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    Gavekal Research

    No Renminbi Line In The Sand

    The renminbi has jumped over the last two days after the central bank signaled it would squeeze offshore liquidity. However, argue Long and Tom, it would be wrong to interpret this as a sign the PBOC will defend a line in the sand at 7. Embracing flexibility makes more sense as an exchange rate policy. The PBOC is just aiming to smooth volatility.

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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Yes, We're Still In A Bull Market

    Anatole and Will believe that continued exposure to US equities makes sense, since underlying corporate profitability remains strong. So long as one avoids the most rate-sensitive sectors, US portfolios should be 70-75% in stocks, with the rest mainly in cash. Moreover, they argue that the period of EM underperformance is now done, and emerging markets are poised for a significant rally.

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    Gavekal Research

    Has Oil Set Its High For This Cycle?

    With the price of WTI crude oil now back below its 200-day moving average, Louis puts himself in the shoes of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and imagines what sort of leverage he could exert over Donald Trump, what this means for the enforcement of sanctions against Iran, and what that implies for the oil price going forward.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    First Blood In The Long Tech War

    Washington has opened a new front in the US-China economic cold war by slapping controls on exports of all “commodities, software and technology” to Chinese chipmaker Fujian Jinhua Integrated Circuit. The breath of the national security justification cited for this action escalates the US-China confrontation over technology to a new level.

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    Beijing Seminar — October 2018

    At Gavekal’s seminar in Beijing last week, Louis-Vincent Gave, Udith Sikand and Chen Long presented their latest views on the turn in global markets, the prospects for emerging markets in the quarters ahead, and on China's policy priorities as it faces down the US in a prolonged rivalry.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Policy Constraint From Property

    The hot property market is one of the major constraints on Chinese policymakers’ freedom to stimulate: surging prices and construction do not need more juice. In this piece, Rosealea explains why more decisive stimulus is very unlikely before the property market weakens significantly, and even then will not be as large as in previous cycles.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    On The Front Lines Of The Trade War

    There now seems to be little chance that the trade frictions between the US and China will be resolved anytime soon. So how are Chinese exporters dealing with the prospect of a steep rise in tariffs come January? Our analysts report from the Canton Fair on how exporters are coping now, and their strategies for the future.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    World Trade And A Troubling Signal

    As Donald Trump has ramped up tariffs on US imports from China, investors have understandably grown anxious about the impact on world trade. Few significant effects have shown up in the data so far. Nevertheless the outlook is alarming—although not necessarily in the way many might think.

    5
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Still Waiting For Stimulus

    At the moment it seems there is only one question about China that people care about: when will the government move more aggressively to stimulate growth? With most economic indicators slowing in September, the time when the government will need to change course is getting closer. But, as Andrew explains in this piece, it is not here yet.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Why China Is Unlikely To Fold

    To many outside observers, China’s economy looks like a house of cards that is vulnerable to collapse should the US push a little harder in its trade actions. Louis is not convinced that this market-focused analysis of China’s situation properly reflects its vulnerability. He thinks the leadership is dug in for a long struggle against Washington.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    More Loans For The Private Sector

    China’s central bank is trying a new strategy to help private companies get access to credit. Rather than just push small-business lending, it is encouraging lending to all private firms, including larger ones. In this piece, Thomas explains why the old strategy wasn’t working, and why the new one is more likely to help the private sector.

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    Gavekal Research

    A Better Class Of Bear Market

    Although China’s A-shares are the world’s worst performing major market this year, this bear market is turning out to be a very different animal from that of 2015. Authorities are taking a very different strategy: rather than trying to prop up prices, regulators have focused on making technical changes to improve the way the market functions.

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    Gavekal Research

    Six Impossible Things Before Breakfast

    Louis investigates six of the most incongruous sets of relationships that have held sway this year and offers alternative explanations. In particular, he focuses on the strange case of China’s response to US trade hostility and argues that understanding Beijing’s game plan may hold the key to whether the long US bull market in equities can stay the course.

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    Gavekal Research

    Hidden Leverage In Hong Kong

    Last month, for the first time in 12 years, Hong Kong banks raised their prime lending rates. This increase, coming at a time when the Hong Kong government has pledged to boost housing supply, has prompted fears that rising mortgage rates and falling home prices could expose a dangerous accumulation of hidden leverage in the local property market.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Bonds' Failure To Rally

    Given all the bad news for markets this year, one would be forgiven for thinking that US treasuries and German bunds would have been a good investment. But even as emerging markets have sold off and the US dollar has risen against almost every emerging market currency out there, US treasuries (and to a lesser extent bunds) have been an absolute dog of an investment.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call October 2018

    In this month’s Research Conference Call Louis-Vincent Gave examined the present bad tidings from markets and asked whether the global bull market faces a denouement. Anatole Kaletsky argued that this sell-off will likely prove to be a temporary setback for emerging markets and that the global bull market may have further to run. However, he warned that the outcome will depend heavily on where the oil price goes from here.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Building The Northern Powerhouse

    After a decade of splurging on infrastructure projects, China’s local governments are now having to cut back. But Beijing has continued to pour money into centrally supported initiatives, particularly Xi Jinping’s pet project for developing the region surrounding Beijing. In this piece, Tom reports on how this northern megaproject is progressing.

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    Gavekal Research

    The EM Value Question

    After a grim seven-month sell-off, it is natural to ask whether emerging markets now offer attractive value. Since its January peak, the MSCI emerging markets index has fallen -22%. The corollary has been a deep derating, which has left EM equities trading below their long term mean P/E ratios. However, a healthy dose of caution is warranted.

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    Gavekal Research

    Beijing Is Aiming At Stabilization, Not Stimulus

    Chinese authorities are stepping up the pace of monetary easing, and are prepared to tolerate greater exchange rate volatility as a consequence. But, as Chen Long explains in this piece, Beijing’s easing measures are aimed at stabilizing the domestic economy, not stimulating activity in response to a trade-war-induced slump.

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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Are We Still In A Bull Market?

    At the start of the year, markets seemed poised for a rotation out of US equities into non-US assets. In fact, US equities and cash are the only assets to have delivered positive returns this year. Louis examines the reasons why and concludes that portfolio managers should stay defensive, while looking for buying opportunities in oversold emerging markets, and in European assets in non-euro countries such as the UK, Sweden and Switzerland.

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