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    Gavekal Research

    A New Franco-German Axis

    For the last decade, pretty much every politician who counted in France has spoken of the European Union in scathing terms. That is likely to change on Sunday if the pro-integrationist Emmanuel Macron confirms poll forecasts and scores a resounding win in the French presidential election. His upbeat belief in federal solutions to Europe’s structural problems will not just change the discourse, but according to Nick could renew the Franco-German...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Playing The Eurozone Recovery

    For the first time in years you don’t have to be a swivel-eyed loon to think the eurozone has a fairly bright economic future. Growth is broadening, deepening and frankly becoming less newsworthy. The wrinkle is political tail risk, but we think this threat is containable.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Italian Debt Trap Jaws Tighten

    In the middle ages Venice thrived as the economic, artistic and intellectual leader of the Mediterranean. By 1500 it was in retreat, but the roots of that decline dated to a 1286 decision by the city state’s governing council to vest power in the hands of 40 great families which dominated the trading economy. The cycle of innovation that had driven the “Queen of the Adriatic” ebbed as special interests gradually captured the system.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Lady Is Not For Turning

    As she kicked off her general election campaign this week, Angela Merkel declared that Germany “had never had it so good”. The economy is humming so nicely that Germany’s council of economic advisors recently warned about overheating. This would seem to rule out a fiscal stimulus, which conflicts with Brussels’ policy of engineering a more expansionary fiscal environment.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: European Political Dominos

    In the aftermath of the Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election, attention has shifted to the eurozone with the assumption that more dominos must topple under the gathering populist political wave. In this video interview Nick considers the good, the bad and the ugly of the European political scene and offers pointers for navigating these risks.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Renzi’s Great Gamble

    Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has bet his premiership on a referendum over constitutional reform. It is a high stakes gamble. Renzi’s promise to step down if there is a “No” vote has turned the referendum into a vote of confidence in the government, its Europhile policies, and Italy’s membership of the eurozone itself.

    10
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    Gavekal Research

    The Way Ahead For Italian Banks

    On Friday, the European Banking Authority will publish the results of its 2016 stress tests. Although 51 banks from across the European Union have been tested, attention will focus most closely on the results of the five Italian banks covered. With Italy’s banking system widely identified as the most likely locus of a new eurozone crisis, bankers, politicians and investors are all hoping for the “best” likely result. This would see all the banks...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The German Consumer Lives

    By most measures, the eurozone remains unbalanced, with a competitive north eating the lunch of a productivity-challenged Latin periphery. Germany’s current account surplus stands at 8.6% of GDP and its banks are stuffed with excess deposits, suggesting that thrift remains the Teutonic economic passion of choice. Yet look closer at Germany and it is clear that domestic demand, not exports, is driving growth—household spending accounted for about...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Eurozone Reform Update 2016

    Last February we published a detailed score card of the structural reform efforts undertaken by Europe’s battered peripheral economies (see Assessing ‘Thatcherite-Keynesianism’). The last year has seen small improvements, but not enough change to warrant another box-ticking exercise. Our assessment in 2016 mostly focuses on the key relationship between the labor markets and national competitiveness. Inevitably such changes are slow moving and in...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    European Disunion

    The grand old men who conceived of a united states of Europe knew that a successful single currency demanded a modern federation with integrated monetary, fiscal and political institutions. Such a leap into the unknown was politically impossible in the 1990s, and their assumption (and perhaps hope) was that the less than optimal eurozone would suffer periodic crises, so creating the conditions for reform and a centralization of powers. Since the...

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    The Overlooked Risk In Italy

    What is the biggest threat to European stability this year? The continent’s migrant crisis? The chance that the British will vote in a referendum to leave the European Union? Or the danger of contagion from China’s slowing economy and fragile financial markets? All of these do pose risks, but it is possible that the greatest threat to Europe this year could come from a different quarter altogether: Italy’s banking sector. At first the danger...

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Drifting In The Mid-Atlantic

    On the one hand the United Kingdom looks to have similar dynamics to recovering European economies, where growth is picking up nicely even though deflationary pressure still looms—Britain’s headline CPI rate stands at -0.1% and real rates have swung positive from a low of -4.7%. Such a cautious view explains why the Bank of England offered a report last week whose dovishness surprised some. Yet, on the other hand mid-Atlantic Britain in many...

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Good Enough In Turkey

    Investors have welcomed last weekend’s victory of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) founded by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Turkey’s elections, with the lira and equities both rallying strongly. After June’s inconclusive poll failed to produce a workable government, the concern was that a country with huge economic, security and strategic challenges would become ungovernable. In this context, the election result was the best that...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Good Enough In Turkey

    Investors have welcomed last weekend’s victory of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) founded by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Turkey’s elections, with the lira and equities both rallying strongly. After June’s inconclusive poll failed to produce a workable government, the concern was that a country with huge economic, security and strategic challenges would become ungovernable. In this context, the election result was the best that...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Italy’s Debt Trap Escape Bid

    Even though Italy has run primary surpluses for all but one of the last 20 years, public debt has ballooned to 133% of GDP, second only to Greece in the eurozone. Italy’s original profligacy dates to the 1980s, but the real issue has been an inability to bite the bullet on reform, which, according to the International Monetary Fund, has reduced potential economic growth to just 0.4%. The good news is that Italy seems to have woken up and smelt...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Gastarbeiter Redux

    The influx of hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers from war torn Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq and parts of Africa has laid bare familiar divisions within the European Union. This week’s deal to relocate 120,000 more refugees from Greece and Italy on top of the 40,000 agreed in May starts to address the problem. Many multiples more are making the trip to Europe, but only one country—Germany—is promising to take large numbers. Commentators often...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    As The Crisis Ebbs, Will Europe Turn Japanese?

    The China-induced crisis of recent weeks was noteworthy for being a major global risk-off event that, for once, was not made in Europe. Indeed as markets crumbled on Monday the euro soared. Europe’s graduation from weak link to quasi safe haven is not so surprising given the patch-up job done on Greece and a gathering cyclical recovery—private sector credit growth in the eurozone for July was a fairly perky 0.7% YoY. The question is whether the...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Europe's Democratic Divide

    Voters, it would seem, pose a clear and present danger to the eurozone. Syriza’s success in last weekend’s “Greferendum” shows there is only so much conventional medicine that electorates will take before looking for miracle cures. The party’s rise has mirrored the fall in Greek living standards since the financial crisis and the failure of Troika bailout packages to turn the country around. It has been useful to label Greece as “exceptional”...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Why Germany Is Not Turning Japanese

    Germany has economic problems that most countries would die for—low unemployment and steadily rising real wages mean that policymakers must respond to bottlenecks such as labor shortages (see Germany Normalizes). The longer-term worry is that these “gaps” will become permanent as high-growth Germany must also grapple with Japanese-style demographics. The fear is that its post-2010 expansion could be a swan song before the structural growth...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Rebirth Of CEE Banking - Cedric Gemehl & Nick Andrews

    Who will benefit most from Europe’s extraordinary monetary easing? Will it be struggling giants such as Italy and France, or those lapping up liquidity on the fringes? Our contention is that Central and Eastern Europe is at the early stage of a “deflationary boom” while financial institutions have sufficiently recovered to transmit the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing program into credit expansion.

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