E.g., 28-07-2017
E.g., 28-07-2017
We have found 76 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Eurozone Is Now So Far Behind The US, It’s In Front

    Among the many tricky tasks facing investors is to determine the relative positions of the US and eurozone economies in their respective business cycles. Over the preceding two cycles—the ones that peaked in 2000/01 and 2005/06—the two economies moved broadly in phase, with the eurozone lagging the US by around one year. Estimates from the International Monetary Fund and OECD suggest that that relative position is largely unchanged, with the...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Watch US-Eurozone Rate Differentials

    Interest rate differentials between the US and eurozone are wide by historical standards. This is no surprise. The US has enjoyed uninterrupted growth (at least in year-on-year terms) since 2010, and today the Federal Reserve stands as the most hawkish big central bank in town. In contrast, the eurozone slumped back into recession in 2012, and the European Central Bank remains in full-blown easing mode. As a result, interest rate differentials...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Don’t Give Up On Eurozone Equities

    When a market fails to rally further on successive rounds of good news, investors can be forgiven for feeling a tad nervous about the outlook. It is little surprise, therefore, that many portfolio managers are expressing skepticism about the near-term sustainability of the bull market in eurozone equities. Since the election of Emmanuel Macron as French president two months ago, the macro headlines from the single currency area have been...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Real Macron

    On Monday Emmanuel Macron launched what is being dubbed an imperial presidency. He offered a neo-Gaullist vision of a strong leader nurturing a troubled nation’s recovery. Yet he also unfurled an electoral reform program aiming to break the old political duopoly. The worry is that Macron uses up his political capital and economic reform stalls.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Draghi’s Two Ps And The Euro

    When choosing three adjectives to describe the ECB’s evolving monetary policy stance, Mario Draghi this week alighted on confidence, persistence and prudence. Yet judging by the big reaction in currency and bond markets, traders ignored the two Ps and heard only about Draghi’s confidence in Europe’s strengthening recovery. Markets treated the speech as a unambiguous signal that the ECB is turning more hawkish.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The French Reset

    French voters have handed President Emmanuel Macron a clear parliamentary majority after his La République en Marche party yesterday secured an estimated 360 out of 577 seats. He will also get support from many of the 170 or so Republican and Socialist party deputies who were just elected. After a record low turnout, critics may question his moral authority, but there is no doubting that Macron is now the master of French politics. Hence, he is...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    What Germany Wants

    What does Germany want? That was a question we asked in January as sabre rattling by the new US president unnerved Europe’s instinctive mercantilist. Our answer was that Germany was at a cross-roads in its modern history and could either double down on a narrow pursuit of surpluses, or instead embrace its European Union members with a fresh push to federalism. Monday’s meeting between Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel confirmed that the latter...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Macron And French Optionality

    For investors, the great benefit of Emmanuel Macron is that even if his big plans for change fizzle a nice cyclical economic recovery will almost certainly play out. If the president-elect defies the stereotypical view of France as being basically unreformable, the kicker is huge optionality built into asset values that have non-challenging valuations. Either way, Cedric argues that France represents a stand-out investment opportunity.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Positive Cycle For Eurozone Earnings

    For many investors, last night’s televised debate will have removed any lingering fears about French political risk, freeing them to focus on the eurozone earnings picture—which is increasingly rosy. The majority of pundits awarded the debate on points to centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron. Their verdict was that the performance of far-right Euroskeptic Marine Le Pen was insufficiently “presidential” to sway undecided voters. As a result,...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: The French Election And Beyond

    In these video interviews Cedric looks at likely scenarios in the second round of the French presidential election, while Nick considers the potential for a renewed Franco-German axis as the driver of progress in the European Union.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call On The French And UK Elections

    In a special Gavekal Research Conference Call following the results of the first round of the French presidential election, Charles Gave and Cedric Gemehl presented their analysis of Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron’s prospects in the second round in two weeks. Anatole Kaletsky presented his view of British politics and the future of the Brexit process following Theresa May calling for a snap election in June.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Takeaways From France’s First Round

    For once the opinion pollsters got things right. Although the candidates of France’s traditionally dominant left and right wing parties were both eliminated in yesterday’s first round presidential election, the political center held. Independent Europhile centrist Emmanuel Macron emerged with the largest share—23.9%—of the vote, for a second round face-off against nationalist Euroskeptic Marine Le Pen, who captured 21.4%.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Final Thoughts On The French First Round

    Going into Sunday’s first round vote in France’s presidential election, it is widely assumed that yesterday’s tragic events on the Champs Élysées will boost nationalist-populist candidate Marine Le Pen. What is clear is that the race has tightened: centrist outsider Emmanuel Macron is polling at 24%, Le Pen at 22.5%, Republican François Fillon at 19% and firebrand socialist Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 18.5%. Here are some final thoughts for navigating...

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Target2 Fears Are Wide Of The Mark

    With Euroskeptic candidates showing strongly in the opinion polls ahead of France’s presidential election, Italy’s debt trap as inescapable as ever, and negotiations over the next round of Greece’s bail-out making little headway, talk about a possible break-up of the eurozone is once again doing the rounds. And as it does so, fears are rising about the growing magnitude of the European Central Bank’s Target2 balances, and the financial havoc...

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Beyond The Election Risk: Upturn Still Favors Eurozone Stocks

    For the next three weeks at least, the upcoming two-round French presidential election will continue to dictate short term sentiment among investors in the eurozone. Following a late surge in the opinion polls from far left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, two of the four leading contenders are now professed Euroskeptics. That knowledge has colored investor attitudes, keeping the spreads between French and German sovereigns elevated—the 10-year...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Europe Braces For The French Election

    The macroeconomic stars are aligning for the eurozone. The region’s cyclical recovery is extending itself across economies and sectors alike. Inflation remains modest, reducing the chances of an early monetary tightening. Eurozone equities are relatively cheap in an expensive world. And the euro is fundamentally undervalued against the US dollar. However, the big risk for investors remains the possibility that nationalist euroskeptic Marine Le...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Stay Long Ruble Bonds

    Russia has been a consensus overweight among emerging market managers since early 2016. They have been handsomely rewarded. Over the last 12 months, ruble-denominated Russian finance ministry bonds, known as OFZs, have returned 37% in US dollar terms. Small wonder then that over the same time period non-resident holdings of OFZs have increased from 21% of outstanding issuance to 27%. After such an impressive outperformance, it is natural to ask...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Europe’s Surest Bet

    As investors fret about the trajectory of US growth and the sustainability of the Trump reflation trade, Europe is getting drawn in. Sovereign yields fell pretty much across the board yesterday on worries that the eurozone’s gathering cyclical upturn could be disrupted. In this case, the thinking is that monetary stimulus by the European Central Bank gets extended. To our mind, such worries are overdone as—absent an external shock—Europe’s pick-...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research March Call

    Yesterday’s call had Cedric Gemehl and Anatole Kaletsky opine on political risk leading up to French and German national elections later this year. Nick Andrews argued that the eurozone recovery is becoming self-sustaining, and offered views on capturing the upside, while hedging against political risk.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Playing The Eurozone Recovery

    For the first time in years you don’t have to be a swivel-eyed loon to think the eurozone has a fairly bright economic future. Growth is broadening, deepening and frankly becoming less newsworthy. The wrinkle is political tail risk, but we think this threat is containable.

    2
Show me: results