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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Macro Update: More Stress, More Easing

    In this concise chartbook, Chen Long explains where the Chinese economy stands today. The business cycle has been surprisingly strong but is likely to soften more in the second half. Trade conflict with the US is raising uncertainty just as domestic credit stress increases. Policy is adjusting, but to smooth the growth trajectory not reverse it.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Trouble With Trade Retaliation

    When this week US president Donald Trump threatened to slap tariffs on an additional US$200bn of imports from China, on top of the US$50bn already targeted, the Chinese government immediately promised to retaliate in full proportion. The trouble is that retaliating will be a lot more difficult and painful than Beijing’s counter-threats make it sound.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Easing Won’t Help Chinese Equities

    When the White House rattled global markets earlier this week with its threat markedly to escalate the international trade war, mainland Chinese stock markets were hit the worst. That is not surprising, considering that the US administration’s threats were targeted specifically at imports from China. However, the fall in Chinese markets was so severe, and the subsequent recovery so anemic, in part because investors’ heightened fears over trade...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Investment Scenarios Ahead

    The interaction of three prices—the US dollar, long-dated US interest rates, and oil—tend to determine the behavior of most other asset values, and so far this year, all three have moved higher. Investors have adjusted to this new reality with some trepidation: among major markets, only the US (S&P 500) and Japan (Nikkei 225, barely) are up year-to-date in US dollar terms.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Restructuring Of Retail

    China’s rapid shift to online shopping is emptying malls and forcing retailers to close hundreds of stores. But at the same time, the big internet companies are investing billions to seek new growth from brick-and-mortar stores. In this piece, Ernan explains how Chinese retail is restructuring and where the growth opportunities are.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Empire Strikes Back?

    Over the last 70 years the global population has tripled. Yet in defiance of every Malthusian theory out there, the average citizen of the world has never known such a high level of material comfort as today. To start with the obvious, the world has almost entirely eradicated the famines that plagued entire regions just a few generations ago (this isn’t to deny the humanitarian catastrophes unfolding today in Yemen or Syria, but these are caused...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Trade War Escalates. What’s Next?

    With the imposition of tariffs on US$34bn of imports from China last Friday, the US has expanded the trade war it launched two weeks earlier with steel and aluminum tariffs, mostly on friendly countries. More are likely to come by the end of the year: additional tariffs on China, and possibly levies on imports of cars and car parts (which again would mainly hurt US allies). It is possible that the US could pull out of Nafta. How worried should...

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Parsing The Slowdown In Credit Growth

    China’s credit growth slowed to a new low in May, but the deceleration in real economic activity remains a moderate one—although sharp contrasts are now appearing among different indicators. In this piece, Chen Long explains why credit growth is likely to continue to slow, and how that will affect different parts of the economy.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The 5G Dream Will Not Be Denied

    Now that the US has backed away from putting crippling sanctions on Chinese telecom-equipment firm ZTE, China looks well-placed to achieve its dreams for 5G, the next wave of mobile technology. Huawei and ZTE may be effectively blocked from the US market, but they are well-placed to grab a significant share of the global market for 5G.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: When To Buy US Bonds

    With 10-year US treasury yields having failed so far to climb significantly above the 3% mark, investors are asking whether it is time to buy US long bonds. In this short video interview, Will presents a simple framework for approaching the bond market. With the yield curve flat by historical standards, and yields far below their natural ceiling set by returns on invested capital, investors should steer clear of long bonds.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Is A Crisis Brewing Over Taiwan?

    Ominous clouds are gathering over Taiwan, as China steps up displays of military force and its campaign of international isolation. Could this escalate into a replay of the 1995-6 Taiwan Strait crisis, or something even worse? In this piece, Yanmei assesses the rising risks, but argues that military conflict is still a remote possibility.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Marshals Over Markets: China Tightens Cybersecurity

    Our first DeepChina report takes a close look at Beijing's efforts to exert tighter control over the internet, the flow of commercial data, and the security of its technological infrastructure. China ia nor alone in toughening regulation, but its efforts are far more expansive, and raise more serious concerns for multinational firms.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Comes Off The Boil

    Chinese growth surprised on the upside in the early part of the year, but Andrew thinks that a gradual loss of altitude is now unfolding. This is mainly due to slowing property market activity, which increasingly displays late-cycle characteristics. This adjustment should not pose a major risk to other major economies, so long as other global factors do not become disruptive.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Property Tightening Is Back

    Chinese government policy for the property market is turning tighter, a shift that will weigh on housing sales and construction activity in the rest of 2018. But Rosealea cautions against overreacting, arguing that the downcycle in property is still likely to be a shallow one, and that policy will loosen again once market conditions weaken.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Urbanization Without Migration

    The story of China’s urbanization has long been the migration of people from the country to the cities. Not anymore: as Ernan explains, rural migration has slowed sharply, and is being replaced by the reclassification of rural areas into urban ones. Policymakers now prefer this “local urbanization,” even though it delivers less income growth.

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    Gavekal Research

    A Structural Change, Or A Return To The Mean?

    Chinese government bond prices have markedly outperformed treasuries for more than a year. This trend could be explained merely by cyclical factors, or that the Chinese fixed income market is going through a structural rerating, driven in part by the internationalization of the renminbi and the inclusion of Chinese government bonds in major benchmarks.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    An Attractive But Troublesome Market

    From June 1, China’s domestically-listed A-shares will be included in the MSCI Emerging Markets index, bringing the onshore market to the attention of many global investors for the first time. In this piece, Thomas examines recent developments in the A-share market, and outlines the promises and pitfalls of investing under China’s “regulatory firestorm”.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Hong Kong Peg Under Pressure

    The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has again been intervening in the foreign exchange market after it stepped in last month when the Hong Kong dollar fell to its weakest in 35 years. So far the HKMA has bought HKD62bn, selling almost US$8bn to defend the Hong Kong dollar’s peg to the US dollar. In this video interview, Tom Holland explains what’s going on, and why there is zero risk Hong Kong will be forced to devalue its currency.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Bond Yields Have Further To Fall

    After a sharp decline in March and April, Chinese onshore bond yields have bounced back over the past three weeks. But based on the latest economic data and policy signals, Chen Long thinks that bond yields have further to fall. Growth is continuing to slow, and the central bank seems comfortable with a slightly more accommodative stance.

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  • Gavekal Dragonomics

    What’s Really At Stake In The US-China Rivalry

    It is still possible that the US and China will strike a deal to avert threatened tariffs. But as Arthur argues in this piece, any deal will be mostly cosmetic. The tension between the two is not mainly about trade, but about China’s challenge to US global dominance. The US will almost certainly keep trying to counter China’s efforts to gain power.

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