E.g., 23-09-2018
E.g., 23-09-2018
We have found 664 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    How Corbynomics Could Work

    Whatever you may think of Jeremy Corbyn, he has a point about economic policy. Actually he has two good points and one bad one. Corbyn has been right about what he called People’s Quantitative Easing, a potentially transformative idea for restoring economic prosperity that was proposed years ago by several radical economists but had never been taken seriously in Britain until it became the centerpiece of Corbynomics. Corbyn has also been right...

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Gavekal Monthly: Opportunity Amid Crisis

    Today we launch a new publication, The Gavekal Monthly, which presents our latest investment recommendations, as well as a handy summary of our main views across all economies and markets. Think of it as a snapshot of the collective Gavekal brain. In this issue you'll find: "Opportunity Amid Crisis": Louis's assessment of the current investment environment, with ideas on how best to position your portfolios. Three...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Real Message From Oil

    Violent swings in oil prices are destabilizing economies and financial markets worldwide. When the oil price halved last year, from US$110 to US$55 a barrel, the cause was obvious: Saudi Arabia’s decision to increase its share of the global oil market by expanding production. But what accounts for the further plunge in oil prices in the last few weeks—to lows last seen in the immediate aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis—and how will...

    18
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Long Live US Productivity Growth!

    The contrast between last Friday’s strong US employment report and the very pedestrian GDP figures published three days earlier draws renewed attention to the greatest paradox of the post-2008 economic recovery. GDP growth since 2008 has indicated the weakest cyclical expansion on record, but employment growth has been roughly as strong as usual, at least in the US and Britain. Post-crisis US employment has grown fairly steadily at a rate of 1.5...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Stop Worrying And Learn To Love Cheap Oil

    In almost every financial cycle there comes a point when the publicly expressed views of analysts and investors diverge completely from market behavior. Occasionally this can be what George Soros has called a moment of truth, when investors suddenly realize that a financial boom has wildly overshot economic fundamentals and is about to turn to bust. But often it turns out that the markets have grasped a message that has not yet been consciously...

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Good News From Greece

    Greece has reopened its banks, paid its dues to the European Central Bank and cleared its arrears with the International Monetary Fund. After five years of pan-European economic depression and the near-death experience in Greece this month, can we finally say that the euro crisis is over? The conventional answer is definitely not. According to the vast majority of political commentators and economists, ranging from left-wing Keynesians such as...

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The New Iranian Revolution

    Yesterday’s deal to lift economic sanctions against Iran is an event of immense importance, whose reverberations will be felt around the world for decades to come. No one can predict with any confidence the effects of Iran’s re-emergence as a dominant regional power on nuclear proliferation, the security of Israel or the conflict between Sunni and Shia Islam. But one consequence does seem certain: oil prices will continue to move lower for...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Osborne’s Budget: Good For The UK, Bad for UK Assets

    After May’s surprise election victory for David Cameron’s Tories—which proved yet again that Britain is a naturally conservative country— expectations were running high for the first truly Conservative budget in the UK for almost 20 years. Yesterday, George Osborne duly delivered an impressive relaunch of British conservatism for the 21st century, in a speech self-consciously modeled on Benjamin Disraeli’s famous “One Nation” budget speeches,...

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Eurozone Is Not On The Brink

    When totally wrong-footed by an astonishing event that embarrassingly contradicts one’s expectations, it is tempting to seek refuge in high-flown metaphors and literary allusions, especially if this embarrassing turn of events happens in Greece. But rather than distracting attention with references to Pyrrhic Victories, Siren Voices and Labours of Hercules, let me get straight to the point and admit that my predictions about the Greek referendum...

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Greferendum And The Markets

    Contrary to most of this morning’s headlines, the astonishing weekend events in Greece will almost certainly prove bullish for risk assets around the world and especially in Europe. The European market mayhem triggered by Alexis Tsipras’ bizarre referendum announcement (which Greek officials only found out about through Twitter in the midst of a negotiating session with the Troika in Brussels) seems reminiscent of the panics about US politics...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Greek Default Would Trigger Regime Change, Not Grexit

    As Greece moves inexorably towards default, the big news from the markets is not contagion but the opposite—the remarkable lack of response in the euro exchange rate ($1.125 today compared to $1.123 the day before January’s Greek election) and sovereign bond spreads in the Club Med (BTP-bund spread today is 150bp, against 120bp on January 23). Is this just a case of investor complacency and wishful thinking, like the period prior to Lehman? Or...

    16
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    From Farce To Irrelevance

    The good news is that a Greek default, which has become more likely after Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ provocative rejection of what he described as the “absurd” bailout offer by Greece’s creditors, no longer poses a serious threat to the rest of Europe. The bad news is that Tsipras does not seem to understand this. To judge by Tsipras’ belligerence, he firmly believes that Europe needs Greece as desperately as Greece needs Europe. This is the...

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Oil At Its Ceiling, Not Floor

    With oil prices rebounding strongly this week, despite the non-event of last Friday’s meeting of the Organization Of Petroleum Exporting Countries, it seems appropriate to re-examine the case for cheaper oil that we have been presenting since late last year. Specifically, our view in December that US$50/bbl was more likely to be a ceiling than a floor for the Brent oil price in the long term has been contradicted by market actions of recent...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Death Throes Of The Bond Bubble

    What should we conclude from the jump in bond yields that has transfixed investors in every market around the world since late April, when a disappointing German auction started the sudden rout? The simplest answer, and probably the best one, is “not much”. Like the US taper tantrum of May 2013 and the brief bump in Japanese bond yields a few months earlier, when the Bank of Japan got serious about quantitative easing, the present market...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Greeks Inch Toward Surrender

    The Greek situation rumbles on without resolution after a weekend that saw more posturing, but no deal between Athens and the Brussels group. The message from European Union leaders is that Greece must bow, and while Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras remains defiant, it was noteworthy that his interior minister indicated a willingness to cede ground on Syriza’s anti-austerity program. As this messy endgame plays out, the question facing jaded...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C Overview: Regime Change In The Oil Market Only Just Starting

    Since late last year, when the battle for oil market share broke out between OPEC and the US frackers, we have argued that this is not just a contest between rival groups of producers, but between distinct pricing regimes, based on very different economic principles (see Will US$50 Be Oil’s Floor, Or Its Ceiling? and The Macro Dividend From Oil).

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    New York Seminar May 2015 - Anatole, Louis, Joyce & Will

    We held our US spring seminar in New York on May 11, with Anatole, Louis, Joyce & Will offering their views on the most important developments in the global economy.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The UK Drama Has Only Just Started

    Although the Tory victory came as a huge surprise, it changes very little about the UK's economic or financial prospects. In that sense the absence of any big reaction in the financial markets is understandable. The pound and the stock market would have fallen steeply in the event of a “hung parliament”—and, certainly, that is the outcome I expected (see The UK Cliffhanger). But now that the prospect of domestic political instability has...

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The UK Cliffhanger

    Conventional assumptions about British elections say that the incumbent party of government generally enjoys a swing of one or two percentage points in the final period of campaigning. Like most electorates, once all the shouting is done, British voters typically focus on livelihood issues and tend toward “the devil they know”. In recent days the Conservative Party has seen the opinion polls move slightly in their favor, but nothing so...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Starving The Greeks Out

    After Friday’s near-total breakdown in the negotiations between Greece and the eurozone, it is clear that both sides need a Plan B. In the case of Greece the alternative to a negotiated solution has always been clear. It is to default on its debts to other European governments, thereby presenting those nations with a stark alternative: either expel Greece from the euro and risk contagion to Portugal, Spain and Italy, or offer Greece the money it...

    12
Show me: results