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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: China’s Policy Trajectory

    China’s leaders capitalized on the country’s post-Covid boom by pursuing reforms that further Xi Jinping’s political goals. These have resulted in hits to both economic growth and financial markets. In this webinar, Andrew unpicks these developments and explains why he thinks no U-turn in the broad policy approach is likely.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Building The Bubble-O-Meter

    Charles is somewhat tired of reading general descriptions of US equities being in a bubble, with little serious empirical backing to support the assertion. In this piece, he sets out to build an objective tool to answer the bubble, or not, question. Spoiler alert: he thinks investors would do well to re-assess their hedges.

    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Long Winter For Small Business

    China’s small businesses are having a rough 2021: business conditions have stagnated or deteriorated since the recovery in late 2020. There’s been much debate on the causes of their struggles, but the biggest culprits are the ripple effects from the government’s zero-tolerance Covid policy and its tightening of credit and real-estate policies.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Persistent Inflation Takes Over

    Some may hope that supply bottlenecks quickly ease and the price-hike scare of 2021 soon fades, but that is not the story of the latest US inflation reading. In short, US inflation is now persistent and the Federal Reserve will soon have to address this reality head-on.

    10
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    Gavekal Research

    Four Quadrants For Emerging Markets

    Last week, Charles Gave updated his Four Quadrants view. Udith takes it a step further, combining the quadrants with another two-by-two framework by Michael Power of Ninety One to gleam insight into what the changing macroeconomic environment means for emerging markets, and who will be the winners and losers.

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Musical Chairs At The Fed

    After the resignation of two regional Federal Reserve branch presidents over potential conflicts of interest, the knives are out in Washington for Jay Powell. In this video interview, Will assesses what personnel changes at the Fed may mean for the trajectory of US monetary policy and for the Fed’s role as US banking supervisor.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Sun King

    As the US and Europe pursue more serious green agendas, they are wondering if they can wrest back production of solar power from China. The answer: probably not. China is not just the low-cost producer, but also the technological leader. In this piece, Dan explains why the global deployment of solar energy will depend heavily on China.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Energy And The Euro’s Exchange Rate

    It will come as news to no one that energy prices and exchange rates are intimately connected. Historically, over the last 20 years, the euro has tended to be positively correlated with the price of oil, while the broad US dollar exchange rate has tended to be inversely correlated. So, over the first half of 2008 as the price of oil surged to a record high, the euro hit its all-time high against the US dollar. And in 2014 as the oil price...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    What's Next For Internet Platforms?

    With the results in for China’s antitrust investigation of food-delivery giant Meituan, Ernan writes that the direction of China’s antitrust policy is now becoming increasingly evident, with clear guidance from regulators reducing uncertainty. However, platform profits should continue dwindling as their business models are chipped at by regulators.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Labor And The Age Of Shortages

    The leader of the British Labour Party, Keir Starmer, missed a political trick at his party conference in late September when he failed to quote Labour’s late deputy leader, Aneurin Bevan, who told the party’s 1945 conference, “This island is made mainly of coal and surrounded by fish. Only an organizing genius could produce a shortage of coal and fish at the same time.”

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    London Seminar — September 2021

    In our recent London seminar, Thomas Gatley addressed China's changed business environment and Tom Miller unpicked US-China geopolitical tensions. Charles Gave and Anatole resumed their dialogue about the future of the world economy in their first in-person sparring session since the pandemic started.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Entente Discordiale

    As if a tight labor market, rising inflation and widespread fuel shortages weren’t enough to contend with, the United Kingdom is also seeing a sharp deterioration in its relations with the European Union, and France especially. Nick examines what worsening cross-Channel relations could mean for the economies of the UK and EU.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    A Temporary Respite

    Going into 4Q21, a worry for Will had been that asset prices faced the prospect of two tightening moves to US liquidity. Yet, with Congress now punting a debt-ceiling reckoning to December, this could, in turn, delay the Fed’s taper announcement to December, or even January. Thus, yesterday’s deal on Capitol Hill could allow temporary relief on the liquidity front.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, October 2021

    In Thursday's Global Investment Roundtable, Louis argued that shortages of everything from microchips to natural gas are structural in nature and augur a radical change in the investing environment. Anatole, in contrast, said that current supply disruptions are likely transitory and the inflation panic should pass relatively soon.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    What, Me Worry?

    There is a growing drumbeat of commentary arguing that today’s shortages of everything from microchips to natural gas must end in an inflationary blowout and a return to the lascivious 1970s. Anatole thinks that today’s shortages are likely to correct relatively quickly, and for investors the coming period is more likely to resemble the 1950s.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Housing & Construction Review 2021

    China’s post-Covid property boom has unwound more rapidly than expected this year as the government’s tough policies drive developers into distress. In her annual chartbook, Rosealea explains the outlook for the rest of 2021 and 2022. Further declines in housing sales and construction will come, but policy adjustments can limit their magnitude.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    A Shifting Economic State

    Regular readers may be familiar Charles's my longest-serving analytical tool, the Four Quadrants framework. It aims to represent the four economic states that at different times can exist in a market economy. Through this prism, he examines current market conditions to figure out where in the quadrants we are, and where we're headed.

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    The Price Of Policy

    Wherever you look, energy prices are shooting up, and shortages abound. The global economy, it seems, is in the grip of a full-blown energy crisis. Drill down, and it appears this is not one crisis, but many. The effects—worsening shortages and surging prices—are much the same in differentregions. But the immediate causes of the crunch seem to differ widely.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Fixing Italy

    The results of this weekend's municipal elections in Italy look to have buttressed Mario Draghi’s national unity government, which is half way through an ambitious overhaul of core institutions that have failed the country for decades. With 70% of Italians favoring Draghi’s initiative, and no general election due until mid-2023, the betting is that he gets to finish the job.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    A Crabwise ‘Recoupling’

    The Biden administration continues its crabwise efforts to craft a China strategy balancing national security and economic interests. The challenge is that Biden wants to maintain the basic stance established by Donald Trump—“strategic competition”—while satisfying a wider range of interest groups and setting more realistic policy targets.

    5
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