E.g., 20-07-2017
E.g., 20-07-2017
We have found 245 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Regional Bottom Line For Growth

    China’s 2016 stimulus likely provided enough momentum to ensure GDP growth in 2017 will meet the 6.5% target. But on closer examination the stimulus looks as much a rescue operation for troubled regions as a shift in national policy. This interpretation implies that the political drivers of Chinese policymaking are different from what most commentators believe.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    What Is The Signal In The Renminbi’s Surprising Strength?

    Over the past week and a half, the renminbi has appreciated 1.1% against the US dollar in the onshore market, and 1.5% offshore, where the PBOC has also engineered a spike in short-term interest rates. It seems China wants to send a signal about the renminbi, but markets are having trouble decoding what it is. Andrew outlines three possible strategies the central bank may be following.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Regulatory Stress Is Still Bearable

    The main source of uncertainty in the Chinese economy right now is the financial crackdown launched in March. In this piece, Andrew looks at the April data and finds that the regulatory campaign’s impact has so far been contained. This supports our call that the regulatory stress is a bigger problem for asset markets than for the real economy.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Cyclically Fine, Structurally, Well...

    Optimism about China’s growth is now higher than it has been for years, after the notable recovery in the last couple of quarters. But in this piece, Andrew argues China still can’t escape a further growth slowdown, because its continued reliance on state-driven investment is sapping productivity growth and undermining the private sector.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Equity Is The New Debt

    China’s free-spending local governments have a new way to get money. Raising equity, not just debt, is how many localities are financing the current wave of infrastructure and industrial projects. In this piece, we explain how a new model of government-led funds began as a replacement for local borrowing, but ending up only adding to liabilities.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The State Of The State Sector

    After forty years of market reforms, state-owned enterprises retain an exceptionally large role in China’s economy. Though their financial performance is deteriorating and their debts are growing, SOEs’ share of the economy is rising rather than falling. In this chartbook, Andrew pulls together the data to show the true state of China’s SOEs.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: Healthcare—Crisis Or Opportunity?

    China’s growing economy has brought its people longer lives, but also a new set of health problems. Though the government is trying to improve coverage, change is happening slowly. So there is a growing opportunity for private companies to fill the gap. This issue of China Economic Quarterly investigates the nation’s health problems, and solutions.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Ghost Of A Communist Past

    Despite what Beijing thinks, political liberalization wasn’t what brought down the USSR. The economy did. Andrew Batson reviews Chris Miller's The Struggle to Save the Soviet Economy.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Fiscal Stimulus? What Fiscal Stimulus?

    China’s latest budget report reinforces its recent shift toward marginally dialing back economic stimulus. In 2016, the finance ministry raised the deficit to 3% of GDP from 2.4% in 2015; for 2017, it is standing pat, targeting a 3% deficit again. Less publicized but more relevant is the fact that off-budget public works spending is also slowing.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Is China Ready For A Trade Shock From Trump?

    China reported an acceleration in its economic growth on Friday, just hours before Donald Trump was sworn in as US president. But growth could take a hit if Trump makes radical changes to tax and trade policy. And while China has plenty of weapons to fight a trade war, those measures are unlikely to completely offset a sudden shock to its exports.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Five Macro Questions For 2017

    For our first China research piece of the new year, we offer a guide to the economic outlook in the form of short answers to some big questions: Will China be as boring as consensus forecast imply? Will the central bank hike interest rates? Will the housing market correct sharply? Will it be a good year for Chinese equities? Will the labor market hold up?

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Risk Avoidance Strategy

    China’s economy has turned in another slate of decent growth data for October. The three drivers of loose credit, recovering construction, and rising commodity prices that have supported the economy are still holding firm. But Andrew cautions that the government’s objective is not exactly growth at all costs, but rather avoiding downside risks.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Andrew Batson: What Next For Chinese Growth?

    Chinese policymakers are set on maintaining economic stability ahead of a crucial Communist Party meeting next year—but while that means stabilizing growth it also means pushing back against a property bubble. In this video interview, Andrew assesses the tactical trade-offs that must be made in support of the strategy of stability.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Three Pillars Of Stability

    China has now delivered real GDP growth of 6.7% three quarters in a row—a stability that is uncanny even by its standards. Such stability is even more prized than usual by the government, now preoccupied with next year’s Communist Party Congress. In this piece Andrew assesses how much longer the three pillars supporting this stability can hold up.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Equality Engine Is Stalling

    For all its leaders’ talk of a “new normal,” China has not weaned itself off the “old normal” of housing and investment-led growth. That model was in fact a powerful engine for reducing regional inequality, so it has much political support. The engine has now stalled—but rather than swap in a new one, the government keeps revving the old one.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Is Internet Growth Really Slowing Down?

    Often overlooked in the hype around China’s internet boom is the downturn in some key indicators: growth in internet users and in online retail has slowed. How to reconcile this with an apparently thriving internet economy—can the internet’s growth really be slowing down? The answer is yes, and no; it’s how the internet is growing that’s changing.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Holding Pattern

    Market worries about China have gone very quiet lately—and this is no accident. In this presentation, Andrew argues that China is in a holding pattern of steady growth and cautious policy ahead of the 2017 Party Congress. While China probably won’t be forced out of the holding pattern, financial stress and structural problems continue to build.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    What Happens When Growth Disappoints Again?

    The panic over China’s currency in early 2016 feels like ancient history. Since then, worries about the economy have largely receded from market concerns. But China’s business cycle peaked in the first half of the year, is now clearly slowing and will likely fail to reach its growth target in early 2017. How will the world react when this happens?

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Gavekal Monthly: How Long Can The Rally Last?

    Investors enjoyed a surprisingly upbeat summer with the World MSCI close to an all-time high and emerging markets continuing to benefit disproportionately. Yet with the Federal Reserve sounding increasingly hawkish, earnings looking soft and political uncertainty remaining the order of the day, this Gavekal Monthly focuses on threats to the current benign market mood.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Better Indicator Of Investment

    Growth in fixed-asset investment is now the lowest it has been in the 12-year history of the data. But FAI is a very messy indicator, and increasingly inconsistent with the national accounts. Out of frustration, I have built a simple model to track investment growth in national-accounts terms—gross fixed capital formation—on a monthly basis.

    4
Show me: results