Gavekal Dragonomics
December 10, 2018
Chinese steel prices suffered their biggest decline in two years in November, falling about 20% over the course of the month. That correction was driven by a combination of a big increase in supply along with worries about future demand. In this piece, Rosealea argues that both problems will be short-lived, and that steel prices can rebound.
Gavekal Research
December 10, 2018
November’s payroll report gave investors in US equities reason to cheer on Friday as it suggested reduced inflationary pressure, yet they chose to focus on an escalating row over the fate of a top Chinese telecom executive that is intensifying trade tensions with China. A -2.3% fall in the S&P 500 had the technically-inclined scrambling to glean meaning from a “death cross” as the 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day level.
Gavekal Research
December 7, 2018
The arrest last Saturday in Vancouver airport of the CFO of Chinese telecoms giant Huawei at the request of US prosecutors will have major consequences for investors beyond the short term market volatility it contributed to this week. Reaching a permanent US-China agreement is now much more complicated, and the arrest shows the US can use more than tariffs against China.
Gavekal Research
October 24, 2018
As Donald Trump has ramped up tariffs on US imports from China, investors have understandably grown anxious about the impact on world trade. Few significant effects have shown up in the data so far. Nevertheless the outlook is alarming—although not necessarily in the way many might think.
Gavekal Research
October 19, 2018
Three months ago in July, I argued that international investors should consider holding Japanese equities without hedging their currency exposure. A month ago in September, I revisited that call, concluding that it still held.
Gavekal Research
October 18, 2018
In 1939, Franklin Roosevelt famously dismissed reservations about Nicaragua’s brutal dictator Anastazio Somoza with the comment “he may be a sonofabitch, but he’s our sonofabitch.” In the world of foreign policy realpolitik, to a large degree FDR’s doctrine still holds true.
Gavekal Research
November 6, 2018
As the US prepares to wrap up its Congressional election season, Donald Trump’s administration is sending mixed signals on its China policy. The outcome of the upcoming G-20 meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping is now basically a coin-flip. Either way, argues Arthur, US pressure on China’s technology sector is likely to intensify.
Gavekal Dragonomics
October 25, 2018
There now seems to be little chance that the trade frictions between the US and China will be resolved anytime soon. So how are Chinese exporters dealing with the prospect of a steep rise in tariffs come January? Our analysts report from the Canton Fair on how exporters are coping now, and their strategies for the future.
Gavekal Research
September 28, 2018
Donald Trump’s trade war against China demonstrates that the Washington consensus is dead and buried. This suggests that the world will split into three monetary zones, each with its own anchor currency and risk-free asset class.
Gavekal Research
November 14, 2018
US analyst KX bases his equity calls largely on a Wicksellian model that compares the cost of capital with the returns earned by the corporate sector. We remain comfortable that this “spread” remains favorable for US firms, and so recommend a roughly 70% allocation to equities.
Gavekal Research
November 9, 2018
According to my Wicksellian analysis of the US, when the market rate of interest moves above the natural rate (essentially the structural growth rate of corporate profits), then a recession is coming, and investors should exit US equities and load up on treasuries.
Gavekal Research
November 7, 2018
The Democrats have wrested back control of the US House of Representatives, while Republicans have expanded their Senate majority. Hence, the US’s bicameral legislature is set for two years of gridlock. This was the most benign result possible from this midterm election. While largely expected, confirmation is probably positive for risk assets.
Gavekal Research
November 12, 2018
All political careers end in failure. Doubtless Angela Merkel is already feeling the sting. Even as the long-serving German chancellor stands up on Tuesday to address the European parliament in Strasbourg, political observers and investors are looking beyond Merkel’s term in office to the identity of her successor.
Gavekal Research
October 26, 2018
Among the factors rattling global markets this week has been the brewing dispute between Brussels and Italy’s populist government over its blowout budget proposal.The fear is that Italy gets into a vicious circle of tightening credit markets and faltering growth that could end with a resumption of the euro crisis and ultimately its exit from the si
Gavekal Research
October 15, 2018
This weekend’s election in Bavaria saw voters deal parties in Germany’s ruling coalition a bruising rebuff that further erodes Merkel’s authority and effectively kills off Macron’s plan for the EU to integrate at a faster pace.
Gavekal Research
October 31, 2018
Washington has opened a new front in the US-China economic cold war by slapping controls on exports of all “commodities, software and technology” to Chinese chipmaker Fujian Jinhua Integrated Circuit. The breath of the national security justification cited for this action escalates the US-China confrontation over technology to a new level.
Gavekal Dragonomics
October 1, 2018
Technology is at the heart of China’s trade conflict with the US, and no technology is more critical than semiconductors. So as the US moves to block its access to technology, China is doubling down on its drive to build up a domestic semiconductor industry. In this piece, Dan lays out the reasons why China’s drive will eventually succeed.
Gavekal Dragonomics
August 23, 2018
In the past years, billions of dollars of Chinese venture capital have poured into US tech firms. This is alarming to the US Defense Department, which believes these investments could lead to a flow of critical technology back to China, eroding the American advantage in fields such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and autonomous vehicles.
Gavekal Research
November 14, 2018
The latest round of data releases painted a mixed picture of Chinese economic activity in October. Most notably, credit growth was weak. Given that without an acceleration in credit growth there will be no broad pick-up in overall economic growth, this indicates that Beijing will loosen policy further over the coming months.
Gavekal Dragonomics
November 13, 2018
Chinese officials are making another call to renew reform of state-owned enterprises. But a return to privatization is far away: the most concrete aspect of SOE reform is the guided restructuring of central-government-controlled firms. In this piece, Yanmei explains how big SOEs are using M&A in different ways to achieve consolidation.
Gavekal Dragonomics
November 8, 2018
Supply-side reform, Xi Jinping’s signature policy of cutting excess capacity in steel, coal and other industries, is widely considered a success. Yet Rosealea’s extensive review finds that this campaign was marred by repeated misjudgments that caused undesired spikes in prices. The justifications for continuing the policy are now wearing thin.
Gavekal Research
November 13, 2018
The stand-off between Rome and Brussels over Italy’s 2019 budget claimed its first casualty on Monday.
Gavekal Research
November 12, 2018
Since the financial crisis, European equities have proven serial duds compared to their transatlantic cousins. Cedric argues this divergence is simple reflection of the higher earnings-per-share achieved by US firms. Looking forward, however, he says it will be almost impossible for US firms to maintain this profits gap.
Gavekal Research
October 15, 2018
Last week was an ugly one for equity markets on both sides of the Atlantic. But there was a crucial difference. US stocks are down from an all-time high set as recently as last month, with the S&P500 closing on Friday above (just) its 200-day moving average.
Gavekal Research
November 8, 2018
“Sanctions are coming,” proclaimed Donald Trump in a tweet last week, three days before the imposition of the latest US embargo on Iranian oil exports. The oil market was not impressed. Since late September, when crude hit four-year highs, the Brent price has slumped -16.7% from US$86.29 to US$71.91, with WTI falling -19.1%.
Gavekal Research
October 31, 2018
With the price of WTI crude oil now back below its 200-day moving average, Louis puts himself in the shoes of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and imagines what sort of leverage he could exert over Donald Trump, what this means for the enforcement of sanctions against Iran, and what that implies for the oil price going forward.
Gavekal Research
October 16, 2018
Louis investigates six of the most incongruous sets of relationships that have held sway this year and offers alternative explanations.
Gavekal Research
November 1, 2018
A key reason to hold Indian risk assets in recent years has been the presence of a strong government willing to incur short-term political pain in return for longer-term economic gain.
Gavekal Research
October 23, 2018
There is a Dickensian quality to Indian finance just now as banks struggle under bad debt piles and finance companies face a wholesale funding crunch after a recent high profile default.
Gavekal Research
August 29, 2018
As public spending is cranked up ahead of an election that is expected to be held next spring, India should be able to sustain its current level of economic growth for a while yet. However, the rate of expansion has likely passed the high water mark for this cycle, argue Udith and Tom in this quarterly update.
Gavekal Research
November 14, 2018
China imports more semiconductors than it does crude oil, highlighting its dependence on foreign technology and know-how. The US recognizes this weakness and is intent on squeezing China’s tech sector before it is able to produce the most advanced chips at home and in scale. For this reason, tech sits at the heart of the US-China tensions.
Gavekal Research
November 9, 2018
At Gavekal’s seminar in Hong Kong this week, Yanmei Xie, Arthur Kroeber and Will Denyer presented their latest views on China's economy, trade war, and how to approach asset allocation in the US.
Gavekal Research
November 9, 2018
At Gavekal’s seminar in London last month Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky presented on whether the world is breaking up into three different monetary zones, and whether this is a correction to, or an end to, the long-running global bull market.
Gavekal Research
November 2, 2018
The pound rose 2% yesterday after a statement from the British government that a Brexit deal could be expected by late this month. That has since been rowed back. Nevertheless, the UK is moving into an endgame where the most plausible outcomes are either a "soft Brexit", or a new referendum which results in the UK remaining in the EU.
Gavekal Research
October 22, 2018
As the Brexit negotiations enter their endgame, a stalemate has become the most likely outcome. Theresa May’s Conservative Party is now in open rebellion against her leadership, with Britain’s weekend press reporting that her government is just 72 hours from collapse.
Gavekal Research
September 24, 2018
After European Union leaders rejected Theresa May’s Chequers deal, the UK government is left with only two alternatives, argues Anatole. If Parliament in November is confronted with No Deal or No Brexit, the most likely outcome would be a new referendum and a vote to remain.
Gavekal Research
October 10, 2018
After a grim seven-month sell-off, it is natural to ask whether emerging markets now offer attractive value. Since its January peak, the MSCI emerging markets index has fallen -22%. The corollary has been a deep derating, which has left EM equities trading below their long term mean P/E ratios. However, a healthy dose of caution is warranted.
Gavekal Research
October 1, 2018
One of the reasons this summer’s sell-off in Argentinian debt was so vicious was that few international banks these days are willing to make markets in such “exotic” bonds, and even fewer are prepared to hold a substantial inventory. As a result, when foreign investors rushed for the exit, there was no market.
Gavekal Research
September 14, 2018
There are reasons to think that a 2% rise in the broad emerging market index over the last two days may be more than just a relief rally. For those investors who are minded to seek out EM equities, one of the more interesting options is Indonesia, which has unfairly been treated by investors as a sort of Asian Turkey.
Gavekal Research
December 6, 2018
This has been a miserable year across most asset classes, with markets roiled by tighter US dollar liquidity. Looking into 2019, Louis sees the investment environment being dictated by whether the US dollar liquidity situation really is easing, the overall US policy and the possibility for the “Chimerica” relationship to rupture.
Gavekal Research
November 28, 2018
India is beset with economic problems that range from a deepening credit crunch, a worrying stand-off between the government and central bank and a capital spending cycle that has never really gotten going. Yet despite these challenges, the economy keeps chugging along and should hit 7.5% growth in the current fiscal year.
Gavekal Research
October 11, 2018
In this month’s Research Conference Call Louis-Vincent Gave examined the present bad tidings from markets and asked whether the global bull market faces a denouement. Anatole Kaletsky argued that this sell-off will likely prove to be a temporary setback for emerging markets and that the global bull market may have further to run.
Gavekal Dragonomics
September 6, 2018
While China’s government is talking tough about containing its frothy property market, the market does not appear to be listening. Housing sales are still growing, price rises are accelerating and construction activity is robust. In this piece, Rosealea explains why property has outperformed, and updates her outlook for the rest of 2018.
Gavekal Dragonomics
July 26, 2018
The long decline in China’s housing inventories—the key factor driving the recovery in construction—now seems to have ended. After falling in 2015, 2016 and 2017, housing inventories are now on pace to end 2018 slightly higher. In this piece, Rosealea explains why this change will not spell the end of the construction cycle just yet.
Gavekal Dragonomics
May 29, 2018
Chinese government policy for the property market is turning tighter, a shift that will weigh on housing sales and construction activity in the rest of 2018. But Rosealea cautions against overreacting, arguing that the downcycle in property is still likely to be a shallow one, and that policy will loosen again once market conditions weaken.
Gavekal Research
November 23, 2012
In our politically correct age the pressure to bow down before certain popularly accepted and apparently proven “truths” can be overwhelming. In the aftermath of the US elections, two such nostrums are unnecessarily vexing investors—the urgency of deficit reduction and fear of higher taxes.
Gavekal Research
July 20, 2011
In A Study of History, Toynbee explains that the role of a society’s elite is to rise to the challenges of the times, and find solutions fitting to those times, even if this involves a radical break with the past.
Gavekal Research
February 28, 2011
Perhaps the most famous economic law is the one that there is no such thing as a free lunch. By keeping US short rates at abnormally low levels beyond the financial crisis and as growth bounces back beyond the dreams of the wildest optimists, the Fed increasingly seems to be trying to ‘feed the US economy for nothing’.