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E.g., 18-08-2017
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Oil Import Deregulation Put On Hold

    China’s market for gasoline, diesel and other oil products has gotten increasingly competitive since the government started allowing private-sector refiners to import their own crude oil. But the government has now put additional liberalization on hold, which will halt gains for independent refiners and benefit big state enterprises.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Fade The Latest Commodity Rally

    China’s property market is once again running hotter than expected, pushing prices of iron, steel and coal up by 15%-40% over recent weeks. But the gradual downward trend in property has not changed. And with high prices and government intervention both stimulating more commodity supply, the potential for further price gains is limited.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Government Becomes A Home Buyer

    It’s no secret that managing the housing market is a core part of China’s economic policy. But as Rosealea explains in this piece, government’s role in supporting housing sales is now even greater than most realize. The government is buying millions of unsold housing units directly from developers, and the scale of the program is only increasing.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Central Pillar For Housing Sales

    China’s housing market is proving quite resilient this year, with sales growth perking up in May. In this piece, Rosealea argues the current sales recovery is broad-based: growth is strong in both central and coastal provinces. While restrictions on speculative purchases are spreading to some smaller cities, this should have only a moderate impact.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Iron Ore Slump Nears Its End

    China’s iron ore price is now down by about a third from its peak in February. In this piece, Rosealea reassesses the market in light of this correction, and argues that the price is unlikely to stay substantially below US$60 per ton for long. That’s because domestic miners responding to low prices by cutting output, helping rebalance the market.

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Return Of Regulated Coal Prices

    Coal was the most volatile commodity price in China last year, but it has been remarkably stable in 2017. In this piece, Rosealea explains how the government has revived a contract system of regulating coal prices, in the place of campaigns to cut or raise coal output. Coal prices are thus likely to stay at their relatively high levels for longer.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    How Long Can The Construction Rebound Last?

    Chinese growth prospects look quite good in 2017, thanks to the recovery in construction, but how long can it last? In this piece, Rosealea unpacks the inventory dynamics behind the rebound. Given the strong start to 2017, it now looks like low inventories can support growth in construction not just in 2017, but also well into 2018.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Shaky Foundation For Iron Ore

    Iron ore prices are still high, but for how much longer? Returning from a field trip, Rosealea is now more convinced prices will fall. A government campaign to close low-end steel producers is aggravating cyclical swings rather than changing the structure of the industry. As supply is now rising to meet demand, prices will come under pressure.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Picking Apart The Iron Ore Conundrum

    Is China’s continued rally in iron ore prices the result of benign structural change in the steel sector, or frenzied financial speculation? Rosealea and Arthur review the competing explanations, and find both have some merit. So while a lot has to go right to avoid an ore price crash, this correction could still take a while to materialize.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Is It Finally Time For The Property Tax?

    After more than a decade of debate, could China finally be ready to start imposing a property tax? In this piece, Rosealea argues that political will and technical preparations point to progress toward a tax in 2017. While some fear the impact on prices, the gradual rollout of a narrowly focused tax should be mostly a non-event for markets.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Half-Hearted Battle Against Air Pollution

    The return of severe smog to northern China since December has frightened families and raised more doubts about the government’s declared “war” on air pollution. So is the government losing the war? Or are they not even fighting it in the first place? In this piece, Rosealea explains the political and economic realities of air pollution in China.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Five Macro Questions For 2017

    For our first China research piece of the new year, we offer a guide to the economic outlook in the form of short answers to some big questions: Will China be as boring as consensus forecast imply? Will the central bank hike interest rates? Will the housing market correct sharply? Will it be a good year for Chinese equities? Will the labor market hold up?

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    How Not To Control Coal Prices

    The price of coal has been on a wild ride recently—and the volatility is not over yet. China’s government spent much of 2016 trying to push the coal price up, but the ensuing price surge now has them backpedaling and trying to push prices down again. There is a real risk these interventions will cause prices to overshoot on the downside in 2017.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Nearing The End Of The Last Housing Boom?

    In 2016, China had its strongest housing market upturn since the global financial crisis. Driven by policy and debt, this surge is unlikely to continue through next year. Fundamental demand has peaked and the government wants to keep prices in check.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: Xi Jinping’s China

    2017 will be a very political year for China. The short-term priority is a smooth economic run-up to the Communist Party Congress, when Xi Jinping will strengthen his grip on power. In the long term, questions are growing as to whether the Party is flexible enough to govern a dynamic society. This issue of CEQ assesses China’s political future.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Making Sense Of The Housing-Commodity Nexus

    Early sales data confirm that China’s property cycle took another step down in November. Yet no one seems to have told the commodity markets: even as property sales have cooled off, prices have heated up, with domestic futures for steel, copper, and coal jumping 20-40% in November. In this piece, Rosealea explains how to read these mixed signals.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Permanent Surplus Of Power

    China’s excess supply of coal-fired electricity is now more extreme than ever—and is only getting worse. This huge misallocation of resources was caused by policies that tried to restrain demand for power, but ended up encouraging its supply. As a result, electricity rates are falling, but not quickly or substantially enough to fix the problem.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Gavekal Monthly: Deflation Ends; What Next?

    The biggest market move of the past month was a significant rise in bond yields across the US and Europe. Much commentary has suggested that this might be a symptom of a sustained rise in inflationary pressures, as wages and rents start to push up prices in the US, and Chinese producer prices end four long years spent in negative territory. We are skeptical. The recent rise in yields has so far reversed only half of the decline in the first half...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The New Reality Of Housing Prices

    The wild ride of Chinese housing prices is a sign of how the housing market has become more speculative and policy-driven as fundamental demand has peaked. Policies intended to help small cities have only made prices in the largest cities frothier. Rosealea thinks this policy-driven volatility in prices will continue even as the cycle turns down.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Andrew Batson: What Next For Chinese Growth?

    Chinese policymakers are set on maintaining economic stability ahead of a crucial Communist Party meeting next year—but while that means stabilizing growth it also means pushing back against a property bubble. In this video interview, Andrew assesses the tactical trade-offs that must be made in support of the strategy of stability.

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