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E.g., 26-01-2022
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    Gavekal Research

    How Many Bullets In Draghi's .44 Magnum?

    Mario Draghi’s combative remarks at the global investment conference in London last week are a must read—not because they change the European game, but for how they illustrate the tension between the ECB chief’s tough-guy talk and the limited armoury under his command.

    5
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Houses and Jobs

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    Gavekal Research

    US Housing: It's The Inventory Stupid

    Here’s a conundrum for any economy watcher. The US housing recovery has gathered steam during 2012, and yet the broad economy remains weak as was highlighted by Friday’s 2Q12 GDP release which put growth at a measly 1.5%. So what gives?

    6
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    Gavekal Research

    The Next American Revolution

    Our little firm has spent much of the last decade telling investors to look east. Asia has thrived on the back of cheap labor which has cemented its status as an industrial powerhouse. But as countries such as China seek the good life, pushing incomes and consumption higher, other economies will be better placed to compete. We are increasingly convinced that the defining comparative advantage of the next decade will be having access to the...

    10
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    Gavekal Research

    The Euro Carry Trade

    6
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    Gavekal Research

    Say Goodbye To UK Austerity

    The -0.7% plunge in Britain’s quarterly GDP announced yesterday—the biggest decline in the British economy since 2009—was officially a “shock” to the markets, because consensus forecasts had predicted a decline of only -0.2%, according to Bloomberg. But the second quarter was bound to show a continuing deterioration in the British economy for two reasons we pointed out three months ago, when the downside “surprise” for the first quarter was...

    3
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    Fathom China

    Profile: Sany Heavy Industry: Coping With Collapse

    Good luck taking a snapshot anywhere in China without framing a bulldozer, excavator or crane. China’s 20-year construction orgy has meant boom times for makers of construction equipment, who have grown accustomed to 20% annual growth. Leading the way is Sany Heavy Industry, a spunky private company that has made dollar billionaires of its four entrepreneurial founders by producing many kinds of big outdoor construction machinery. But with...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Thailand's Mekong Dividend

    Thailand continues to outperform many other emerging markets, despite ongoing political dramas and the lingering disruptions from last year’s devastating floods. The explanation lies in growth and stimulus: the country is in the midst of an expanding credit and investment cycle, in large part thanks to an ongoing “catch-up development” story unfolding in the provinces. The northeast region, in particular, is burgeoning due to an economic...

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    Shadoks & Stock Markets

    5
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China's Unconventional Gas: Frack Or Famine?

    “Unconventional gas”—natural gas extracted from coal seams or relatively impermeable shale or tight rock formations—has already become a buzzword for the new decade. And with good reason: cheap shale gas in the US and coal seam gas in Australia are pushing down electricity costs and pushing up the supply of gas available for exports, portending big changes in the US economy and global gas markets.

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    US Equities: Size Trumps Speed

    Promoters of a “small cap effect” contend that corporate minnows have provided higher investment returns than the big fish in the pond. We would argue that the new paradigm of global investing means that investors in US equities should position themselves for a “large cap effect”. This is because big US firms benefit from scale advantages and use capital more efficiently than their smaller cousins. For investors prepared to step away from the...

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    Gavekal Research

    A Sweltering Summer For The Euro

    The euro crisis is taking another critical turn. Greece is under intense and probably unbearable pressure, while Spain faces sovereign yields near 7.5% which all but freezes it out from market financing. “Dr Draghi” is dispensing harsh medicine to the southern economies without outlining a treatment plan that may resuscitate the patient.

    6
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    Gavekal Research

    Russia's Reluctant Move To Abundance

    As Frederic Bastiat explained more than 150 years ago in his essay “Sophisms of the Protectionists” (read here), it is not easy to fight the arguments of the protectionists. This is mainly because “our adversaries in the discussion have a signal advantage over us. They can, in a few words, present an incomplete truth; which, for us to show that it is incomplete, renders necessary long and uninteresting dissertations”. Who then can be surprised...

    14
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    Gavekal Research

    The Food Scare

    Alarm bells are ringing again over soaring food prices. Severe drought led the US Department of Agriculture to slash its estimates for American harvests of key crops, and futures prices for corn, wheat and soybeans rocketed up by 55%, 50% and 25% respectively since June 15th. Headlines warn of a repeat of the emerging-market food price inflation scares of 2008 and 2010, the second of which contributed to the revolutions of the Arab Spring....

    14
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    Gavekal Research

    Export Wars: Germany 1, Japan 0

    Japan and Germany both started the new millennium with dominant positions in the global export market and both had strong incentives to keep it that way. Japan’s domestic economy was still deflating from an epic asset bubble burst, while Germany was reeling from unification with the East’s wrecked and unproductive ex-communist economy.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Horribly Crowded Chinese Trade

    China’s economy is clearly slowing both structurally (as the potential growth rate falls from 11% to 7%) and cyclically (we estimate sequential GDP growth is now a bit over 6%, thanks to weak investment spending). The question for equity investors is what impact does this downshift have for the overall market?

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Unlocking Mongolia's Treasure Chest

    Commodity prices boom when supply cannot respond fast enough to rapidly escalating demand. Those booms are destroyed when enough new capacity emerges to restore market balance. The past decade’s boom in prices of metals and minerals has been driven by China’s apparently insatiable demand, and has yet to be dented by a sufficiently large response on the supply side. Mongolia could change all that: its plans for developing world-scale, low-cost...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    US Equity Recapitulation

    The markets have certainly had a schizophrenic feel since early June as investors struggle to reconcile all of the competing news. Yesterday’s congressional testimony by Ben Bernanke offers a case in point; Bloomberg headlines declared that “hints of stimulus” by the Fed chairman were behind a rally in US stocks, a rise in treasury yields, and even explained a decline in European stocks. Such dissonance has been glaring since early June, with...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    ZIRP Goes To Europe

    Central banks have set the bar high for what is now considered “major monetary easing”. A bread-and-butter 25bp rate cut no longer qualifies, at least not usually. But last week the ECB not only cut the rate at which it lends to banks by 25bp to 0.75%, it also chopped the rate it pays on deposits by 25bp—to zero. The move focused attention on Mario Draghi’s assertive approach to policy, especially amid signs that deposits are fleeing the ECB....

    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Better Things Are On The Way

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