E.g., 22-10-2017
E.g., 22-10-2017
We have found 334 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Goes Wicksellian

    Periods of structural reform in market economies are often the precursor to a phase of strong growth and equity market out-performance. The trouble is the in-between stage when the actual transformation takes place. During these phases the corporate winners of the fading era are often gasping for breath, while the emergent new players are establishing themselves through a process of Schumpeterian competition.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Easy Japan Trade Gets A Little Harder

    We stuck to our guns on Japan throughout last year, even at times when investors were clearly blinking. This was not because we thought Abenomics would solve all of the country’s problems, but simply because Japan exposure offered defined downside risks, against huge upside potential. This “asymmetry” still exists—which is why we still like Japan. But admittedly, the risk-reward profile has worsened somewhat.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C Asia: Anyone For Recoupling?

    Last year saw Asia engage in a “re-coupling” but it was the wrong type: rather than an economic recoupling that captured something of the sunnier outlook for developed markets, Asia revealed its continued dependence on financial conditions in the big centers. Asian markets (excluding China and Japan) were hammered due to their reliance on foreign capital to lubricate trade and their financial systems.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Where The Danger Lies

    Despite a somewhat improved US growth outlook, a worry remains the downward bias to consumer prices in the US and the wider world. Yesterday’s US CPI reading for November came in below expectations while core inflation in the eurozone has slid below 1%. The risk of a move into a pronounced deflation looks non-trivial, and will no doubt bear on today’s Federal Reserve decision on the future of its bond buying program.

    9
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Targets Of China's Tightening

    Higher Chinese interest rates are back, and this time it looks like they are here to stay. The People’s Bank of China drew global attention in June when it sharply forced up short-term interbank interest rates. But the central bank mishandled the episode, causing unnecessary shocks to confidence in the financial system by failing to communicate its policy intentions, and had to allow rates to retreat. Though this led many observers to question...

    8
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Asia And Tapering Fear: Get Over It

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Quarterly Strategy Chart Book - Look To Asia, Tapering Or Not

    In our previous Quarterly, we argued that investors should consider increasing their exposure to the emerging markets, and Asia in particular. The logic being that the taper tantrum sell-off in the summer was overly violent and that the valuation gap with the developed markets had grown too wide. Since then, our conviction on Asia has hardened. One reason for this is China, where a pretty decisive supply-side reform agenda has emerged in the...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Now Is The Time For Japanese Equities

    Never mind that Tokyo and Beijing look to be moving on to a war footing or that Japan’s latest trade and industrial production data was weak—the Nikkei yesterday soared to a six-year high. At the same time, the yen has resumed its slide, giving succor to those betting on domestic reflation.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Japan: Time For The Trade That Never Works

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C Asia: A Niche Exposure To Japanese Equities

    The great Japan macro-trade has stalled—what will it take to revive enthusiasm? Apparently the answer is not a strong earnings season. Of the two-thirds of Nikkei companies that have reported so far in 3Q, 62% have beaten earnings estimates by an average 16%. Excluding financials and utilities, aggregate profits have jumped 2.2x YoY for 3Q on sales growth of 13%.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Learning Japanese Patience

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    High Stakes Musical Chairs

    Coming into the last quarter of 2012, most macro hedge funds were looking at a rather mediocre year. However, with Shinzo Abe set to take office and put someone aggressively dovish like Haruhiko Kuroda at the helm of the Bank of Japan, everyone could be assured of getting a nice performance fee for the year by simply shorting the yen and going long the Nikkei. Today, the question is whether the same pattern is unfolding, but with Obama/Boehner/...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    London Seminar September 2013 - Anatole, Andrew, Joyce, Francois and Charles

    For those who missed our seminar this week in London, see below links to the audio files to listen to our five speakers, and separate links to view their presentation slides. See below in order of speaker. The audio files may take a moment to open:

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C Asia: The Deflationary Specter

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Is That A 'Third Arrow' We See?

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Mary Poppins In Japan: Abenomics Explained

    We recently dove into the mysteries of Abenomics, and concluded that the main motivation behind Japan’s suddenly aggressive macro policies is fear of fiscal collapse and eclipse by China (see Why Abenomics, Why Now?). Today we explore the details of the program and assess the likelihood that it will succeed in its aim of boosting Japan’s long-term trend growth rate to 2%, or a bit over double the rate during the two so-called “lost decades”...

    16
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The New Asian Landscape

    By now, I hope we have telegraphed our message on emerging market Asia: this is not a balance sheet crisis but a case of crumbling growth drivers. After a decade of galloping growth—with EM Asia outpacing the OECD’s real economic expansion rate by as much as 7.5pp—the growth gap with the OECD is narrowing. An easy street paved by accelerated globalization and massive Chinese investment spending is giving way to a more complex macro landscape for...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Quarterly Strategy Chart Book - The Tug Of War

    The readjustment in global bond yields over the past couple of months has increased volatility across most asset classes. Some, such as US equities, weathered the storm relatively well, while others, like emerging markets and most bond markets, did very poorly.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Gold For Japan's Confidence Game

    The Tokyo Olympics 2020 celebrations were so extensive and jubilant, that some commentators said it all seemed rather “un-Japanese.” But this is exactly what Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is looking for—a new kind of Japan. Tokyo’s hosting of the 2020 games offers much more than the limited economic boost directly attached to the Olympics: more importantly it raises the odds that Abenomics will continue to enjoy a popular mandate. This is an...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C Asia: Time For The Yield Hunt To Recommence?

    With US 10 year government bond yields stabilizing at around 3%, QE tapering expectations appear broadly priced in. As such, bargain-hunters have already returned to emerging market bonds, nudging down yields. There is still plenty of opportunity left for those who think the worst of the tapering storm has passed.

    0
Show me: results