E.g., 26-04-2018
E.g., 26-04-2018
We have found 46 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    La France En Grève

    Once again, French public sector workers are en grève—on strike. In the last couple of weeks, railway workers, air traffic controllers and teachers (and their students) have walked out in protest against Emmanuel Macron’s structural reforms. Inevitably such broad opposition to official policy has prompted memories of 1995, and even 1968. But as Cedric explains, times have moved on, and today the public is more ready than ever before to...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Playing Russia’s Continued Recovery

    The result of this weekend’s Russian presidential election is not in doubt. But investors in Russia face considerable uncertainty. Despite monetary policy and exchange rate liberalization, Russia has made little progress towards the structural reforms needed to boost its potential growth rate above rock-bottom levels. Nevertheless, cyclical tailwinds mean there are still some attractive pockets of opportunity for international investors.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Change And Stasis In Italy

    In Italy’s general election on Sunday, the anti-establishment Five Star Movement emerged as the largest single party in each chamber of parliament, and the populist Lega eclipsed Silvio Berlusconi’s Forze Italia to dominate the right of Italian politics. Following these changes, it is hard to see how any plausible combination of parties can secure a stable majority in both houses of parliament. As Cedric and Anatole explain, the most likely...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Five Ways To Play European Equities

    After a traumatic couple of weeks in the equity markets, Nick and Cedric take this opportunity to revisit their longstanding advice that investors should overweight European mid-caps exposed to the eurozone’s cyclical upturn. As they explain in this report, that call still holds, and they suggest three sectors where investors should look to buy the dip, and two that portfolio managers would do well to avoid.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Eastern Europe's Equity Sweet Spot

    The big issue facing investors globally is whether inflation makes a Lazarus-like comeback. But in one significant economic region, it is already alive and kicking. Eastern Europe experienced a painful deflation and repricing after the 2008 crisis, but inflation is now well above 2.5%. Having underperformed for many years, Cedric argues that its financial-heavy equity indexes should continue to do well in an environment of strong domestic demand...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    When Political Stagnation Is Benign

    Last week, European economic affairs commissioner Pierre Moscovici declared Italy a “political risk” for the European Union. Some of the Euroskeptic campaign rhetoric has certainly been alarming. But in this paper Nick and Cedric delve into Italy’s electoral arithmetic to conclude that no incoming government is likely to have the will or capability to act on such combative promises.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Spending Again In Germany

    Picture the typical German consumer. The image that comes to mind is almost certainly of a deeply conservative individual: cautious, thrifty in his or her spending habits, and with a deep-seated aversion to maxing out the credit card. As with most stereotypes, this one has some foundation in experience. But like many, it also looks increasingly out of date. While Germany’s booming export sector has got most of the attention recently, it is...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    France: Believe The Hype

    A basic assumption among Anglo-Saxon investors has been that France, for all its nice food, good wine and smart infrastructure, was the unreformable economy. Then Emmanuel Macron came along promising to fix things, duly got elected president, orchestrated a thumping parliamentary majority and actually began to deliver on promises.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    German Overheating? No, Eurozone Rebalancing

    In early November, Germany’s Council of Economic Experts, a panel of five heavyweights that advises the government, declared there were clear signs that Europe’s largest economy was running above potential and at risk of overheating. Three weeks later inflation data showed that consumer prices rose by a faster than expected 1.8% year-on-year in October, up from 1.5% in September, with the core ex-energy and food inflation rate also surprising to...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Debating The Eurozone Recovery

    Over the last two years, Nick and Cedric have held similar views about the eurozone’s economic situation. In recent months, however, they have started to diverge on whether this framework still describes Europe’s situation. The upshot is that while Cedric is bulled up, Nick has begun to think the recovery is running out of road.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Curious Case Of European Optimism

    This weekend saw Madrid announce emergency measures over Catalonia, upping the chance of a declaration of independence being made in Barcelona. Yet despite the worst Spanish political crisis since the 80s, markets have mostly shrugged. After eight years viewing all glasses as half-empty, investors in eurozone assets have since the Brexit vote seemingly turned into congenital optimists.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Bond Markets Don’t Speak Catalan

    This week has seen the Spanish government arrest Catalan public officials and take control of the region’s public finances in response to an independence plebiscite that it says is illegal. Cedric concedes that the row is messy and won’t be quickly resolved, but says that it is highly unlikely to result in a genuine political crisis that derails the Spanish economic recovery.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Somewhat Changed Germany

    After recent high-drama elections in the US, France and Britain, Germany’s national democratic exercise has been a relative snooze-fest. On Sunday, Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union grouping should comfortably win the biggest slice of the vote and the coalition building will start. There are, however, reasons to think that Merkel could attempt to strike out on her own.

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Eurozone Is Now So Far Behind The US, It’s In Front

    Among the many tricky tasks facing investors is to determine the relative positions of the US and eurozone economies in their respective business cycles. Over the preceding two cycles—the ones that peaked in 2000/01 and 2005/06—the two economies moved broadly in phase, with the eurozone lagging the US by around one year. Estimates from the International Monetary Fund and OECD suggest that that relative position is largely unchanged, with the...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Real Macron

    On Monday Emmanuel Macron launched what is being dubbed an imperial presidency. He offered a neo-Gaullist vision of a strong leader nurturing a troubled nation’s recovery. Yet he also unfurled an electoral reform program aiming to break the old political duopoly. The worry is that Macron uses up his political capital and economic reform stalls.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Macron And French Optionality

    For investors, the great benefit of Emmanuel Macron is that even if his big plans for change fizzle a nice cyclical economic recovery will almost certainly play out. If the president-elect defies the stereotypical view of France as being basically unreformable, the kicker is huge optionality built into asset values that have non-challenging valuations. Either way, Cedric argues that France represents a stand-out investment opportunity.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Target2 Fears Are Wide Of The Mark

    With Euroskeptic candidates showing strongly in the opinion polls ahead of France’s presidential election, Italy’s debt trap as inescapable as ever, and negotiations over the next round of Greece’s bail-out making little headway, talk about a possible break-up of the eurozone is once again doing the rounds. And as it does so, fears are rising about the growing magnitude of the European Central Bank’s Target2 balances, and the financial havoc...

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Stay Long Ruble Bonds

    Russia has been a consensus overweight among emerging market managers since early 2016. They have been handsomely rewarded. Over the last 12 months, ruble-denominated Russian finance ministry bonds, known as OFZs, have returned 37% in US dollar terms. Small wonder then that over the same time period non-resident holdings of OFZs have increased from 21% of outstanding issuance to 27%. After such an impressive outperformance, it is natural to ask...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Playing The Eurozone Recovery

    For the first time in years you don’t have to be a swivel-eyed loon to think the eurozone has a fairly bright economic future. Growth is broadening, deepening and frankly becoming less newsworthy. The wrinkle is political tail risk, but we think this threat is containable.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Polls, Big Data And The French Primary

    It’s been said that big data is like carnal knowledge in teenage boys’ locker rooms: everyone talks about it, but noone really knows much about it. A slew of election results in the last few years supports such a viewpoint, for in an age when everything can supposedly be measured, political forecasts have been proven hugely flawed—the UK general election in 2015, the Brexit vote, the Colombian peace-process referendum, Donald Trump winning the...

    8
Show me: results