting economic challenges in his second term. As Udith explains in this interview, the biggest is to create new jobs India needs. In the coming decades, India must generate some 10mn new jobs every year simply to provide employment for the cohort of young Indians set to enter the workforce.

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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call July 2019

    In yesterday’s Gavekal Research conference call, Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky and Arthur Kroeber conducted a mid-year review of the investment environment and outlined their expectations for the rest of the year onward.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: What Is Libra, And Will It Work?

    Facebook will have an uphill battle trying to convince consumers to adopt its announced digital currency, libra. As it will be backed by a basket of assets denominated in different currencies, the prices of goods and services will be more volatile in libra than in existing local currencies, even in emerging markets. This volatility will deter consumers from making the switch.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Video: What Drives Chinese Equities

    Chinese equity markets are up around 26% for the year. Yet there has been no recovery in earnings growth, and the trade war and shaky domestic economic momentum continue to loom. The reason for the market optimism is expectations of supportive government policies, whether or not those expectations are valid.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: China's Three Vulnerabilities

    Even if Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping leave the G-20 meeting in Osaka next week with a trade deal in hand, the broader rivalry will continue. In this extensive video interview Louis identifies three ways in which China is vulnerable to US pressure and explains how this may impact investors.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Bull Markets Don't Die Of Old Age

    The US economic expansion is entering its 11th year, which makes some wonder whether the end of the business cycle is nigh. Anatole thinks that’s asking the wrong question, because bull markets don’t die of old age. They are, however, more susceptible to diseases of old age. He identifies three events that would cause an economy to keel over. Also on the docket is the seemingly contradictory signals sent by bullish US equity markets and bearish...

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Italy And Europe's Banking Problem

    The eurozone's main banking index is back at a key threshold that over recent decades has seen large-scale intervention by global central banks. For Charles, the root of the problem lies in the deteriorating Italian economy. In this video interview, he explains this dependence and argues that this time there may be no explicit support coming for the banking sector.

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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — The US-China Trade And Technology Mess

    In yesterday's special Gavekal Research Conference call Gavekal's Arthur Kroeber and Dan Wang, along with Fathom China's Matt Forney, considered what the breakdown of the US-China trade talks means for the trajectory of the trade war, and what the blacklisting of Huawei means for the tech cold war.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: European Election Fallout

    The European Parliament elections saw established parties pummeled, but the political center broadly hold out against the forces of nationalist-populism. In this video interview, Cedric considers what that means for investors and how systemic European risk should now be understood.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Iran And The Oil Price

    Angry rhetoric between the US and Iran reached blood-curdling intensity after the US announced in late April that it wouldn't grant waivers for sanctions on Iran's oil exports. While this caused a short term spike in the oil price, it has since fallen about -8% from its high. Are oil traders too complacent about the risks, or does the market have it right?

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    Gavekal Research

    Trade War: Back From The Dead

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Video: How Much Downside For The Renminbi?

    Since the US slapped fresh tariffs on Chinese exports a week ago, the renminbi has fallen, but by less than when the first round of tariffs were imposed last year. In this video interview, Chen Long discusses why that is, and how far China’s currency is likely to fall if things get worse.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Is The Worst Over For The Eurozone?

    Eurozone economic growth was modest in the first quarter of 2019, but it was still stronger than most economists had expected, with Germany avoiding a recession and Italy returning to growth. Meanwhile eurozone equity markets are up a respectable 13% over the year to date. Does this mean Europe is emerging from its economic soft patch?

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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call May 2019

    Investor concern this week is centered on the US-China trade negotiations, but Charles Gave and Louis Gave wonder if investors aren’t missing another risk, namely, that the world might be shifting from a deflationary to an inflationary environment. In our monthly Conference Call yesterday, they outlined arguments for why this may be the case, and what it would mean for portfolio construction.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: India’s Acceleration Phenomenon Explained

    Multinationals and investors are looking to India to deliver the next great surge in sales of consumer goods and services. But demand will not expand in a linear fashion as GDP increases. The acceleration phenomenon dictates that sales of different products and services will grow in leaps and bounds as cohorts of new consumers surpass key income thresholds.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Video: Is The Worst Behind Us?

    At our seminar in Shanghai, Chen Long presented the outlook for China’s economy and markets. Crucially, the credit cycle appears to have bottomed out, and credit growth should accelerate towards the end of the year. He expects the overall economy to follow suit. He also covered the outlook for capital markets, equities and the renminbi.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: India's Hard-To-Call Election

    India’s cacophonous exercise in democracy is well underway and polling suggests there is only a 50% chance of a Narendra Modi-led BJP holding onto power. Tom dives into the details of why the “bear-hugging” reformer has electoral problems this time around. Tom also considers the likely outcome of the election for Indian asset markets.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Where Now For EU-China Relations?

    The annual EU-China summit concluded this week with usual diplomatic platitudes about deepening partnerships and strengthening cooperation. But the meeting took place against a backdrop of heightened tensions, after the EU declared China a “systemic rival” and with many European politicians highly critical of China’s economic nationalism.

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    Gavekal Research

    Hong Kong Seminar — April 2019

    Louis Gave examined the reasons for equity markets' good performance amid a global trade slowdown; Thomas Gatley assessed the state of the Chinese economy and whether the current Chinese equity bull market still has legs; Udith Sikand reckoned it is time to be positive on emerging markets, especially EM Asia.

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    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call April 2019

    In yesterday’s Gavekal Research Conference Call, Will Denyer and Udith Sikand addressed the changing US dollar liquidity environment, and its impact on markets.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Video: Chinese Property Is Slowing, Not Collapsing

    Home sales in China fell by 3.6% in the first two months of 2019. This, however, was better than expected considering that this upcycle is now four years old. Lower mortgage rates and supportive policies by local governments should prop up demand, and Rosealea expects overall housing sales to decline a modest 2% for the year.

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    Gavekal Research

    London Seminar — March 2019

    Cedric Gemehl examined the possibility of a European rebound; Charles Gave argued the world is splitting into three distinct monetary zones; Tom Miller presented on the state of the US-China trade talks and the health of the Chinese economy; Anatole Kaletsky examined the risks to the bull market, and arrived at a bullish conclusion.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Europe's Response To China

    Europe has an ambivalent relationship with China that is increasingly under scrutiny. The European Commission recently labelled China a “systemic rival” and France and Germany want to create corporate champions to compete against Chinese state owned enterprises. Europe, however, is not singing from the same hymn sheet.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Intervention To Support The HKD Signals Strength, Not Weakness

    In the last two weeks, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has been forced to sell US dollars in the foreign exchange market to maintain the Hong Kong Dollar's peg to the US dollar. Yet far from signaling a crisis, the interventions are a symptom of confidence in Hong Kong’s financial system, which is swimming with liquidity.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Fed's Potential Paradigm Shift

    The Federal Reserve is debating a fundamental shift in its inflation targeting. Right now it's targeting 2% inflation no matter what it has been in the past, a so-called "bygones" policy. In this video interview Will discusses the consequences of switching to price-level targeting, where the aim is to keep average inflation over time at 2%.

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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call March 2019

    In this research conference call, Andrew Batson and Chen Long discussed the improving outlook for the Chinese economy in 2019 and the implications for financial markets. Confirmation that the government is both willing and able to support growth has ignited an equity rally, while expectations of further easing measures still support bonds.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Shifting Sands At The Fed

    The US Federal Reserve has said it is likely to end its process of balance sheet “normalization” sooner than previously planned. This sounds like an obscure monetary technicality, but it has important implications for investors. In this video interview Will explains why.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: What Kind Of US-China Deal?

    In recent weeks, the US dollar has rallied, emerging markets have been strong and gold seems to be breaking out to the upside. That is an unusual combination, and in this video Louis outlines three possible explanations for the moves. Most provocatively, as the US-China trade talks get critical, he wonders if China is gearing up to accept a one-off revaluation of the renminbi.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Containing China's Tech Ambitions

    More constructive rhetoric suggests the US and China may be about to strike a truce on tariffs and market access. However, that does not mean they are about to bury the hatchet. Powerful groups in Washington want to contain China’s rise as a technological power, and the US has many tools at its disposal even if it drops tariffs.

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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call February 2019

    In the call yesterday, Charles Gave and Cedric Gemehl presented their views on the economic and political situation in Europe. Cedric outlined key risks facing Europe’s economy. If the worst is avoided, he thinks Europe could get a soft landing. Charles took a different view, arguing that the eurozone was now an irretrievably diverging system.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Conflicting Signals From The US Labor Market

    The US labor market is sending apparently contradictory signals. On one hand the unemployment rate ticked higher in January. On the other, job creation was much stronger than expected. Will looks behind the latest data points to examine the labor market’s underlying trends, and concludes they spell relatively bullish news for the US economy and risk assets over the coming months.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Skirting Recession In Europe?

    This week the IMF has cut its GDP forecasts for European economies exposed to a synchronous global growth slowdown. Nick gauges the probability that core eurozone economies will fall into recession, examines the scope for stimulative policy responses and explores what the slowdown means for Europe’s financial markets.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Beyond The Government Shutdown

    As the US government shutdown threatens to enter its fifth week, Will looks back at previous shutdowns to weigh the likely impact on America’s economy and financial markets, against the backdrop of an aging economic cycle, flattening yield curve and tighter financial conditions.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Video: China In 2019

    Washington and Beijing will likely find some kind of accommodation on trade and China’s economy will suffer a tough first quarter that sees the authorities adopt a range of counter-cyclical measures. In this video interview, Arthur outlines our key China views for 2019 and offers investment recommendations for the renminbi, bonds and the Chinese equity market.

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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call December 2018

    In the final Gavekal Research Conference Call of the year, Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky and Charles Gave shared their perspectives on a year which has been challenging for all asset classes, and offered their thoughts on what could be in store for investors in 2019.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Battle For Chinese Tech

    China imports more semiconductors than it does crude oil, highlighting its dependence on foreign technology and know-how. The US recognizes this weakness and is intent on squeezing China’s tech sector before it is able to produce the most advanced chips at home and in scale. For this reason, tech sits at the heart of the US-China tensions.

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    Gavekal Research

    London Seminar — October 2018

    At Gavekal’s seminar in London last month Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky presented on whether the world is breaking up into three different monetary zones, and whether this is a correction to, or an end to, the long-running global bull market. Micahel Clendenin of Gavekal RedTech explained how they conduct research on the Chinese technology and internet sector.

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    Gavekal Research

    Hong Kong Seminar — November 2018

    At Gavekal’s seminar in Hong Kong this week, Yanmei Xie, Arthur Kroeber and Will Denyer presented their latest views on China's economy, trade war, and how to approach asset allocation in the US.

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    Gavekal Research

    Beijing Seminar — October 2018

    At Gavekal’s seminar in Beijing last week, Louis-Vincent Gave, Udith Sikand and Chen Long presented their latest views on the turn in global markets, the prospects for emerging markets in the quarters ahead, and on China's policy priorities as it faces down the US in a prolonged rivalry.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Why China Is Unlikely To Fold

    To many outside observers, China’s economy looks like a house of cards that is vulnerable to collapse should the US push a little harder in its trade actions. Louis is not convinced that this market-focused analysis of China’s situation properly reflects its vulnerability. He thinks the leadership is dug in for a long struggle against Washington.

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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call October 2018

    In this month’s Research Conference Call Louis-Vincent Gave examined the present bad tidings from markets and asked whether the global bull market faces a denouement. Anatole Kaletsky argued that this sell-off will likely prove to be a temporary setback for emerging markets and that the global bull market may have further to run. However, he warned that the outcome will depend heavily on where the oil price goes from here.

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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call September 2018

    In this month’s research call, Will Denyer explains why he is still recommending a 75% equity exposure in a dedicated US portfolio. His call is based on an asset allocation method with three key components, namely, Wicksellian spreads, relative valuation tools, and a duration tool which shows how to divide a fixed income portfolio between bonds and cash.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: An Unexpected Investment Environment

    With the exception of US equities, about the only other way most investors could have achieved a positive return this year was to have held US dollar cash. That has made for a very strange investment environment that few people saw coming. In this video interview, Louis reviews the experience of the last eight months and outlines potential scenarios for the remainder of 2018.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Understanding India’s Bad Loan Problem

    India has won kudos for adopting a modern bankruptcy law that makes it easier for big lenders to clean house on a bad debt problem that has festered since the early 2000s. In this video interview Udith discusses how the new bankruptcy law has worked in practice, and whether it will be enough to solve Indian banks' bad debt problem.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Video: China's Technology Strategy

    China has an ambitious industrial upgrading plan, called Made in China 2025, which targets Chinese leadership in about 30 technological segments. In this video interview Dan explains how the government aims to achieve this, how this plan differs from previous Chinese policy goals, and whether it is likely to succeed.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call July 2018

    In this call Arthur Kroeber outlined his view on why President Donald Trump’s trade war is not a bluff, and is likely to escalate ahead of the US midterm elections in November; Andrew Batson explained the macro-level effects caused by all this uncertainty; and Chen Long discussed the market impacts in China and the country’s likely response.

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    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call June 2018

    During Friday’s monthly call, Louis Gave addressed the direction of the US dollar and the impact of expanding US fiscal deficits. Anatole Kaletsky focused on the rise of populist politics, which remains his major concern. Charles Gave considered the impact of resurgent nationalism on the investment environment. There was also significant discussion of the oil price with Anatole and Louis taking differing positions.

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