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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Boring Infrastructure Bank

    The creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank promised to reshape the world’s economic architecture, and greatly worried the US. Yet now that the AIIB is a reality, it is not challenging the existing Bretton Woods institutions. It is on course to resemble them—and cooperate with them. In fact, the AIIB has become just a bit boring.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Migrant Housing Solution

    In hundreds of smaller cities around China, rows of apartment blocks lie unsold. Can this inventory ever be absorbed? The government hopes migrant workers, long too poor to urban property, will be part of the solution. On a recent trip to southwest China, I did find signs that migrants are becoming a factor at the low end of the housing market.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The End Of The Migrant Miracle?

    China’s growth has long been driven by the shift of millions of people from low-paid farm work to better urban jobs. But latest survey of migrant workers shows the flood of rural labor slowing to a trickle. So is the migrant miracle ending? Not quite. Slower economic growth is curbing migration, but other causes of the slowdown are more benign.

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    Gavekal Research

    Why India Can Move Faster

    India’s lack of efficient roads and railways lowers productivity, depresses aggregate demand, raises costs and stymies trade—all impediments to economic growth. The good news is that India’s latest infrastructure push, financed initially by public investment, is showing signs of traction. The latest government budget committed a hefty US$32bn to roads, rail and other infrastructure, a big increase within a broader environment of fiscal...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2016 - The End Of Non-Interference

    China’s Strong Arm: Protecting Citizens and Assets Abroad by Jonas Parello-Plesner and Mathieu Duchâtel (International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2015)

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: Avoiding The Japan Trap

    Growth is slowing, debt is rising, and the government is openly talking about "zombie companies" in key industries. This is China today, but there are also echoes of 1990s Japan. This issue of the CEQ examines the similarities and differences, and handicaps China’s chances of dodging a Japanese scenario of low-growth, high-debt stagnation.

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    Gavekal Research

    Bridging India’s Financing Gap

    India’s shoddy infrastructure is the stuff of legend. Ranked 87th in the World Economic Forum’s infrastructure quality index, much of it would not look out of place in sub-Saharan Africa. Mumbai’s rickety old airport, famous for its frequent delays and scuttling rats, once told visitors everything they needed to know. Yet the city’s sleek and airy new terminal presents a fresh image: five times bigger than the old airport, it is clean, efficient...

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: On India's Growth

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    Gavekal Research

    Two Cheers For India

    The end of China’s investment boom means the global economy is seeking a new driver of growth. India’s economy outpaced China’s last year, making it the world’s fastest-growing large economy. Tom and Udith analyze what India must do to fulfill its potential

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Chinese Dream (I): The Empire Strikes Back

    Xi Jinping’s project of national rejuvenation needs to be taken seriously, with an understanding of the history from which it springs.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Chinese Dream (II): Great Leap Outward Along The New Silk Road

    The Belt-and-Road Initiative promises an infrastructure bonanza for Asia’s least-connected regions. How much it will extend China’s political influence is an open question.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Chinese Dream (III): Should We Fear It?

    As a ‘peace-loving’ China flaunts its military, political and economic might, Asia and the US puzzle over how to respond.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: China Reshapes Asia

    In the last two years China has made a bold push to expand its influence in Asia, using both the carrot of well-funded infrastructure diplomacy and the stick of forceful assertion of territorial claims in the South and East China Seas. What explains this newly assertive foreign policy, and what are its effects likely to be? This special issue of the China Economic Quarterly tries to answer these questions.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    For Beijing, It’s Goodnight Vietnam

    Vietnam recently scrapped foreign ownership caps across a swathe of industries as a spur to its stalled program to privatize state-owned enterprises. It has signed up to the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership, a US-led attempt to boost trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific, and is pursuing a free trade agreement with the EU. Liberal-minded Vietnamese are hopeful that the reformist prime minister, Nguyen Tan Dung, will take over as Communist...

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    Gavekal Research

    For Beijing, It’s Goodnight Vietnam

    Vietnam recently scrapped foreign ownership caps across a swathe of industries as a spur to its stalled program to privatize state-owned enterprises. It has signed up to the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership, a US-led attempt to boost trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific, and is pursuing a free trade agreement with the EU. Liberal-minded Vietnamese are hopeful that the reformist prime minister, Nguyen Tan Dung, will take over as Communist...

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    Gavekal Research

    Asia’s Infrastructure Arms Race

    In what finance minister Lou Jiwei called a “win-win for Asia,” China yesterday launched the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in a signing ceremony in Beijing. The AIIB will promote connectivity and common development across Asia, but China is the leading shareholder and will be able to veto major decisions. The AIIB “represents an important move on the part of China to fulfill its growing international responsibilities, and to improve and...

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    Gavekal Research

    Still A Lonely Power

    China, the political scientist David Shambaugh declared last year, is a “lonely power”—lacking close friends and possessing no allies. That is something that Xi Jinping’s “proactive” foreign policy aims to change. His New Silk Road vision—now officially termed the “Belt and Road Initiative”—is to forge a “community of shared destiny,” in which Asia’s prosperity is tied to China’s rise. Rather than building formal alliances, Beijing’s goal is to...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Youku Tudou: Watch With Care

    Youku leads in China’s raucous online video market, but will struggle to stay independent thanks to government censorship and a business model combining the worst aspects of YouTube and Netflix.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: The Chinese Company

    In this special issue of the CEQ focusing on the Chinese company, Matthew Forney lays out the rules of the road for investing in China, and how avoid getting caught by the stereotypes of Chinese companies entrepreneurial miracles or fraud-ridden freak shows. Five profiles offer bottom-up lessons on how Chinese companies work.

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    Gavekal Research

    Maritime Silk Road Or “String Of Pearls”?

    China’s strategic expansion into the Indian Ocean is causing jitters in both Washington and Delhi. This week Xi Jinping pledged to finance a whopping US$46bn of investments in Pakistan, a large chunk of which will fund a 3,000km “economic corridor” from the Arabian Sea to northwest China. The route will begin at Gwadar, a Chinese-run port near the Iranian border, which Indian security experts fear will become a strategic base for the Chinese...

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