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E.g., 23-09-2017
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    Gavekal Research

    Good Governance, Poor Performance

    Japan has embraced the idea that better corporate governance leads to superior stock price performance. In 2014 the stock exchange launched the JPX-Nikkei 400 good governance index in an attempt to get Japan Inc. to raise its governance game. There’s just one problem: the index has consistently underperformed the broader market.

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Japan's Next Baby Boom

    In this interview Neil explains why the oft repeated line about Japanese couples not wanting to have many kids is a huge exaggeration. The problem is bizarre government regulations and a drastic shortage of childcare facilities. Such inhibitors to tiny feet pattering are about to get a major government-induced overhaul, and a Japanese baby boom may be around the corner. If correct, this shift in Japan’s demographic curve could have profound...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    In Bed With The Japanese

    The international media have been full of headlines recently about how the Japanese are failing to make enough babies. But the reason for Japan’s failing fertility is not some lack of libido. Instead, as Neil explains, the government's antiquated policies towards women and families have proved a remarkably effective—if inadvertent—form of contraception.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The New Frontier In Aerospace

    The highlight of this week’s Zhuhai airshow in Southern China was a fly-past by two of the People’s Liberation Army’s new J-20 warplanes, touted as China’s first stealth aircraft. Western military analysts reserved their judgment, pointing out they had learned nothing new about the aircraft, except that it was very noisy. Nevertheless, the broader message from Zhuhai was clear, echoing a similar message broadcast by the Japan International...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Even Better Than The Real Thing

    This summer’s craze for Pokémon Go underlined how augmented and virtual reality—long more virtual than real—are fast becoming a viable proposition. In this paper, Neil reviews the latest advances in the technology, and assesses the most promising fields for near term growth.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The New Material

    The US$1.8trn global aviation sector shows no sign of slowing—last year passenger numbers rose by 6.5%. The race is on to deliver cheaper, more efficient aircraft. The big winners from this trend may be makers of composite carbon fiber. The market for carbon fiber used in aircraft is set to grow from US$17.3bn in 2014 to US$34.2bn by 2020.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Japan: Twice Bitten, Thrice Shy

    It was a case of twice bitten, thrice shy. This week Shinzo Abe announced he will postpone next April’s planned 2pp increase in Japan’s sales tax until October 2019—a step the prime minister had previously sworn he would only take in a Lehman-scale crisis. Despite Abe’s protestations to the contrary at last weekend’s G-7 meeting, the world economy is facing no such meltdown. Nevertheless, deferring the tax hike makes sense. Previous increases in...

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    Gavekal Research

    Asian Plowshares Into Swords

    Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe invested time and prestige in a failed bid to supply Australia with 12 new attack submarines and service them for the next 50 years. It was announced yesterday that the approximate US$38bn contract was scooped by a rival French bidder due to its technical competence, but also after a strong lobbying effort by China which does not want to see a resurgent Japanese defense sector. Canberra’s decision represents a...

    0
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    Gavekal Japanese

    Japan's Genki Grandparents!

    Aged 94, Susumu Yamamoto thought about a career change, but he didn’t want to rush the decision. Two years later, he is still mulling it over. Meanwhile, his daughters are on his case for doing too much. Recently an argument broke out with his youngest daughter (aged 72). She took the duvet to the cleaners. He said he could have washed it himself. On top of all that, his eldest daughter (76) is nagging him to eat more vegetables. But Yamamoto-...

    0
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    Gavekal Japanese

    Japan’s Hydrogen game Changer

    Japan is often described as lacking domestic energy sources, but this is not quite fair. In addition to geothermic energy galore (108 volcanoes) it has untapped natural gas encased in sheets of ‘fire ice’ buried beneath the sea bed. Japan has spent years working on test production sites with the aim of moving to mass production. Such a commercial operation looks increasingly tenable in what could be an energy game-changer for Japan, just as...

    6
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    Gavekal Japanese

    When Beta Fades

    A week ago Haruhiko Kuroda surprised the market with a new and aggressive quantitative easing plan. In response most brokers surprised absolutely no-one with calls to ‘buy exporters, buy banks and buy real estate plays’. Of course, such trades might work for the macro tourists looking to give their capital a two-week sightseeing trip in Tokyo. Which brings to mind Charlie Munger’s words of wisdom of: ‘show me the incentives and I will show you...

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