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    Gavekal Research

    Reasons To Buy The Dip

    After spending many years as Gavekal’s equity permabull, I joined Charles and Louis last December in warning of the risks to what was then a roaring, and accelerating, bull market. But my way of thinking about these risks was rooted in a different analytical framework, and so I have come to a different conclusion about how investors should respond to this latest sell-off (for Louis’ take, see Following Yesterday’s Pullback). With the lows of mid...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Video: Making Sense Of China's New Era

    In this lively presentation from our recent London seminar, Tom Miller outlines the dramatic political changes that have been taking place in China. He explains what Xi Jinping’s new status means for economic policy and governance, and how the links between the Communist Party and the state are being strengthened.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    How Steel Survived The Battle For Blue Skies

    It’s been a wild winter for China’s steel industry, with huge swings in output and prices. The main culprit is the aggressive official campaign to reduce air pollution—and the industry’s creative responses to it. Their back-and-forth has not hurt underlying growth much, but the resulting volatility in steel prices is not going away.

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    Gavekal Research

    Ready For A Further P/E Derating

    I see but through a glass darkly. Sometimes, however there are glimmers of light. Four months ago, in early December, I examined the signals being broadcast by the various investment rules I have long followed and concluded that: “While global markets have been stable for the past 18 months, we may soon be entering a period of greater instability.”

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    Gavekal Research

    Following Yesterday’s Pullback

    Two weeks ago I looked back at Enron’s collapse in 2001 and asked whether a crash-and-burn at Tesla or Uber would be this cycle’s catalyst for a fundamental re-assessment of business models. But perhaps my sights were set too low, as this roll-over was triggered not by a cash-burning profligate flaming out, but by turmoil engulfing the Facebook gorilla, and by extension the likes of Google and Snap, which rely on “the user being the product”.

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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Navigating In Choppy Waters

    With its latest sell-off, the S&P 500 capped two months of volatility by moving officially into correction territory: down -10% from its January high, and below its 200-day moving average for the first time in two years. Is this the end of the long US equity bull market? In this edition of our Strategy Monthly, we offer three perspectives on how investors should position themselves in these more volatile times.

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    Gavekal Research

    Can EMs Survive A Trade War And Keep Thriving?

    A US-China trade war would disrupt trade, likely drive up inflation and potentially spark a general risk-off move in markets. This scenario would be pretty terrible for emerging markets, but Joyce reckons it is a tail risk and the general outlook remains decent. In this chartbook, she reviews EMs' vulnerability to a trade bust and explains why profits should drive a maturing cycle that increasingly favors commodity-focused markets outside...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Macro Update: Centralization Amid Conflict

    In our latest chartbook, Chen Long outlines a relatively positive cyclical economic picture for China, with steady macro policy, strengthening financial regulation, and further political centralization. The risks to this outlook are tightening property policies, a local government funding squeeze and the looming threat of a US-China trade conflict.

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    Gavekal Research

    On Protectionism

    As the US toughens up its negotiating stance on trade, it seems that ghosts from the Great Depression haunt the land. The men of Davos can be heard to intone gravely that President Donald Trump is aping Herbert Hoover, and as in the 1930s, the global economy may go into a tailspin. I am struck that our cherished elites have discovered a form of government intervention that they do not like, especially given their support for so many other “...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Pain Of Power Producers

    The rebound in commodity prices since 2016 has been a boon for much of China’s industrial sector—but coal-burning power plants have been big losers. Coal prices cannot go much higher without causing serious financial distress. This means that policy should now be shifting to favor power producers, by ensuring coal prices do not climb further.

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Trade Wars: A China Expert Roundtable

    Last week’s sharp equity market sell-off followed the US effectively threatening China with a trade war. In this report, Arthur, Long and Andrew address China’s capacity to strike back and explore what it means for the relationship between the world’s two biggest economies.

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    Gavekal Research

    Farewell My Lovely Bull Market

    No doubt market pundits will go on discussing the trigger of last week’s sell-off in equity markets and debating its implications ad nauseam. But whatever the proximate cause of the latest risk-off, it is looking increasingly as if the uncomplicated, low volatility bull-market-in-everything that prevailed through much of last year is now no more than a pleasant memory. With markets apparently intent on retesting the lows set in early February,...

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    Gavekal Research

    Trade Wars: Advantage China

    In the US-China trade war, China is skillfully playing Go while the US is playing tic-tac-toe, badly. Arthur analyses the announcement of US$60bn worth of tariffs by the US on Chinese imports and finds the US flailing without a firm strategy. But behind the news, a dangerous consensus has emerged among America’s elites which holds that China’s rise comes at the US’s expense, and must be checked.

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    Gavekal Research

    London Seminar — March 2018

    In our seminar in London this week Charles pondered the investment consequences of the US moving back into an inflationary period. Tom discussed Chinese politics in light of Xi Jinping’s elevation. Cedric presented on how investors can best benefit from the diversity of the European economy. Anatole explained why the long-running global bull market is likely to continue, but also where the risks are buried.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Beyond Anti-Corruption

    China’s legislature has approved the creation of a national “supervision” system, an arm of government equal to the executive, legislative and judicial branches that is charged with overseeing the vast public sector. As Yanmei explains, the new system transforms Xi Jinping’s signature anti-corruption crusade into something even more ambitious.

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    Gavekal Research

    The New Economic Team

    China’s top economic team for the next five years was released this morning, and the theme seems to be “steady as she goes”, with a vote of confidence for experts in their fields. Chen Long has looked at the list, which includes a new PBOC governor, and offers his take on what this means for financial policy in the years ahead.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Fixing The Model

    Earlier this week Will issued a mea culpa report that explained why he was revising his Wicksellian asset allocation model and substantially changing his recommendations for the US market. In this video interview he explains the story behind this revision.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Cold Weather, Hot Data

    China’s first data release of 2018 delivered a couple of surprises, with a big jump in industrial value-added and a pickup in real-estate investment. But neither amounts to a convincing signal that the economy is actually re-accelerating. The most likely outcome is still a moderate growth slowdown driven by a shallow downcycle in property.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A New Organization Chart

    China yesterday unveiled a sweeping plan to reorganize its central government. In this piece, Yanmei explains how Xi is streamlining administration and empowering new agencies to carry out his distinctive domestic-policy priorities of environmental protection, risk control, and poverty alleviation, as well as his assertive foreign policy.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Curious Case Of The HK Dollar

    One of the longest awaited adjustments in financial markets may finally be about to happen. Last year, betting that Hong Kong dollar interest rates would rise to converge with US dollar rates was reckoned to be among the surest trades in world markets. Yet the convergence never happened. Over the last 12 months, one-month Hong Kong dollar Hibor has consistently traded at a discount to one-month US dollar Libor of more than 30bp. And since the...

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