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E.g., 24-10-2017
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Hollywood Hoo-ha

    Chinese investors have developed a taste for Hollywood, but their buying spree has drawn more scrutiny than tangible benefits. With their wings clipped by new foreign investment rules, their focus will turn back to their home market.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Finally, China Learns To Kick Ass

    When future historians seek to mark the moment when China celebrated its arrival as a world power, they may well point to its newly crowned highest-grossing movie, Wolf Warrior 2. The film is repudiates every sick-man-of-Asia slight China has suffered since the Opium War, and tells the world: those days are over; China is powerful; get used to it.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Rebooting China Inc.

    Beijing is tightening controls on cross-border deals. The good old days of unhindered and lavish outward investment are over. Strategic ODI is back in fashion, with China’s SOEs at the helm.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Dealing The Right Kind Of Opium

    Xi Jinping’s embrace of traditional Chinese religions is a highly political move to build up popular support. But his hostility to Christianity, Islam and Tibetan Buddhism could cost him dearly in terms of social stability.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Three Sets Of Books

    China’s financial system has grown dizzyingly complex, but at its heart sit the banks, which provide most of the funds for shadow lending by non-banks. To assess the system’s risks, we need to understand the banks’ three credit books: their loans, their “investments” routed through non-banks, and their off-balance-sheet wealth management products.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: The Financial Labyrinth

    Is China’s financial system going to collapse? The speed of credit growth, the proliferation of financial institutions and financial products, and the chaotic and fragmentary data all make it reasonable to fret that China is on the verge of catastrophe. This issue of the CEQ is our attempt to bring clarity to this mystifying landscape.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Straight On Through The Party Congress

    China’s economic data for August confirmed that growth has stepped down a bit in the third quarter. The long-anticipated slowdown is for real, but is also still quite gradual. Andrew argues that policymakers will be comfortable with this situation, and that we should not expect a big change of direction after the Party Congress in October.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Asian Hardware Makers Trump California Engineers

    When Apple launched its new lineup of smartphones a couple of days ago, the loudest cheer may have come not from its new donut ring headquarters in Cupertino, but the factory lands of Taiwan and Korea that house its key component suppliers. Launching a flagship phone whose innards are in short supply represents a subtle shift in power from software engineers in California to hardware makers in Asia.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Disasters, Bond Yields And The Dollar

    In the past few weeks the US administration cut a deal with opposition Democrats to keep the government open, increasing the likelihood of a budget deficit expansion, and a string of natural disasters have roiled North America. In turn, these events seem to have triggered a sell-off in the US dollar and a global bond rally. Louis outlines two scenarios for where things could go from here.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    After The Renminbi Rally

    The last renminbi bears are throwing in the towel: with Chinese corporates unwinding the dollar holdings they have accumulated over the last two years, the renminbi is up strongly. Although the PBOC is for now happy to step back and let appreciation happen, there are still limits to how much it will want the trade-weighted exchange rate to rise.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research September Call

    In yesterday’s monthly call Louis Gave presented his view on the global investment outlook for the rest of the year. He argued that the key story so far in 2017 has been the strong performance of Asian equities, which has added a second leg to a bull market led by US technology and consumer stocks. The question is whether this can last.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The New Economy Takes The Baton

    Second-quarter earnings for Chinese listed companies showed heavy industry still enjoying strong profit growth, but the more important trend is the consistent rise in profits in the “new economy.” As industrial reflation gradually cools, Thomas argues, these consumer, healthcare, and technology firms are set to outperform.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    A New World Order In The Making

    It’s all too easy to laugh at the BRICS group, a motley crew of five developing nations with little in common other than the fact that they’re (mostly) big and not yet rich. The term has been mocked as a “Bloody Ridiculous Investment Concept”. So why do the BRICS themselves take it so seriously?

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: A Two-Legged Equity Bull Market

    For the past several years, the brightest spot in global equity markets has been the US, and in particular tech and consumer stocks. This is changing, and we now have a "two-legged" equity bull market led both by US tech stocks and by a resurgent Asia. In our review of global investment conditions Louis explains why this is so, and argues none of the obvious land mines is likely to go off at any time soon.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Difference A Couple Of Years Makes

    In August 2015 the offshore renminbi fell -4.5% against the US dollar, unleashing a global panic as investors fretted that another big deflationary downdraft beckoned. Fast forward to August 2017 and the renminbi rose a little over 2.07%, making it the world’s best performing major currency—it even outstripped rises in the euro and Scandinavian currencies.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Tremors On The North Korean Border

    Yanmei Xie reports from China’s border with North Korea, where local residents and officials were left largely unshaken yesterday by the earth tremors from Kim Jong Un’s latest and biggest test of a nuclear bomb. Despite imposing some trade sanctions on its troublesome neighbor, Beijing has no desire to back the North Korean regime into a corner.

    14
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Housing Prices Set To Slowly Cool

    Housing prices have had a wild ride in China this year, but with sales now cooling, prices are also losing steam. In this piece, Rosealea argues that the coming correction in housing prices will be a moderate one—probably about half of the 10% nationwide decline in 2014—as inventories are still low and policies are not particularly tight.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Deteriorating Market Signals?

    We have a rule of thumb at Gavekal that when the S&P 500 equal-weighted outperforms the “S&P 500 index”, our equity clients are cheery since beating the benchmark is fairly easy. At such times, clients will typically take more risk. The reverse is, of course, true: outperformance by the S&P 500 makes for grumpy clients, tougher meetings, and less appetite for risk-taking. In the latter case, there is a tendency for investors to rush...

    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Mortgages Take A Bite Out Of Consumption

    Despite the recovering economy, household consumption in China has slowed this year rather than accelerated. As Ernan explains in this piece, the culprit is the surge in mortgage debt, which has meant a sharp increase in the burden of mortgage payments on household budgets. While income growth is solid, less of the gains are available to spend.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Unicom’s Mixed-Ownership Mixup

    China Unicom says its US$11.6bn share placement will bring it ten new strategic shareholders, including the nation's biggest internet firms. State media are touting the deal as a triumph of the "mixed ownership" reform for state enterprises, but it looks more like a bailout timed to score political points ahead of this fall's Party Congress.

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