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E.g., 10-12-2018
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  • Gavekal Dragonomics

    What’s Really At Stake In The US-China Rivalry

    It is still possible that the US and China will strike a deal to avert threatened tariffs. But as Arthur argues in this piece, any deal will be mostly cosmetic. The tension between the two is not mainly about trade, but about China’s challenge to US global dominance. The US will almost certainly keep trying to counter China’s efforts to gain power.

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Trade Wars: A China Expert Roundtable

    Last week’s sharp equity market sell-off followed the US effectively threatening China with a trade war. In this report, Arthur, Long and Andrew address China’s capacity to strike back and explore what it means for the relationship between the world’s two biggest economies.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    How Much Risk Of A US-China Economic Cold War?

    Donald Trump’s announcement of tariffs on US imports of steel and aluminum looks like the first salvo in a new trade war. But while Thursday’s measures will mostly affect America’s closest allies, behind the scenes the US administration appears to be preparing a more focused campaign directed against China. In this analysis, Arthur examines the political maneuvering over trade within the Trump team, explains why the hardliners are now in the...

    6
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: China 20/20

    In this final issue of China Economic Quarterly, an all-star cast of contributors takes a look back at how the country has changed since 1997, and a look forward at how China, and its global impact, might evolve in the next couple of decades. The basic lesson is that it has never paid to underestimate China’s growth potential and capacity for change.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Good Few Decades, But Not A ‘Chinese Century’

    The China Economic Quarterly will cease publication with this issue, which also marks its 20th anniversary. CEQ started life as a newsletter for a small coterie of executives and observers interested in what was then a peripheral bit of the world economy. As China became more important and information about it in more demand, we built the Dragonomics research service around it. Today China is crucial in any discussion of global affairs, and the...

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    High Financial Anxiety

    China’s financial system has its troubles, but a large-scale crisis is unlikely. Localized problems among poorly run, small-scale city and rural banks are the bigger risk.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: The Financial Labyrinth

    Is China’s financial system going to collapse? The speed of credit growth, the proliferation of financial institutions and financial products, and the chaotic and fragmentary data all make it reasonable to fret that China is on the verge of catastrophe. This issue of the CEQ is our attempt to bring clarity to this mystifying landscape.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: China In The Asia-Pacific

    China is attempting to become Asia’s new leader. The high costs of confronting it mean that the US’s regional influence is likely to dwindle. But widespread distrust of China means that many countries will continue to prefer investment from the EU, US and Japan. This issue of China Economic Quarterly investigates China’s role in the Asia-Pacific.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    US-China Power Shift: Not So Fast

    Do Donald Trump’s miscues ensure the eclipse of Pax Americana by a rising China? Not yet.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Export Upgrade Challenge

    Shifting China’s industrial production from low-margin assembly to high-value, technology-intensive goods has long been the Holy Grail for planners. Export data show a lot of progress, but also an enduringly high reliance on foreign components, technology and management.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Squeezings From The Citrus Summit

    Last week’s Citrus Summit between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump came in with a gale of empty punditry and drifted away on a warm breeze of genial platitudes. Arthur argues that the risk of a damaging trade war between the two countries has now evaporated, and that the directionless White House has yet to sort out its economic priorities on China.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    For China, Trump Is A Paper Tiger

    The risk of a trade war between China and the US is fading as economic pragmatism gains ground, despite administrative incompetence in Washington. But Trump’s America-alone approach is weakening the US’s hand while China’s economic leverage grows ever stronger.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: Healthcare—Crisis Or Opportunity?

    China’s growing economy has brought its people longer lives, but also a new set of health problems. Though the government is trying to improve coverage, change is happening slowly. So there is a growing opportunity for private companies to fill the gap. This issue of China Economic Quarterly investigates the nation’s health problems, and solutions.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Picking Apart The Iron Ore Conundrum

    Is China’s continued rally in iron ore prices the result of benign structural change in the steel sector, or frenzied financial speculation? Rosealea and Arthur review the competing explanations, and find both have some merit. So while a lot has to go right to avoid an ore price crash, this correction could still take a while to materialize.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Brace For US-China Trade Conflict

    Is Donald Trump backing down from his threat to get tough on China trade? It might seem so: after three weeks of rapid policy moves, his promised anti-China trade action is still missing. But it will not stay missing for long. Some US move against China trade looks inevitable in coming months, though the costs will be high and the benefits unclear.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: A Coming US-China Trade War?

    In this video interview Arthur explains how a US-China trade war may play out and the implication for capital outflows from China

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Dissonance In US-China Relations

    Once Donald Trump occupies the White House he is sure to take aim at China in the form of new tariffs, anti-dumping actions and the labeling of the country as a currency manipulator. What is unclear is whether such actions reflect a tough negotiating stance, or instead a fundamental shift in the strategic equation. In this video interview, Arthur explains why the mixed messages coming out of Washington have the potential to spark a dangerous...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Can Stability Maintenance Survive Trump?

    To meet the needs of their own political cycle, Chinese leaders will aim to ensure steady economic growth for the next year. Unfortunately, it seems that the political need of US president-elect Donald Trump is to cause as much disruption for China as possible.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Enigma Of Chinese Power

    Arthur reviews four books that explain why the Communist Party has been so successful, what could bring it down, and Xi Jinping’s strategy for keeping it alive.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: Xi Jinping’s China

    2017 will be a very political year for China. The short-term priority is a smooth economic run-up to the Communist Party Congress, when Xi Jinping will strengthen his grip on power. In the long term, questions are growing as to whether the Party is flexible enough to govern a dynamic society. This issue of CEQ assesses China’s political future.

    0
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