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E.g., 21-09-2018
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Pragmatism Will Prevail On Iranian Oil

    The US is preparing to re-impose sanctions on Iran, threatening to punish any country that continues to buy its oil. China has struck a defiant tone, and many analysts expect Chinese oil companies to ignore the US sanctions. But in this piece, Yanmei argues that Chinese importers have little choice but to sharply reduce their purchases from Iran.

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    Gavekal Research

    When To Buy UK Stocks

    “Deal or no deal” is the question blurring all UK investment decisions. Britain’s exit from the European Union should be settled before the end of the year, but the run-in will be nerve-wracking. Since Prime Minister Theresa May released her halfway-house “Chequers” plan in early July, investors have fretted that the UK may crash out of the EU next March with no new trading relationship in place. My colleague Anatole has consistently downplayed...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Digging In For A War Of Attrition

    Donald Trump’s administration has upped the ante in its trade war with China, imposing tariffs on an additional US$200bn of Chinese imports. The tariffs will take effect on September 24 at a rate of 10%, rising to 25% at the beginning of 2019 unless some kind of a deal can be worked out with Beijing. The chances of a deal are vanishingly small.

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    Towards US Goods Price Deflation

    Emerging economies have spent the last three or four months squirming under the weight of a strong dollar. The effect of such currency strength is now showing up in the US itself, with the price of both consumer goods and imports softening. This deflationary pressure may end up impacting real interest rates, and hence the relative attractiveness of US bonds and equities.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Economy On The Eve Of Trade War

    The number eight is traditionally a lucky number for Chinese. Exporters could be forgiven for not believing in that tradition: 2018 looks like it will join 1998 and 2008 as a year in which exports suffer a major shock. In this piece, Andrew evaluates the state of the economy as the US prepares more tariffs, and how China can manage the impact.

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    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call September 2018

    In this month’s research call, Will Denyer explains why he is still recommending a 75% equity exposure in a dedicated US portfolio. His call is based on an asset allocation method with three key components, namely, Wicksellian spreads, relative valuation tools, and a duration tool which shows how to divide a fixed income portfolio between bonds and cash.

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    Why You Should Buy Indonesia

    There are reasons to think that a 2% rise in the broad emerging market index over the last two days may be more than just a relief rally. For those investors who are minded to seek out EM equities, one of the more interesting options is Indonesia, which has unfairly been treated by investors as a sort of Asian Turkey.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A New Tool For Infrastructure Funding

    China’s government is worried about slowing growth, but also does not want to give up on financial de-risking. To balance these priorities, it has devised a new tool: “special-purpose” bonds issued by local governments. In this piece, Chen Long explains how this new way of funding infrastructure will work, and how much stimulus it can deliver.

    0
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    Asia And The Emergence Of A New Monetary Zone

    Having broadly developed as an integrated whole over the last 30 years, Charles thinks the world economy is now splitting into three big groups—North America, Europe and Asia. In this piece he considers Asia whose economies are increasingly coalescing around the renminbi and suggests a new-fangled balanced portfolio approach for maximizing risk-adjusted returns.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Near Term Direction Of The US Dollar

    The US dollar is trading bang on its 50-day moving average, and roughly where it was a year ago. Hence, it is tempting to conclude that it has not done much over the past 12 months. That would, of course, be wrong for the post-April rebound in the dollar explains the summer meltdown in emerging markets. And every investor today stands ready to increase or decrease risk in their portfolios depending on the next tick in the US dollar.

    17
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    Gavekal Research

    Why The US Cannot Win A Trade War

    The US has made a fundamental policy mistake in pursuing a trade war against China. A Keynesian macroeconomic analysis shows that the US will likely be worst affected by the conflict, while China should escape unscathed and several other emerging markets could be clear gainers. This sell-off may be an ideal opportunity to "buy the dip" in EMs

    7
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    An Irresistible Trade Policy Meets Immovable Interests

    The US-China trade war is coming, and it will not be a short one. The reason, Arthur writes, is that the Trump Administration is waging war not just on China, but on American multinational companies. The goal is to “decouple” the world’s two largest economies by encouraging US firms to invest less in China and more back home.

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    Gavekal Research

    Europe’s Populist Wave Peaks

    Since the migration crisis of 2015, nationalist-populist movements have been on a tear across Western Europe. Sunday saw the anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats boost their ranking, and even claim to be the election’s real winner. Yet look closer and what stands out over the last two years has been such parties’ failure to fully break through.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Drive For Affordable Drugs

    China’s healthcare reforms have created new opportunities for global pharmaceutical firms and made healthcare a favored sector for many investors. But as Ernan explains, the government’s top priority these days is controlling healthcare costs, especially drug prices. That trend makes it trickier to profit from China’s healthcare growth story.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Exit From A Liquidity Squeeze

    If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck. By the same token, if central bank reserves are shrinking, the US dollar is rising, and emerging market currencies are cratering, we probably face a liquidity squeeze. None of this should be surprising, as the drains on US dollar liquidity have come from all directions this year.

    7
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    Gavekal Research

    The Case Against Eurozone Stocks

    The eurozone may not face the kind of liquidity crunch roiling US dollar-based emerging economies, but its equity markets remain on a grinding downward trajectory. The MSCI EMU index is within 1.0% of this year’s low and a range of technical indicators make for ugly reading. I would advise global investors to generally avoid the single currency area, but for those who must be there I will slightly surprise myself by arguing that the eurozone’s...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Property Slowdown That Wasn't

    While China’s government is talking tough about containing its frothy property market, the market does not appear to be listening. Housing sales are still growing, price rises are accelerating and construction activity is robust. In this piece, Rosealea explains why property has outperformed, and updates her outlook for the rest of 2018.

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    The Signaling From US Autos

    Even as the US economy fires up on tax cuts and government spending, interest rate-sensitive sectors show signs of rolling over. First it was housing, and now auto sales have slid to the lower end of their range after steadily softening this year. Over the next year, the question is less whether autos can boost growth, as how much they will detract from it. The fact that the Trump administration is still considering significant tariffs on...

    2
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    On Getting It Wrong

    Louis went into 2018 with a set of assumptions about how growth and markets around the world would play out. It hasn’t exactly worked out as expected and in this mea culpa he seeks to understand how he got it wrong and what comes next. He concludes that a key driver of the changed investment environment was not so much the strength of the US dollar but China’s decision to allow a renminbi devaluation.

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    The Korean Advantage

    Yesterday was another bad day for weak-link emerging markets battling a rising US dollar. Still, my contention during this year’s EM sell-off has been that investors should sort the wheat from the chaff. With a current account surplus of 5% of GDP and forex reserves of US$400bn, exhibit-A is South Korea.

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