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    Gavekal Research

    Eastern Europe's Convergence

    Investors are still forlornly awaiting a recovery in southern Europe, but in the eastern part of the continent, things are jumping. Well, relatively so anyway, with Eastern Europe’s larger economies seeing a much snappier revival of industrial activity than elsewhere. This discrepancy in economic performance is a reminder of southern Europe’s hopeless bind when it comes to competitiveness. Countries like Greece and Portugal may be in the same...

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    Latam’s Free Marketers

    Outside of peripheral Europe and a handful of city states, Northeast Asia is the only region where rural backwaters have managed to develop into fully industrialized economies. For the most part, this ‘miracle’ was not achieved using the standard Washington prescription of open markets, liberalized financial systems and political pluralism. Indeed, rarely has the development nostrums promoted by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Foothills Of Banking Union

    This month the European Central Bank embarks on what is being billed as a comprehensive stress test of the eurozone’s banking system. The year-long exercise is necessary to rebuild credibility in the banking supervisory regime after past tests were derided for their lack of stress. This is the first phase of a two-step process which should ultimately progress toward some form of banking union. But the immediate worry for investors is whether...

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    Gavekal Research

    Australia's Next Era

    Australia’s doomsayers love to focus on high foreign liabilities and household debt ratios, calling up the ghosts of America’s housing bust and emerging market sudden stops. Such risks are heavily overstated. With the opposition conservative coalition expected to win tomorrow’s national election, the new government’s greatest challenge will be to reverse a 15 year trend of deteriorating productivity growth and position Australia as a prime high-...

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