E.g., 20-11-2018
E.g., 20-11-2018
We have found 3182 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Solving The Private Sector's Liquidity Crisis

    China’s leaders are now falling over themselves to show love for the private sector. This political rhetoric has a practical purpose: easing the financial stress on private firms that is freezing up the corporate bond market and driving down stock prices. In this piece, Thomas examines the tools for solving the private sector’s liquidity crisis.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    China Data: Worse Before It Gets Better

    The latest round of data releases painted a mixed picture of Chinese economic activity in October. Most notably, credit growth was weak. Given that without an acceleration in credit growth there will be no broad pick-up in overall economic growth, this indicates that Beijing will loosen policy further over the coming months. But how far and how fast?

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Battle For Chinese Tech

    China imports more semiconductors than it does crude oil, highlighting its dependence on foreign technology and know-how. The US recognizes this weakness and is intent on squeezing China’s tech sector before it is able to produce the most advanced chips at home and in scale. For this reason, tech sits at the heart of the US-China tensions.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Next Wave Of SOE Consolidation

    Chinese officials are making another call to renew reform of state-owned enterprises. But a return to privatization is far away: the most concrete aspect of SOE reform is the guided restructuring of central-government-controlled firms. In this piece, Yanmei explains how big SOEs are using M&A in different ways to achieve consolidation.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    London Seminar — October 2018

    At Gavekal’s seminar in London last month Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky presented on whether the world is breaking up into three different monetary zones, and whether this is a correction to, or an end to, the long-running global bull market. Micahel Clendenin of Gavekal RedTech explained how they conduct research on the Chinese technology and internet sector.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Hong Kong Seminar — November 2018

    At Gavekal’s seminar in Hong Kong this week, Yanmei Xie, Arthur Kroeber and Will Denyer presented their latest views on China's economy, trade war, and how to approach asset allocation in the US.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Many Misjudgments Of Supply-Side Reform

    Supply-side reform, Xi Jinping’s signature policy of cutting excess capacity in steel, coal and other industries, is widely considered a success. Yet Rosealea’s extensive review finds that this campaign was marred by repeated misjudgments that caused undesired spikes in prices. The justifications for continuing the policy are now wearing thin.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Handicapping The Trump-Xi Summit

    As the US prepares to wrap up its Congressional election season, Donald Trump’s administration is sending mixed signals on its China policy. The outcome of the upcoming G-20 meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping is now basically a coin-flip. Either way, argues Arthur, US pressure on China’s technology sector is likely to intensify.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Pledged Shares Put Private Firms In Peril

    China’s bear market has created a crisis for hundreds of listed companies whose shareholders had pledged shares as collateral for bank loans, and now face the threat of margin calls. In this piece, Thomas explains the share-pledging crisis and how it is reshuffling corporate ownership, as state entities and others move to rescue distressed firms.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    No RMB Line In The Sand

    The renminbi has jumped over the last two days after the central bank signaled it would squeeze offshore liquidity. However, argue Long and Tom, it would be wrong to interpret this as a sign the PBOC will defend a line in the sand at 7. Embracing flexibility makes more sense as an exchange rate policy. The PBOC is just aiming to smooth volatility.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Yes, We're Still In A Bull Market

    Anatole and Will believe that continued exposure to US equities makes sense, since underlying corporate profitability remains strong. So long as one avoids the most rate-sensitive sectors, US portfolios should be 70-75% in stocks, with the rest mainly in cash. Moreover, they argue that the period of EM underperformance is now done, and emerging markets are poised for a significant rally.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Has Oil Set Its High For This Cycle?

    With the price of WTI crude oil now back below its 200-day moving average, Louis puts himself in the shoes of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and imagines what sort of leverage he could exert over Donald Trump, what this means for the enforcement of sanctions against Iran, and what that implies for the oil price going forward.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    First Blood In The Long Tech War

    Washington has opened a new front in the US-China economic cold war by slapping controls on exports of all “commodities, software and technology” to Chinese chipmaker Fujian Jinhua Integrated Circuit. The breath of the national security justification cited for this action escalates the US-China confrontation over technology to a new level.

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Beijing Seminar — October 2018

    At Gavekal’s seminar in Beijing last week, Louis-Vincent Gave, Udith Sikand and Chen Long presented their latest views on the turn in global markets, the prospects for emerging markets in the quarters ahead, and on China's policy priorities as it faces down the US in a prolonged rivalry.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Policy Constraint From Property

    The hot property market is one of the major constraints on Chinese policymakers’ freedom to stimulate: surging prices and construction do not need more juice. In this piece, Rosealea explains why more decisive stimulus is very unlikely before the property market weakens significantly, and even then will not be as large as in previous cycles.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    On The Front Lines Of The Trade War

    There now seems to be little chance that the trade frictions between the US and China will be resolved anytime soon. So how are Chinese exporters dealing with the prospect of a steep rise in tariffs come January? Our analysts report from the Canton Fair on how exporters are coping now, and their strategies for the future.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    World Trade And A Troubling Signal

    As Donald Trump has ramped up tariffs on US imports from China, investors have understandably grown anxious about the impact on world trade. Few significant effects have shown up in the data so far. Nevertheless the outlook is alarming—although not necessarily in the way many might think.

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Still Waiting For Stimulus

    At the moment it seems there is only one question about China that people care about: when will the government move more aggressively to stimulate growth? With most economic indicators slowing in September, the time when the government will need to change course is getting closer. But, as Andrew explains in this piece, it is not here yet.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: Why China Is Unlikely To Fold

    To many outside observers, China’s economy looks like a house of cards that is vulnerable to collapse should the US push a little harder in its trade actions. Louis is not convinced that this market-focused analysis of China’s situation properly reflects its vulnerability. He thinks the leadership is dug in for a long struggle against Washington.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    More Loans For The Private Sector

    China’s central bank is trying a new strategy to help private companies get access to credit. Rather than just push small-business lending, it is encouraging lending to all private firms, including larger ones. In this piece, Thomas explains why the old strategy wasn’t working, and why the new one is more likely to help the private sector.

    0
Show me: results