E.g., 21-10-2017
E.g., 21-10-2017
We have found 1859 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    How Bad Is The Dollar Squeeze?

    This has not been your regular dollar squeeze. Over the last month, the cost of obtaining US dollars offshore has soared to levels last seen in “crisis” periods, yet bank equities have rallied the most in six years. Rather than a new crisis unfolding, we seem to be transitioning to a macro environment where dollars are structurally scarce. This will be challenging for weak link economies, as shown yesterday by adverse market moves in Brazil and...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Only The Start Of The Trumpflation Trade

    Three weeks after the US presidential election, and it looks as though the Trumpflation trade may be running out of puff. Far from it, argues Anatole. With US policy about to swing from monetarist to Keynesian, markets are only at the start of a long term bear market in bonds and a bull market in the US dollar that will have enormous repercussions on asset prices around the world.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Something's Gotta Give

    Louis Gave held a conference call on December 6 where he discussed the state of global markets as the US gets ready for a Trump presidency. The fundamental challenge for investors is that while equities and the US dollar have rallied strongly and bonds have sold off in a “Trump reflation trade,” it is not clear how long that trade can withstand the reality of Trump’s economic program.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Gavekal Monthly: Preparing For The Trumped-Up Economy

    Markets have been on a startling trajectory since Donald Trump upended investors’ assumptions with his win in the US presidential election. In this issue of the Monthly two Gavekal partners ask whether the macro environment really has fundamentally shifted due to the emerging policy platform of the president-elect.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Wicksellian Spread Update

    US economic growth and corporate profits both rebounded in the third quarter. Yesterday the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised its number for 3Q16 growth in gross domestic product up from 2.9% to 3.2% year-on-year. At the same time the BEA also released its first estimate of 3Q corporate profits, which at first glance also looked positive. For example, profits in the domestic non-financial sector jumped by an annualized 24% in 3Q, after falling...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Risk-On And The Rising US Dollar

    Inflation is when the haircut that used to cost you US$20 back when you had hair now costs you US$30. Looking at recent market moves, it seems that investors are increasingly pricing in, and even welcoming, a higher rate of US inflation. In a world in which deflation is a problem, currency depreciations such as those we have just witnessed (whether of the yen, the euro, the renminbi etc.) are bad news, for they accentuate deflationary pressures...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Investing By The (Wicksellian) Book

    As regular readers will know, I have spent much of the last 10 years studying, and attempting to enlarge upon, the work of the great 19th century Swedish economist Knut Wicksell. My mission has been two-fold: firstly to understand how Wicksell’s writings explain what we see happening in the global economy today, and secondly to translate his theories into practical tools to help investors make asset allocation decisions in the real world.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Cautionary Note On US Housing

    After months of anemic activity, US homebuilding picked up in October. This is a welcome development, given that residential construction is a key leading indicator for the overall economy, and that lately it has been close to sending a recession signal (see On The Brink Of Recession). However, the magnitude of the improvement should not be overstated. While housing starts did post the biggest monthly increase since 1982, this is a volatile...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Hong Kong Seminar — November 2016

    Arthur Kroeber presented his thoughts on the outcome of the US election, as well as an analysis of China's leadership politics. Will Denyer presented his thoughts on the US economy. Tom Miller gave an optimistic take on reforms in India under Modi's government.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Making America Great Again

    Markets have been sending contradictory signals since the US political equation changed radically 10 days ago. In this piece, Louis seeks to unscramble the mixed messages as he tries to feel his way into the new investment environment.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Arthur Kroeber: A New Era Of Sino-US Relations

    While Donald Trump has threatened to slap huge tariffs on Chinese exports, Arthur thinks this would be an act of self-harm given the economic co-dependence between China and the US. In this video interview, he maps out the likely evolution of relations between the two countries in the years ahead.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Trump’s Tax Plans And The Dollar

    Following last week’s US election result, the US dollar—as represented by the DXY index—has risen to test the upper bound of the range that has prevailed since the first quarter of 2015. At these levels the US currency looks overvalued, both in real effective exchange rate terms against other major currencies, and on a purchasing power parity basis. Yet it would be premature to bet against a break-out to the upside. Although the dollar’s REER is...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    When You Sleep With An Elephant

    It is always comforting to be back in familiar territory. In a long career in investment—45 years and counting—I have seen a few Mexican crises. All these years on, I have fond memories of the 1976 peso devaluation, and of the subsequent 1980 devaluation. I remember the 1982 debt crisis well, and the “década perdida”—the lost decade—which followed. Then came the hyperinflation of the early 1990s which led to the introduction in 1993 of the new...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Decision Tree From Here

    For months, I have argued that the MSCI World’s push to within a couple of percentage points of its all time high was driven by two powerful forces: the extremely low level of global bond yields, and the continued compression of foreign exchange volatility. I went as far as to argue that this environment was reminiscent of 1986-87, and the Louvre Accord, whose breakdown ultimately triggered the 1987 crash (see Forget Central Banks, Watch Foreign...

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Prospects For The US Bond Market

    Back in July, I wrote a paper on the US bond market which came to the conclusion that things were getting complicated. My thesis at the time was that there was no value left in the US long bond—the 30-year treasury—and that it could no longer be used as a hedge against a potential deflationary bust. At the time the long bond yield was around 2.3%. Since then the election of Donald Trump as president of the US has had a severe impact on bond...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research November Call

    Anatole Kaletsky, Arthur Kroeber and Charles Gave presented their views on what a Donald Trump presidency means. Anatole outlined both positive and negative potential outcomes. On the positive side, US growth could see a boost from expansionary fiscal policy, but isolationist trade policies could threaten US firms and equity prices. Arthur warned of the geopolitical risk of a power vacuum should the US pull back from its treaty obligations....

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Arthur Kroeber: What A Trump Presidency Means

    This is an excerpt from Arthur Kroeber's presentation at Gavekal's Hong Kong seminar on November 10. In this video Arthur presents his initial thoughts on the changes in the political situation in the US, and what it means for the rest of the world.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Trump’s Bond Market Correction

    The new US leadership was always likely to inherit a bond market correction. Now, the Republicans’ clean sweep in winning control of the White House and both houses of Congress significantly increases the odds of a deep bond market sell-off. Which in turn will be likely to knock equities down a few notches.

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    India’s Banknote Bombshell

    While the world’s attention was riveted on this week’s US election, India sprang a surprise.On Tuesday Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the immediate demonetization of all existing banknotes with denominations of INR500 and INR1,000—note issues which together accounted for nearly 90% of the total currency in circulation by value.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    What A Trump Presidency Means For Global Investors

    The social and geopolitical implications of the Trump shock are much too complex and too charged with emotion for instant assessments to be worthwhile. Even in the case of ordinary presidential elections, the immediate first-day market reaction usually turns out to be wrong. I will therefore try to avoid moral judgements and confine myself largely to economic observations, dividing them into ten items of good and bad news from a strictly...

    3
Show me: results