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    Gavekal Research

    Mapping China’s Asian Dream

    China’s effort to build a regional sphere of influence is upending Asian geopolitics and through huge infrastructure building, quite literally changing the geography. As such, China’s pursuit of empire is an epochal undertaken which investors need to properly factor into their macro understanding of the region. This is why Gavekal’s Tom Miller wrote a book on the topic and as Louis explains in this piece, it is a tome he really wanted to write...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Drawing Meaning From 2016, And A Roadmap For 2017

    Having experienced a rough 2016, the temptation for most investors is to clean the slate and start again. Unfortunately, life in financial markets does not allow for such neat endings. In one of his biggest reports in years, Louis argues that after such a complex and tumultuous year, it is essential for investors to draw a breath and derive some understanding of what just happened. Only then should they try to sketch out future scenarios.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Polls, Big Data And The French Primary

    It’s been said that big data is like carnal knowledge in teenage boys’ locker rooms: everyone talks about it, but noone really knows much about it. A slew of election results in the last few years supports such a viewpoint, for in an age when everything can supposedly be measured, political forecasts have been proven hugely flawed—the UK general election in 2015, the Brexit vote, the Colombian peace-process referendum, Donald Trump winning the...

    8
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    Gavekal Research

    Making America Great Again

    Markets have been sending contradictory signals since the US political equation changed radically 10 days ago. In this piece, Louis seeks to unscramble the mixed messages as he tries to feel his way into the new investment environment.

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    Debate: A Trump Win And The Dollar

    As the world seriously tunes into the US presidential election, four Gavekal partners debate the outlook for the US dollar should Donald Trump emerge victorious and set about his promised remaking of the international security order and global trading system.

    25
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    Gavekal Research

    What Does China’s Propaganda Ministry Do All Day?

    When asked to speak about China at big investment conferences, I often kick-off by asking the audience “who here trusts Chinese data?” When no one raises their hand, my follow-up is generally “OK: 0 out of 250! That’s more than usual”. Beyond getting a cheap laugh, the point is to highlight how most foreign investors are suspicious, and often downright fearful, of China. Such distrust may stem from China being one of the few major economies to...

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  • Gavekal Research

    The Challenge For Equity Markets

    Given high valuations and a rock bottom risk-free rate, it is hard to see US equities moving higher without a pick-up in corporate earnings. Yet with the strong US dollar hurting exporters and domestic economic data coming in weak, US-based firms may struggle to deliver.

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  • Gavekal Research

    NIRP: Machiavellian Design Or A Policy Mistake?

    In order to make money, Starbucks has little choice but to sell coffee. Ford must sell cars if it hopes to stay open. And Lockheed Martin better get orders for bombs, missiles and planes if it is to remain relevant. But banks do not need to make loans (their stated purpose) in order to make payrolls and pay shareholders a dividend, at least at certain points in the cycle. When the yield curve is steep, banks can borrow money cheaply at the...

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  • Gavekal Research

    Red Herrings, Margin Calls And Heart Attacks

    Most recent commentary we have read suggests that January’s turmoil can be blamed on either the slowdown in China or the fear of an impending US recession. But let us suggest an alternative: these are red herrings which only distract from the real analytical challenges faced by investors.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    The Debate Over Renminbi Policy

    One of the core tenets of Gavekal’s philosophy is that we embrace open debate. Rather than concealing the diversity of our analysis beneath a single suffocating “house view”, we strongly believe that conducting our —often animated—discussions about the big topics of the day out in the open adds value for our readers. And few of our recent debates have been as lively as the one over Beijing’s renminbi policy. Joyce’s view is that the Chinese...

    10
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    Gavekal Research

    A Happy Apologist

    At Gavekal the conversation with clients never stops and from time to time we like to offer up a taste of debates that strike us as interesting. Louis got into just such a discussion earlier this week with one of our smarter, free-market embracing US clients. The topic of discussion was China and why Louis is such an apologist for the Chinese Communist Party when he clearly has little time for governments meddling with markets elsewhere?

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Is The Bull Market Over? (II)

    Yesterday we examined the three big fears that—in the absence of any markedly negative news from the OECD economies—lie behind the recent equity market sell-off, and which have prompted many investors to ask “Is The Bull Market Over?”

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Is The Bull Market Over? (I)

    Is the bull market in equities over? As our readers might imagine, this is a question we have been asked more than once over the past few weeks. Notwithstanding the bounce of the last two days, the simple fact that clients are wondering about the answer is troubling in itself. Their doubts are embodied by three ominous developments:

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Not A People’s Republic-An Empire

    We often say that money managers are not paid to forecast, but to adapt. The challenge, of course, is knowing what to adapt to. For example, an investor picking up a copy of today’s Financial Times will be left scratching his head over the importance of the Greek crisis to the future of the eurozone, the likely impact of coming US Federal Reserve rate hikes, and how the deepening oil supply glut will affect global markets. In our latest...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Markets From China, Media Commentary From Uranus

    At one point in the movie Uranus, the central character played by Gérard Depardieu exclaims: “I am a bar-owner, a Communist Party member and a Freemason. That should tell you how much BS I have heard in my life... But this takes the cake!”. This is a little bit how we feel looking at all the ink that has been spilt over the recent collapse in Chinese equities. So to recap the most important points:

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Chinese Equity Demand And The Acceleration Phenomenon

    More than any other major stock market, Shanghai is driven by flows from domestic retail investors. And obviously, in the past couple of weeks, many of these retail investors have decided to head for the exits (the Shanghai Composite Index has plunged -22% from its early June high). Of course, this drop only brought Shanghai back to where the index stood in mid-April; but why the sudden rush for the door? Have the drivers of retail sentiment...

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    The Crocodile Mouth About To Close

    What is the most significant macro event thus far in 2015? Most of our clients would likely answer the collapse in oil prices. Or perhaps the European quantitative easing program and the fall of the euro. Others, more bearishly inclined, may highlight the relentless and tedious process towards Grexit, the underwhelming US macro data or the devastating Middle-Eastern civil war. These are all perfectly valid answers—in fact, we made a number of...

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    Gavekal Research

    China Update: A Rare Bond Market Bright Spot

    The rule of thumb in all of our fixed income models used to be that the nominal yield on ten-year government bonds for a given country should be equal to the country’s ten-year average inflation rate plus the structural real growth rate of its gross domestic product (i.e. demographic growth + productivity gains). So, for example, if the US were to see 2% GDP growth (1.2% productivity gains and 0.8% demographic growth) and 2% inflation, then the...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Our Holiday Reading List

    For the third year we are publishing a year-end books round-up. The topics covered by the 17 books in our compendium include hardy Gavekal perennials such as economics, politics and the effect of technological transformation on modern life. In addition Charles considers ancient Rome’s decline due to its apparent embrace of socialism over liberalism. Louis kicks us off with a look at the roots of our most basic human urges.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Burning Questions For 2015

    With two reports a day, and often more, readers sometimes complain that keeping tabs on the thoughts of the various Gavekal analysts can be a challenge. So as the year draws to a close, it may be helpful if we recap the main questions confronting investors and the themes we strongly believe in, region by region.

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