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E.g., 28-03-2017
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Picking Apart The Iron Ore Conundrum

    Is China’s continued rally in iron ore prices the result of benign structural change in the steel sector, or frenzied financial speculation? Rosealea and Arthur review the competing explanations, and find both have some merit. So while a lot has to go right to avoid an ore price crash, this correction could still take a while to materialize.

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Is It Finally Time For The Property Tax?

    After more than a decade of debate, could China finally be ready to start imposing a property tax? In this piece, Rosealea argues that political will and technical preparations point to progress toward a tax in 2017. While some fear the impact on prices, the gradual rollout of a narrowly focused tax should be mostly a non-event for markets.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Half-Hearted Battle Against Air Pollution

    The return of severe smog to northern China since December has frightened families and raised more doubts about the government’s declared “war” on air pollution. So is the government losing the war? Or are they not even fighting it in the first place? In this piece, Rosealea explains the political and economic realities of air pollution in China.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Five Macro Questions For 2017

    For our first China research piece of the new year, we offer a guide to the economic outlook in the form of short answers to some big questions: Will China be as boring as consensus forecast imply? Will the central bank hike interest rates? Will the housing market correct sharply? Will it be a good year for Chinese equities? Will the labor market hold up?

    7
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    How Not To Control Coal Prices

    The price of coal has been on a wild ride recently—and the volatility is not over yet. China’s government spent much of 2016 trying to push the coal price up, but the ensuing price surge now has them backpedaling and trying to push prices down again. There is a real risk these interventions will cause prices to overshoot on the downside in 2017.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Nearing The End Of The Last Housing Boom?

    In 2016, China had its strongest housing market upturn since the global financial crisis. Driven by policy and debt, this surge is unlikely to continue through next year. Fundamental demand has peaked and the government wants to keep prices in check.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: Xi Jinping’s China

    2017 will be a very political year for China. The short-term priority is a smooth economic run-up to the Communist Party Congress, when Xi Jinping will strengthen his grip on power. In the long term, questions are growing as to whether the Party is flexible enough to govern a dynamic society. This issue of CEQ assesses China’s political future.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Making Sense Of The Housing-Commodity Nexus

    Early sales data confirm that China’s property cycle took another step down in November. Yet no one seems to have told the commodity markets: even as property sales have cooled off, prices have heated up, with domestic futures for steel, copper, and coal jumping 20-40% in November. In this piece, Rosealea explains how to read these mixed signals.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Permanent Surplus Of Power

    China’s excess supply of coal-fired electricity is now more extreme than ever—and is only getting worse. This huge misallocation of resources was caused by policies that tried to restrain demand for power, but ended up encouraging its supply. As a result, electricity rates are falling, but not quickly or substantially enough to fix the problem.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Gavekal Monthly: Deflation Ends; What Next?

    The biggest market move of the past month was a significant rise in bond yields across the US and Europe. Much commentary has suggested that this might be a symptom of a sustained rise in inflationary pressures, as wages and rents start to push up prices in the US, and Chinese producer prices end four long years spent in negative territory. We are skeptical. The recent rise in yields has so far reversed only half of the decline in the first half...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The New Reality Of Housing Prices

    The wild ride of Chinese housing prices is a sign of how the housing market has become more speculative and policy-driven as fundamental demand has peaked. Policies intended to help small cities have only made prices in the largest cities frothier. Rosealea thinks this policy-driven volatility in prices will continue even as the cycle turns down.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Andrew Batson: What Next For Chinese Growth?

    Chinese policymakers are set on maintaining economic stability ahead of a crucial Communist Party meeting next year—but while that means stabilizing growth it also means pushing back against a property bubble. In this video interview, Andrew assesses the tactical trade-offs that must be made in support of the strategy of stability.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Housing & Construction Review 2016

    In the latest edition of our annual overview of housing and construction in China, Rosealea summarizes the short- and long-term outlook for these key economic drivers. This concise chartbook provides 2017 forecasts for major indicators, and covers topics such as changes in housing policy, structural trends in demand, and the state of inventories.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The August Heat Won't Last

    China’s property-and-commodity complex got pretty hot over the summer: in August housing sales picked up, investment recovered a bit, and commodity prices jumped. Does this mean a new growth rally is beginning as the government renews stimulus? No—the housing market is still cooling. But Beijing is also far from a real tightening of policy.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Other Property Inventory Problem Is Even Bigger

    China’s inventories of unsold housing have been declared a national problem—but officials should spare a moment for the even larger overhang in the non-residential property market. While the irrational exuberance toward commercial and office construction is finally fading, they will be a drag on construction growth for the foreseeable future.

    4
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Housing Takes A Breather; More Stress On The Way

    July was a weak month for China’s economy, as investment, industrial production and retail sales all slowed. An important exception was the property market, where sales ticked up and buyer sentiment seems strong. Nonetheless, housing activity will continue to slow over the rest of the year, if at a gentler pace than the plunge in May and June.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Iron Ore’s Battle Of Attrition Is Over

    China’s iron ore imports jumped in early 2016, finally validating global mining companies’ strategy to gain market share. As low prices continue to force domestic mines to close, iron ore imports still have a few quarters of growth ahead. But with import penetration already over 80%, there is not much market share left for global miners to grab.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Mixed Progress On Excess Capacity

    Domestic coal output has declined sharply this year, but steel production has been flat. This pattern reinforces the point that excess capacity only shuts when forced to by low prices—and steel prices were high because of the stimulus. While both excess capacity sectors will continue to contract, trade tensions are unlikely to vanish quickly.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Natural Gas Glut

    China’s natural gas demand is likely to rise by 7-9% annually for the rest of the decade, half the 15% pace of 2003-14. That is still a pretty decent pace of growth—but well below what the government planned for. Having signed contracts and built pipelines on the basis of ambitious forecasts, China’s challenge is now dealing with a glut of gas.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: The State Sector’s New Clothes

    In this issue of the CEQ, we take a close look at state-owned enterprises, which lie at the heart of Xi Jinping's strategy for restoring China to greatness. The goal of Xi’s recent policies is clear: to strengthen SOEs and make them more effective instruments of macro management at home, and more powerful agents of national interests abroad.

    0
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