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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Brace For US-China Trade Conflict

    Is Donald Trump backing down from his threat to get tough on China trade? It might seem so: after three weeks of rapid policy moves, his promised anti-China trade action is still missing. But it will not stay missing for long. Some US move against China trade looks inevitable in coming months, though the costs will be high and the benefits unclear.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research January Call

    Charles Gave argued that Donald Trump’s protectionist policy could lead to a breakdown of the post-1971 fiat money system that is based on a US dollar standard. Will Denyer deconstructed the likely workings of a new trade taxation regime in the US and explained what that means for currencies. Arthur Kroeber outlined the likely Chinese response to a US trade broadside and argued that Beijing was decently well placed to weather the attack.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: A Coming US-China Trade War?

    In this video interview Arthur explains how a US-China trade war may play out and the implication for capital outflows from China

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Dissonance In US-China Relations

    Once Donald Trump occupies the White House he is sure to take aim at China in the form of new tariffs, anti-dumping actions and the labeling of the country as a currency manipulator. What is unclear is whether such actions reflect a tough negotiating stance, or instead a fundamental shift in the strategic equation. In this video interview, Arthur explains why the mixed messages coming out of Washington have the potential to spark a dangerous...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Trump's China Choice: Trade War Or New Deal?

    Once Donald Trump occupies the White House he is sure to launch salvos at China in the form of new tariffs, anti-dumping actions and the labeling of China as a currency manipulator. It is tough to predict exactly what these actions will entail going forward. What is certain is that the long-running US consensus on how to handle China has broken down.

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Can Stability Maintenance Survive Trump?

    To meet the needs of their own political cycle, Chinese leaders will aim to ensure steady economic growth for the next year. Unfortunately, it seems that the political need of US president-elect Donald Trump is to cause as much disruption for China as possible.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Enigma Of Chinese Power

    Arthur reviews four books that explain why the Communist Party has been so successful, what could bring it down, and Xi Jinping’s strategy for keeping it alive.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: Xi Jinping’s China

    2017 will be a very political year for China. The short-term priority is a smooth economic run-up to the Communist Party Congress, when Xi Jinping will strengthen his grip on power. In the long term, questions are growing as to whether the Party is flexible enough to govern a dynamic society. This issue of CEQ assesses China’s political future.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Gavekal Monthly: Preparing For The Trumped-Up Economy

    Markets have been on a startling trajectory since Donald Trump upended investors’ assumptions with his win in the US presidential election. In this issue of the Monthly two Gavekal partners ask whether the macro environment really has fundamentally shifted due to the emerging policy platform of the president-elect.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Arthur Kroeber: A New Era Of Sino-US Relations

    While Donald Trump has threatened to slap huge tariffs on Chinese exports, Arthur thinks this would be an act of self-harm given the economic co-dependence between China and the US. In this video interview, he maps out the likely evolution of relations between the two countries in the years ahead.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Advantage Shifts To China

    Donald Trump’s victory was also a victory for Xi Jinping. Trump’s more isolationist stance and transactional attitude hands the edge to China in the battle for influence in Asia. Trump’s threats of economic warfare with China are also mostly empty; if anything, Beijing has gained a bit of advantage in its bilateral ties with the US.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    A Very Chinese Reshuffle

    The forces of market-oriented economic reform in China seemed to take a hit yesterday when it was announced that the tough-talking finance minister Lou Jiwei was stepping down from his post. But contrary to what the Western media suggests, this was not at all the untimely end of a superstar reformer who was achieving spectacular results.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Gavekal Monthly: Deflation Ends; What Next?

    The biggest market move of the past month was a significant rise in bond yields across the US and Europe. Much commentary has suggested that this might be a symptom of a sustained rise in inflationary pressures, as wages and rents start to push up prices in the US, and Chinese producer prices end four long years spent in negative territory. We are skeptical. The recent rise in yields has so far reversed only half of the decline in the first half...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Power Politics After The Plenum

    Economic policy in China is now entirely beholden to political demands for stability ahead of next year’s Communist Party Congress. Whether things change after depends on how much “core” leader Xi Jinping further strengthens his power, and how much he cares about reform. In this piece, Arthur assesses the outlook after this week’s Sixth Plenum.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Gavekal Monthly: What Price On A Trump Victory?

    Markets seem sanguine about the prospect of a Donald Trump victory in next month's US presidential election—too sanguine. Expert opinion gives Hillary Clinton a 75% chance of winning. But remember that four months ago in the UK, expert opinion discounted polls showing a strong chance of Brexit, and the experts were proved wrong. And the consequences of a Trump win are so huge and potentially destabilizing that even a 25% chance means...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Debate: A Trump Win And The Dollar

    As the world seriously tunes into the US presidential election, four Gavekal partners debate the outlook for the US dollar should Donald Trump emerge victorious and set about his promised remaking of the international security order and global trading system.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: Techno-nationalism 2.0

    China’s economy may be slowing, but its ability to cause technological anxiety has never been greater. Many are worried China could succeed in its ambition of becoming a global technology hub, at the expense of existing leaders. This issue of the CEQ focuses on how China is moving up the technology ladder, and the risk this triggers a backlash.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China’s New Mercantilism

    A growth slowdown and financial stress have not dented China’s determination to become one of the world’s technological leaders. The way it is setting about this task threatens to provoke a protectionist backlash.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    A Better G-20 Communiqué

    Another year, another G-20, another yawn. Though the group of the world’s 20 biggest economies was useful in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, it has since degenerated into another global drawing room where leaders explain to one other how the world would be a better place if only it were a better place. This was a missed opportunity.

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  • Gavekal Research

    Arthur Kroeber: Is China At A Crisis Point?

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