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E.g., 30-04-2017
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    Gavekal Research

    Thailand’s Transition

    Perhaps the one thing that Thailand’s polarized political tribes have agreed on in recent times is that the passing of their (generally) popular king would mark a pivotal moment of transition. King Bhumibol Adulyadej, 88, who died yesterday was a steady presence who stopped violent political struggles from morphing into a general civil conflict. The concern is that this restraint now goes out of the window, as opponents to the royalist...

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    Staring Into The Abyss

    Since Rodrigo Duterte became president of the Philippines in May, he has sanctioned the extra-judicial killing of some 3,600 petty criminals and drug users, graphically insulted the US president, favorably compared himself to Hitler, and threatened to switch his country’s allegiance to China and Russia. As he has ripped up behavioral norms for democratic heads of state, investors have yanked out at least US$500mn of capital over the last two...

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    The German Banking Problem

    These are not happy times for Europe’s commercial bankers. The adoption of negative interest rates may have averted the slide into a deflationary abyss, but the policy has hit lending margins, and with them profits. Exhibit A is Deutsche Bank, the dominant financial institution in Europe’s largest and most dynamic economy. Deutsche, whose market value has shrunk to just US$14bn, has problems of its own making in the US, yet its plight has been...

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    The Return Of US Fiscal Policy

    More than three years after the world fretted about the US economy falling off a “fiscal cliff”, there is suddenly much talk of government spending being used to gin up growth. Whatever their many differences, both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump favour a fiscal expansion, with a focus on upgrading the US’s aging infrastructure stock. At the same time Federal Reserve officials, led by Janet Yellen and John Williams, are arguing for more fiscal...

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    The Flow Through To EM Equities

    These are strange times for investors with bond yields in big developed markets plumbing new depths on dark concerns about never ending deflation and stagnation. Yet in a clearly related development, US equities are making new highs while corporate- and emerging market-bonds continue to rally.

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    Australia, The Next Shoe To Drop

    Central bankers are ditching managerial gradualism in their monetary policy communication and are getting serious. Switzerland, Denmark, India and now Canada have all made surprise interest rate moves in recent days—okay, the European Central Bank continues to drip-feed its every thought to friendly journalists, but the sheer scale of the adjustment taking place in relative global prices means that policymakers must respond swiftly to events....

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    Europe Not EMs At The Vortex

    In the summer of 1998, Russia’s financial crisis stemmed from the oil price plunge that followed the Asian financial crisis. Today the worry is that Russia’s fall is causing a cycle of contagion which could pull down even decently managed emerging economies. Unusually, this collapse is happening just as the world’s biggest asset allocators prepare to effectively shut up shop. It is rare to get a full blown crisis over year-end simply because...

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    Our Holiday Reading List

    For the third year we are publishing a year-end books round-up. The topics covered by the 17 books in our compendium include hardy Gavekal perennials such as economics, politics and the effect of technological transformation on modern life. In addition Charles considers ancient Rome’s decline due to its apparent embrace of socialism over liberalism. Louis kicks us off with a look at the roots of our most basic human urges.

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    Gavekal Research

    Oil And Contagion

    So much for the gentle year-end that looked to be in store after the swift recovery from October’s sell-off. Investors now face an acute dilemma as oil demand estimates get scaled back and the energy complex howls: does the effective tax cut delivered to oil consumers outweigh the effects of capital destruction and rising bad debt that must result from a 40% fall in prices? US equity investors have mostly cheered the onset of $2 a gallon...

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    An Irish Outlier?

    The Irish economy looks to be making a faster than expected recovery from its grim 2010 nadir. Growth is running at an annualized 6.5% which is more reminiscent of the “Celtic tiger” era than the grinding recession conditions still typical in Southern Europe. Ireland seems sure to emerge as a paradigmatic case study between the rival policymaking camps of so called Austerians and those advocating more conventional Keynesian responses. But for...

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    5C Overview: Volatility RIP

    Having weathered fears of depression, a systemic euroland failure and most recently the specter of deflation, investors can be excused for their insouciant attitude to risk. We may not be in sunlit uplands, but for the first time since 2008 the global growth trajectory looks fairly secure and the big central banks have their monetary policy settings in sync. Hence, it is not surprising that volatility across most asset classes is making new lows...

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    Why Thailand Is The Odd Man Out

    In the mid-1990s Thailand’s over-built and excessively geared economy provided a clear early warning signal for the troubles about to engulf the rest of emerging Asia. But having now suffered two military coups in eight years Thailand is less a bellwether than a regional outlier that seems to have given up serious development in favor of a struggle to subdivide existing wealth and power. The good news from Asia is that ascendant political...

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    What Ails The Dollar

    A curious brew of cheap money, a grinding cyclical recovery and “new economy” verisimilitude has helped drive Wall Street to new highs. And yet even as equity investors have scaled the wall of worry, the dollar has remained uninspired. The unit arguably started a structural upswing in 2008 but the recent performance has been lackluster with the DXY index at the bottom of its trading range.

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    Asia Ducks The EM Crisis

    Janet Yellen’s first proper outing on the international stage is set for this weekend when she attends the G20 finance ministers shindig in Australia. She will encounter grumpy emerging market counterparts who blame fickle US monetary policy for capital outflow that has sent growth tumbling. This is likely all the EMs will agree upon since it is increasingly clear that this is not a generalized crisis of big developing economies, but a shake-out...

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    Gavekal Research

    Shoot The Fed Watchers

    Fed watchers have rarely been in such demand as the art of divining the language, tone and likely psychological motivations of the actors on the stage reaches new levels of silliness. In contrast to his oblique and strategically ambiguous predecessor, Ben Bernanke promised a transparent, plain speaking and supposedly rather dull Federal Reserve. As things turned out, we are back pondering the etymological distinction between adjectival forms....

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    The Other Emerging Markets Story

    Investors have had a harsh reminder of the risks presented by high growth developing economies with rudimentary financial systems. And yet for every manager who tells us that they will never again take the call of a Singapore or Sao Paulo-based equity broker, we cannot but feel that the current gloom is overdone. Indeed, we are seeing encouraging signs of reforms that could serve as the basis for the next phase of EM growth.

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    Gavekal Research

    Europe’s Control Engineers

    “Words are, of course, the most powerful drug used by mankind,” so said Rudyard Kipling. When central bankers meet next month for the annual Jackson Hole shindig, they can ruminate on their success being increasingly dictated less by what they do, than what they say. Take the European Central Bank and Bank of England which in recent months have been fairly taciturn next to a loquacious Federal Reserve. Yet, by yesterday verbalizing forward...

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    Portugal Goes Rogue?

    Nothing so disturbs a disciplinarian teacher as the prospect of a model pupil turning into the class rebel. With Portugal’s center-right coalition government seemingly on the brink of collapse, such are the fears in Brussels and Berlin. Lisbon has pushed through painful structural reform, stuck to fiscal austerity and in the process improved a chronic trade deficit. Hence, the fallout from Portugal going rogue and rejecting the Troika medicine...

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    A New Global Growth Story

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    Five Corners (19 June 2013)

    In the latest Five Corners biweekly review of global economics and investment:

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