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E.g., 17-11-2018
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Reversal In The Renminbi?

    The renminbi’s 0.8% fall against the US dollar on Thursday was an unusual move for a managed exchange rate. But what was even more unusual was the preceding run-up: before that drop, the renminbi was up 2.8% YTD in trade-weighted terms. This overshooting the official goal of trade-weighted stability was what set the stage for the correction.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Secret Ingredient For Financial Stability

    China’s regulators have done a remarkable job of de-leveraging the financial sector without hurting economic growth or disrupting markets. But was this smooth trajectory due to luck or skill, and can it continue? In this piece, Chen Long explains how the central bank used its monetary policy tools to defuse the risks from tighter regulation.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Parsing The Market Sell-Off

    One of the first things Charles taught me is that in a bear market you should never do on the Monday what you wish you had done on the Friday. As bad news piles up, investors brood, sleep poorly, snap at their spouses or children, and go in first thing Monday morning and start to liquidate positions. Undeniably the picture for the now rather stretched equity bull market has been deteriorating for a while, with spiking bond yields, creeping...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Tightening The Grip On Urbanization

    The populations of Shanghai and Beijing, China’s two largest cities, declined in 2017, in a clear sign that urbanization policies are being enforced more strictly under Xi Jinping. In this piece, Ernan explains how planners have gotten more effective in restricting growth of the largest cities, how controls on almost all cities have tightened.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Mixed Consequences From The Profit Boom

    2017 was a great year for China’s industrial sector, with profits up 21%, but the gains were highly concentrated in mining, metals and materials. This pattern has a mix of important consequences, as Thomas explains in this piece: it’s good news for financial risk, less good news for households, and bad news for corporate investment.

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    Gavekal Research

    The US-China Economic Rivalry Is About To Heat Up

    Economic conflict between the US and China was the dog that didn’t bark in 2017. This year it has begun to bark loudly and will soon bite deeply. The short-term macroeconomic consequences will be modest, beyond putting more downward pressure on the dollar. But the potential long-run impact on trade and investment flows, and on power relations in the Asia-Pacific, could be large.

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    Gavekal Research

    Overbought But Still Undervalued

    Chinese stock markets are on a tear, with large cap A-shares up 8.9% and Hong Kong-listed H-shares up a thumping 16.3% year-to-date. After such a rapid rise, the markets are vulnerable to a near-term pull-back. But Chen Long explains that economic fundamentals, valuations and flows all suggest the bull market still has further to run.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Fewer Surprises From Supply-Side Reform

    China’s “supply-side reform” in coal, steel, and other products been a major swing factor for markets over the past two years. And Chinese officials started off 2018 by doubling down on their rhetoric about supply-side reform. But as Rosealea explains, there are good reasons to think the upside risk to commodities prices will be low this year.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Reviewing The Risks For 2018

    After a solid performance in 2017, worries about China have broadly receded, and our view is that 2018 should see continuity in economic policy and only a moderate slowdown in growth. In this piece, Andrew assesses the state of four major risks to this sanguine outlook, based on the latest economic data and a flurry of recent policy statements.

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    Gavekal Research

    Securing The Indo-Pacific

    Forty years after the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization was dissolved, Tom argues that an expanded version of that “Asian NATO” concept may be developing, but this time the potential theater of operations stretches across the Indo-Pacific and includes the full panoply of great powers. What has not changed is that China remains the protagonists’ key bogeyman.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Regulatory Storm Continues

    China’s financial-regulatory storm is far from over: in recent weeks, the banking regulator has issued a half-dozen new or proposed rules, and launched another campaign to uncover financial malpractice. While this means credit growth will slow further, Chen Long argues regulators can still avoid shocks to the economy and market sentiment.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    After The Bounce In Coal Demand

    After three straight years of decline, China’s consumption of coal rose 1% in 2017, and prices are rallying. But in this piece, Rosealea argues that this bounce in demand is unlikely to persist. With the property market cooling and official efforts to switch away from coal continuing, coal use should resume its decline in 2018.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    One More Cheerful Year In China

    A key driver of the synchronized global economic pickup and attendant rally in risk assets has been China’s shift from deflation to reflation. In 2018, a key question is whether China can sustain growth while containing financial risk. Arthur thinks it can easily do so, and in this paper outlines the reasons why.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China In 2018: Continuity And Centralization

    China is set for another year of decent growth in 2018. The latest set of policy conclaves have re-affirmed the broad policy direction: more emphasis on the quality of growth than its speed, and continued efforts in the "three key battles" against financial risk, poverty and pollution. The main financial goals are to cut corporate debt/equity ratios rather than to reduce overall national leverage.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Drains On Liquidity

    For ease of math, assume that the world consumes 100mn barrels of oil a day. Then further assume an inventory across the system equal to about 100-days’ usage (in pipelines, ships and refineries). Thus, when the price of oil rises by US$10/bbl in three months—as occurred in 4Q17—a “liquidity drain” of about US$100bn is created.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Big Questions For 2018

    Many of the important questions confronting investors at the beginning of 2018 are the same as they were 12 months ago. And in most cases I would suggest the same answers. This may seem boring or stubborn, but it is quite reasonable in the middle of a long term economic expansion and structural bull market.

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Macro Update: A Safe Landing In 2018

    In our quarterly chartbook, Chen Long reviews the economy’s direction since the Party Congress and explains the outlook for 2018. Financial regulation is tightening, and the tradeoff between growth and the environment is shifting. But with construction holding up and inflation surprisingly strong, the base case is still for a moderate slowdown.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Cui Bono?

    Today, with European growth humming along and Beijing having (again) shown an ability to keep China’s economy on a sustained expansion path, no one seems fazed about a possible economic downturn. Apart from the UK (where the obsession is Brexit), concern centers on geopolitical risks. Yet depending on their region, investors are worrying about very different things.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Questions For The Coming Year

    The apparent glide path into year-end suggests that 2018 should offer up more of the same seen in 2017. Louis does not rule out a continuation of this “Goldilocks” scenario, but worries that global inflation could be brewing in unexpected quarters at a time when frenzied trading in speculative assets such as bitcoin produces countervailing responses from policymakers. In this wide-ranging tour across the investment landscape he asks whether, in...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Is Beijing Winning The Battle For Blue Skies?

    An unprecedented campaign to reduce air pollution has shuttered factories across north China, with a success that has upended the consensus view that local-government officials always favor economic growth over the environment. In this piece, Yanmei examines whether this change in environmental enforcement is going to be temporary or permanent.

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