July 1, 2019
Macro Update: Trade Truce, Growth Tremors
It was a rocky second quarter for China, with trade tensions escalating and then easing, and domestic growth disappointing. In his latest chartbook, Chen Long assesses the current lay of the land. The growth slowdown is not over yet as macro policy has stayed relatively cautious, but easing trade tensions should boost equities and the currency.
June 26, 2019
Can Vietnam Win The Trade War?
Vietnam is being touted as the big winner of the US-China trade war as companies shift their supply chains toward the low-cost export powerhouse. In the long term that is likely. In the short term, however, an improved export performance may be partly down to Chinese exports being routed through Vietnam to escape US detection.
June 14, 2019
Enduring The Slowdown
China’s growth momentum faded noticeably in May, and while the government rolled out new supportive measures, they are fairly modest. The data over the next couple of months could be pretty uninspiring. But as Chen Long argues in this report, policymakers still prefer to soften the slowdown rather than try to generate a big cyclical upswing.