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E.g., 02-12-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    Charles' Presentation At Our June 26, 2012 NY Seminar

    At our recent New York seminar, Charles discussed the unintended consequences of excessively loose monetary policy. Attached is his presentation; this is mostly slides, with little text.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Upside To Failure

    With central banks printing like never before, investors have rightly been on the lookout for bubbles and other distortions in the past few years. Until recently, it looked like one such bubble was forming in the tech sector, or at least the pre-IPO portion of it. Facebook’s IPO stumble has set aside such concerns and for the tech industry’s dominant players, at least, this is likely to be a good thing. Yesterday Microsoft bought social...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Arthur Presents At Our June 26, 2012 NY Seminar

    At our recent seminar in New York, Arthur discussed why anecdotal evidence of China's economic strife does not necessarily reflect the bigger picture. Those interested can see his presentation attached.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Japan In The Limelight

    This is a big political week: important supreme court decisions in the US, another “make or break” European summit, and a Japanese vote to double the consumption tax to 10% by 2015. That’s right! Even the land where policy moves at a glacial pace should make headlines with a parliamentary vote scheduled for later today on a major reform of its tax code. The reason investors should care about this is because, if the Ministry of Finance achieves...

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    Gavekal Research

    US Equities: Once More Into The Breach

    Given the perilous state of the global economy US equities do not appear to be a screamingly obvious buy. The US recovery has stalled, deflationary pressures remain deeply set and major overseas economies are weakening (think Europe, China, Japan). As a result, siren calls are to be heard that corporate profits must soon plummet with equity valuations to follow thereafter. In such an environment would not the smart thing be to sit tight in US...

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    Gavekal Research

    Germany Has To Stay: A Riposte

    In his Reuters column last week (see here), and his recent Daily (see It May Be Time To Say “Auf Wiedersehen”), Anatole argues that it may be more logical for Germany to leave the eurozone, rather than Spain or Italy. Germany is indeed the main outlier in economic terms; if it were removed, intra-euro zone economic dispersion would be much lower. However a scenario where Germany is the only country that exits is not just improbable—it is also...

    14
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    Gavekal Research

    The Chance For Change

    Sometime this fall, a meeting of the elite of the Chinese Communist Party will briefly allow the outside world a glimpse of its inner workings, as it names the small group of people who will run this country for the next several years. At the Party Congress a combination of term limits and age limits will force the retirement of most of the current leadership, including President and Party General Secretary Hu Jintao, and Premier Wen Jiabao. The...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Euro End Game: Kate Welling Interviews Louis

    Since GaveKal’s launch more than a decade ago, Louis has had the great pleasure to catch up with Kate Welling every now and then. In her previous life, Kate used to interview money managers or strategists for an equity brokerage firm. Kate has now decided to branch out on her own and create Welling On Wall Street. Louis was very flattered when sje asked him to do one of the initial interviews for this new product -- Kate and Louis discuss the...

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    Gavekal Research

    India Turns King Coal Importer

    India is an energy-hungry economy which must substantially boost electricity generation if rapid growth is to be sustained. Its problem is a heavy reliance on coal-fired power stations even while domestic coal mine output is stagnant. As a result, Indian power firms last year imported 118 million tons of coal (versus 170mt for China) and, on current trends, may quickly dominate the seaborne trade. Despite a slowing economy, Indian coal demand in...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Go East Young Bond Buyer

    In the past, when markets were in risk aversion-mode, Asian assets suffered, often in magnified terms. The chart on the following page underlines how even Asian investment-grade bonds become assets-non-grata in times of financial panic. Yet in the past few weeks, equities are holding up, and regional bonds have seen some support—despite the fact that risk-off mode remains firmly in place with the EMU mess still unresolved, China numbers still...

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    Gavekal Research

    China Loosens QFII Rules

    When Thomas Jefferson remarked that “the natural progression of things is for liberty to yield and governments to gain ground,” he probably did not have China in mind—even if the Middle Kingdom had spent the previous centuries concentrating ever more power into the hands of one emperor, and would spend the next two doing the same. But once all the power is concentrated into one man’s hands, then Thomas Jefferson’s rule no longer applies and the...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Obsessed By Negative Real Rates

    7
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    Gavekal Research

    The Euro Debate And The Wizard Of Oz

    Confucius is said to have remarked: “When words lose their meaning, kingdoms become ungovernable”. We often think of this when debating whether the euro can “work,” for this term can mean very different things to different people. Proponents will argue that with greater federalism, continent-wide bank guarantees and national parliaments giving up power to the European Union, the euro can be made to “work”. Opponents, meanwhile, argue that it...

    7
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Finally, A Piece Of The Pie

    It has long been conventional wisdom that China’s millions of private enterprises face great difficulty in getting financing, as the state-owned banks prefer to lend their friends in large state firms. What lending private entrepreneurs can get is from shady sources at punishingly high interest rates, and can be withdrawn at the first sign of trouble. Yet this caricature has not kept up with the rapidly changing reality. The truth is that the...

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    Gavekal Research

    The RBI Does What It Can: Very Little

    We have been arguing for some time that India’s slowdown is a result of policy paralysis; the government will only move on reforms if it is forced by either an economic or political crisis. Yesterday the RBI held interest rates and the reserve ratio, despite government calls and investor expectations for loosening to counter the economic slowdown. This brave and responsible move essentially put the ball in the government’s court and added to the...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Power Prices And Bank Margins

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    Gavekal Research

    It May Be Time To Say "Auf Wiedersehen"

    Now that the Greek election is over, with the pro-bailout parties gaining enough seats for a slim majority, Europe can return to the regular cycle of panic, relief, disappointment and renewed panic, that we have observed for the past two years. This time, however, the relief rally may be even shorter than usual, since the market’s attention will soon shift from Athens to Madrid, Paris and, above all, Berlin. Since Greece has no chance of...

    18
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    Gavekal Research

    Drowning-By-Numbers: A €10 Trillion Game

    What kind of mess would financial institutions wake up to the day after a break-up of the eurozone? A very large one. In the decade to 2008, euro area financial institutions accumulated growing cross-border positions within the currency area, spurred on by officials, financial regulators and a complacent attitude toward risk. Over the past few years, and especially since the euro crisis intensified in 2010, European financiers have learned to...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    ECB Role Shift The Real Game Changer

    As the Euro crisis intensifies and yields on Spanish bonds reach new heights, the pressure on EMU policymakers has become intense. Markets are already looking through Sunday’s Greek election toward the EU leaders summit on June 28-29 to see if a grand bargain can be struck to forestall a Grexit and restore some confidence in GIPSI financial systems. From what we understand, Francois Hollande and Mario Monti have agreed to champion the following...

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    Gavekal Research

    "Yambo" Takes A Shot At the HK$ Peg

    In a paper this week that laid out alternatives to the Hong Kong dollar peg, ex-central bank head Joseph Yam characterized the city’s leaders as lacking the courage and foresight to upset the status quo. Few would argue with this assessment. Yet to be fair, sticking to what has worked in the past also shows a degree of modesty which is rare in government. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) is one of the few Asian central banks that has not...

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