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E.g., 17-12-2018
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    Gavekal Research

    The End Of The UK’s Haven Status

    The outcome of Thursday’s Scottish referendum is officially “too close to call”, since the difference between ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ has been inside the margin of error of almost all the polls published since the sudden swing towards independence last weekend. But markets are priced for near certainty of the status quo winning, with sterling stronger than a month ago against the euro, yen, Swiss franc and every other major currency save the dollar—and...

    4
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    Putin's Tolerable Victory

    The ceasefire in Ukraine agreed last Friday has now lasted almost a week. So far there have been no serious signs of a break-down, despite some sporadic shelling and localised attacks of the sort that undermined previous attempts to stop the fighting. Nevertheless, most media analysts and political consultants argue that this ceasefire will not hold, either because Russian president Vladimir Putin is a deceitful and ruthless monster greedy for...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Putin’s Tolerable Victory

    The ceasefire in Ukraine agreed last Friday has now lasted almost a week. So far there have been no serious signs of a break-down, despite some sporadic shelling and localised attacks of the sort that undermined previous attempts to stop the fighting. Nevertheless, most media analysts and political consultants argue that this ceasefire will not hold, either because Russian president Vladimir Putin is a deceitful and ruthless monster greedy for...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The UK Now Faces Years Of Volatility

    The probability that the United Kingdom will break apart now appears to be at least 50%. The weekend’s crop of opinion polls agree with each other, and support last Tuesday’s poll showing a powerful swing in favor of a ‘Yes’ vote in next week’s referendum on Scottish independence. Given that up until last Tuesday most investors and analysts (including me) saw no more than a 10%-20% probability of independence, what has happened in the past few...

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    Scottish Poll A 'Yes' Vote For Volatility

    Until this week almost nobody outside Scotland took very seriously the possibility that Europe’s most stable and durable nation, the only big country on earth not to have suffered invasion, revolution or civil war in the past 300 years, might soon be wiped off the map. It now seems quite conceivable, however, that the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will cease to exist within two or three years of the referendum on Scottish...

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Market Review: A Summer Series

    In late July and early August Anatole went up the mountain so to speak and penned a series of articles that aimed to explain where we were in the current market cycle, and more importantly where we are likely headed. With most major asset classes continuing to head higher we thought it worth republishing Anatole’s consolidated thinking in a single document. Please click on the pdf link above, or, alternatively, the articles can be read...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Hearing Echoes Of 1987

    In the first four articles in this series, I explained why I believe that a structural bull market in equities began in late 2012 and is likely to continue well into the next decade (see The Case For A Structural Bull Market). But bull markets do not just keep rising without interruption. Sooner or later, equity investors are certain to suffer some large and painful losses, even if I am absolutely right about the economic, monetary and...

    8
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    Gavekal Research

    A Return To Valuation-Driven Markets

    In the earlier articles in this series I argued that the medium term outlook for economic fundamentals and monetary policy is more predictable now than at any time since 2008, and possibly since the late 1990s. If I am right, then over the next year or two asset prices will no longer be driven by the economic statistics and monetary policy decisions which have dominated the post-crisis financial debate and which still obsess market and media...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Monetary Policy Is No Threat To Markets

    In the first two articles of this series, I argued that the US economy has now clearly reached ‘escape velocity’ and that, with little prospect of a renewed recession in the next year or two, investors are forgetting their earlier fears of secular stagnation and becoming increasingly confident about the extraordinary monetary and fiscal policies adopted by all the major world economies (see The Case For A Structural Bull Market and The Global...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    5C Overview: Central Banks Are Happy With Their Balance Sheet Bloat

    With the end of the US Federal Reserve’s QE3 round of quantitative easing scheduled for October, this is a good time to consider the ‘exit strategies’ central banks might follow as they think about normalizing monetary policy. While the technicalities of each country’s monetary management are different, there are two broad questions that all central banks have to answer: Can monetary policy rely solely on interest rate management, as in the pre-...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Global Obsession With US Data

    In the first article in this series, I argued that what is happening with the global economic cycle strongly influences investors beliefs’ about structural phenomena such as productivity, demographics, capital allocation and debt dynamics (see The Case For A Structural Bull Market). And while it will take many years to settle all the debates between bulls and bears about productivity or debt sustainability or zero interest rates, the cyclical...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Case For A Structural Bull Market

    It’s almost three months since I recommended a ‘Buy in May’ strategy for US equities. At roughly the same time Charles reiterated his ‘balanced portfolio’ call for a long position in US equities hedged with long-dated US treasuries. Since then both equities and bonds have performed well. The S&P 500 has risen almost 6% while 30-year US Treasury bonds have gained about 3% in price.

    8
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    Gavekal Research

    5C Overview: Shiller's Snake Oil

    Like most aspects of the investment business, valuation is more art than science, which is why anyone proposing a single formula to ‘prove’ that equities or bonds are either cheap or expensive should be treated with the deference due to a snake-oil salesman. The most popular snake-oil today is Robert Shiller’s ‘Cyclically Adjusted P/E ratio’ or CAPE.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Juncker Quid Pro Quo

    Who will be the hero of the hour, basking in universal gratitude when the EU summit culminates this evening with the appointment of Jean-Claude Juncker as President of the European Commission? Believe it or not, the man all the other leaders will be secretly thanking is David Cameron—and investors in Europe should do the same. Cameron is certain to suffer severe embarrassment this evening if he insists on forcing a vote that he is bound to lose...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    The Lesson Of Sarajevo

    Why does the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand—which lit the fuse to the First World War powder-keg 100 years ago this Saturday—still resonate so powerfully? Almost nobody believes that a Third World War is about to be triggered by the military conflicts in Ukraine or Iraq, or by the tension in the China Seas, yet there are many points of modern relevance in the catastrophe that started a century ago in Sarajevo.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Better To Be Brazilian

    What’s been the best performing asset class of the past three months? In the broadest sense, emerging market equities win this prize since it was in mid-March that the MSCI EM index began a dramatic rebound against the US and Europe. But which of the big emerging markets has done best? The surprising answer is Brazil, whose stock market gained 21% in dollar terms in the three months since March 18, narrowly beating India, up 18%, and Russia, up...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Janet Yellen, Control Engineer

    Yawn! What could be more boring than Wall Street setting a new record? This has happened in eight out of the last 15 trading sessions, and it is likely to happen many more times in the weeks and months ahead because of the one financial event that is even more boring and predictable than a Wall Street record—a presentation on US monetary policy.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    New York Seminar June 2014 - Louis, Anatole & Andrew

    We held our summer seminar in New York on June 10, with Anatole, Louis and Andrew offering their take on the state of the world economy and financial markets. We were also joined by Henrik Christensen who is director of Robotics at Georgia Tech. Audio recordings of their discussions are available below:

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    An Uber Bubble Awaits

    Last week was clearly an important one for financial markets and the world economy. Friday’s US payroll data confirmed that all the jobs lost since 2008 have been restored. The European Central Bank overcame the opposition of the Bundesbank and joined the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and Bank of England in the ranks of growth-oriented central banks that are willing to whatever is necessary to pump up inflation and nominal GDP. And peace talks...

    13
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    Gavekal Research

    A Grandmaster At Work

    “Check-mate”. As Vladimir Putin signed Russia’s historic US$400bn gas-supply agreement with China, he must have felt the satisfaction of a chess grandmaster revealing the inexorable outcome of a complicated endgame. In theory, the next phase of the chess game between Russia and the West in Ukraine will only begin with the Ukrainian presidential election on Sunday, but Putin’s positioning of the pieces means the outcome is preordained, whoever...

    1
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