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    Gavekal Research

    Points Of Agreement And Dissent

    Last week Louis laid out his roadmap for navigating financial markets in 2017. In this follow-up, Anatole picks up on five debating points, and details where and why he agrees or disagrees with Louis.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Crisis Of Market Fundamentalism

    After 2008, the prevailing market fundamentalism forbade political interventions that could have shared the benefits of capitalism while mitigating its costs to specific people. The result was a post-crisis confusion and disillusionment whose political effects we witnessed last year—and which has not yet ended.

    9
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    Gavekal Research

    Only The Start Of The Trumpflation Trade

    Three weeks after the US presidential election, and it looks as though the Trumpflation trade may be running out of puff. Far from it, argues Anatole. With US policy about to swing from monetarist to Keynesian, markets are only at the start of a long term bear market in bonds and a bull market in the US dollar that will have enormous repercussions on asset prices around the world.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    When The Facts Change, I Change My Mind

    After the Brexit vote, Anatole became deeply bearish, fearing that a populist insurgency could unleash a destructive retreat from globalization. With the US electorate seemingly set to reject that pathway on November 8, the likelihood of other nations following Britain by turning in on themselves is greatly diminished.

    17
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    Gavekal Research

    Debate: A Trump Win And The Dollar

    As the world seriously tunes into the US presidential election, four Gavekal partners debate the outlook for the US dollar should Donald Trump emerge victorious and set about his promised remaking of the international security order and global trading system.

    25
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    Gavekal Research

    Why Brexit Still May Not Happen

    With a newly installed British prime minister gravely intoning that “Brexit means Brexit” and having just appointed a cabal of Brexiters to run the UK’s exit strategy from the European Union, it would look to be game-over. Anatole would beg to differ and explains why there remains a strong likelihood that the UK government will change tack in the face of different circumstances than prevailed at the time of last month’s referendum.

    8
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    The Brexit Vote As Harbinger Of A Populist Age, Or Not

    The biggest threat to the world economy is no longer slumping industry in China, failing banks in Italy, unpredictable monetary policies or seesawing oil prices. All these familiar economic problems now pale compared with the political risks of Brexit, a Trump presidency and resurgent nationalism in Germany. Given the common underlying tensions driving political populism in the big advanced economies, Anatole argues that Britons will on June 23...

    9
  • Gavekal Research

    Things Fall Apart

    Over the past century periods of social breakdown have swung the pendulum of power from markets to governments and back. Each crisis ended with a transformation in economic and political thinking. Today, voter anger is a response to the 2008 breakdown of deregulated capitalism. This time, argues Anatole, politicians must reconsider the market fundamentalism that has prevailed in recent decades and design a new system of checks and balances to...

    12
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    Gavekal Research

    Why Brexit Won't Happen

    Among the multiple existential challenges facing the European Union this year—refugees, populist politics, German-inspired austerity, government bankruptcy in Greece and perhaps Portugal—one crisis is well on its way to resolution. Britain will not vote to leave the EU.

    24
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    Gavekal Research

    Brexit: A Blunder To Rank With The Boston Tea Party

    Ask any divorced couple whether their relationship would have been different had they never married. Actually, don’t bother asking, since the answer is obvious. Strangely, most conservative politicians do not seem to understand this—and neither do 48% of British voters. That is the number, according to recent opinion polls, who want a divorce from the European Union.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    How Corbynomics Could Work

    Whatever you may think of Jeremy Corbyn, he has a point about economic policy. Actually he has two good points and one bad one. Corbyn has been right about what he called People’s Quantitative Easing, a potentially transformative idea for restoring economic prosperity that was proposed years ago by several radical economists but had never been taken seriously in Britain until it became the centerpiece of Corbynomics. Corbyn has also been right...

    6
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    Gavekal Research

    Long Live US Productivity Growth!

    The contrast between last Friday’s strong US employment report and the very pedestrian GDP figures published three days earlier draws renewed attention to the greatest paradox of the post-2008 economic recovery. GDP growth since 2008 has indicated the weakest cyclical expansion on record, but employment growth has been roughly as strong as usual, at least in the US and Britain. Post-crisis US employment has grown fairly steadily at a rate of 1.5...

    2
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    Osborne’s Budget: Good For The UK, Bad for UK Assets

    After May’s surprise election victory for David Cameron’s Tories—which proved yet again that Britain is a naturally conservative country— expectations were running high for the first truly Conservative budget in the UK for almost 20 years. Yesterday, George Osborne duly delivered an impressive relaunch of British conservatism for the 21st century, in a speech self-consciously modeled on Benjamin Disraeli’s famous “One Nation” budget speeches,...

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    The UK Drama Has Only Just Started

    Although the Tory victory came as a huge surprise, it changes very little about the UK's economic or financial prospects. In that sense the absence of any big reaction in the financial markets is understandable. The pound and the stock market would have fallen steeply in the event of a “hung parliament”—and, certainly, that is the outcome I expected (see The UK Cliffhanger). But now that the prospect of domestic political instability has...

    6
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    The Darkest Hour Before Euro Dawn

    Two weeks ago we suggested that the euro’s decline against the US dollar—probably the clearest consensus trade of 2015—could soon be over. As luck would have it, we published this article on the very day the euro rebounded from a 12-year low against the US dollar of US$1.05 (see Beware The Euro Consensus). Dumb luck of this kind is certainly not evidence of wisdom or special insight. But now that the modest bounce following the euro’s March 13...

    5
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    Greeks Gaming Themselves Out

    Yanis Varoufakis, the new Greek finance minister, is a professor of economics who specializes in game theory, but when it comes to negotiating strategy he has more to learn than to teach. Varoufakis’ idea of a winning strategy is to hold a gun to his own head and then demand a ransom for not pulling the trigger. Not surprisingly, this bluff has been called, first by the German government and now by the European Central Bank. As a result the...

    11
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    Gavekal Research

    The Macro Dividend From Oil

    Now that the markets have dealt with their post-New Year hangover and the buy-on-dips normal service has been resumed, it seems a good time to step back and consider some of the themes that could dominate markets in the months ahead. Here are some suggestions for this year’s main macro stories, with some financial implications at the end.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Catching The Russian Knife

    Why does a country with US$416bn of foreign exchange reserves and a current account surplus bigger than China or Japan relative to the size of its economy, suffer a currency crisis? The obvious answer is that the country is called Russia and it has launched an undeclared war against the US and EU. On closer inspection, however, this year’s 50% devaluation of the ruble, which culminated with an apparent death-plunge on Wednesday morning after the...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    A Debate: Fade Or Embrace The ECB?

    Client: You published your last quarterly on the various scenarios confronting Europe. And arguably, the recent downturn in global markets finds its source in the fact that European growth has lately come in a lot weaker than most investors expected. Throughout the year, Francois has argued for exposure to Europe’s ‘national victims.’ Do you think that this call still makes sense? We had Anatole pop by the office the other day, mostly to discuss...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Europe: Apocalypse Postponed

    Be afraid, be very afraid, if you are an investor in Europe. An “atomic bomb” is going to blow up in “the confrontation between Paris and Brussels”, warns Le Figaro, perhaps the most influential French newspaper, reporting what looks like the inevitable rejection of the French government’s 2015 budget by the European Commission. The same story appeared in other European media outlets this week, with many even attaching a precise date to this...

    5
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