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E.g., 15-12-2017
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    Gavekal Research

    Not All Bank Recaps Are Created Equal

    A month ago, India outlined a US$32bn plan to fix its publicly-controlled banks’ bad debt problem, sparking a more than 30% rally in their share prices. The plan remains under wraps, but the “round tripping” approach will see deposits lent to the government as recapitalization bonds and then injected back into banks as fresh capital. The question is whether India’s effort is credible enough for banks to both write off debt and have enough...

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    Gavekal Research

    Don’t Panic Over Chinese Equities

    The A-share equity market suffered its biggest one-day sell-off this year yesterday. But Chen Long argues that conditions in fact still remain benign for Chinese equity investors. The earnings outlook is favorable, the market is cheap by global standards, and international investors are beginning to trim their longstanding underweight.

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    Gavekal Research

    New York Seminar — November 2017

    At Gavekal's November seminar in New York Louis Gave, Arthur Kroeber, Cedric Gemehl and Anatole Kaletsky presented their macro outlooks and investment recommendations.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Towards A Single Asset Management Regime

    For the first time, China is to bring its highly heterogeneous RMB100trn asset management industry under a single regulatory umbrella. New rules published last week promise to increase transparency, curtail leverage and reduce complexity and hidden risks, especially in the booming business in so-called “wealth management products”. However, writes Chen Long, the draft regulations contain a number of omissions, ambiguities and loopholes which, if...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Decent Growth Risky For Bond Yields

    China’s economic data for October confirms that the moderate slowdown in growth is continuing as the housing cycle fades and government spending weakens, even as corporate earnings benefit from higher-than-expected inflation. Chen Long now sees an increasing risk for domestic bond yields in this combination, though it is bullish for equities.

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    Gavekal Research

    Reading China’s Financial Opening

    Over the next five years Beijing says it will progressively relax—and eventually scrap—the restrictions it currently imposes on foreign ownership of Chinese financial institutions. In practical terms, this is unlikely to prove a great game-changer for the industry, but it is still a significant move with positive implications for Chinese equities.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The View Into 2018

    The Chinese economy has experienced a nice cyclical recovery since 2016, but now most forecasters are expecting a loss of momentum in 2018. So how is this slowdown likely to play out? In this piece Chen Long lays out his case for a gradual cooling in both real and nominal growth that will not spook global markets.

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    Gavekal Research

    London Seminar — October 2017

    Anatole argued that the investment environment should remain upbeat given predictable monetary policy and a global cyclical upturn. Chen Long contended that China’s post-Party Congress slowdown should be gradual. Cedric made a bullish case for European equities, while Charles presented Gavekal’s latest artificial intelligence investment tools.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Good Kind Of Capital Outflow

    China’s government has been gradually restricting the ability of households and companies to move money out of the country, with one big exception: outbound portfolio investment is actually getting more support not less. As the Connect schemes with Hong Kong ease worries about capital flight, they have become the preferred channel for outflows.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Macro Update: Prolonging The Peak

    In our latest quarterly chartbook, Chen Long reviews the mixed signals from China’s economy and markets. While the cycle has peaked, the government has still found ways to prolong industrial reflation. But economic growth and bond yields will head down from here, though gradually, as the tightening of financial regulation has been well managed.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Short History Of Financial Deregulation

    Financial deregulation has seen a cartel of national state-owned banks give way to a bewildering array of local banks, non-bank lenders, wealth management products and loans disguised as investments. Regulators are tightening their grip, yet so long as Beijing demands high-speed growth, it will have to tolerate some financial misbehavior.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Three Sets Of Books

    China’s financial system has grown dizzyingly complex, but at its heart sit the banks, which provide most of the funds for shadow lending by non-banks. To assess the system’s risks, we need to understand the banks’ three credit books: their loans, their “investments” routed through non-banks, and their off-balance-sheet wealth management products.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: The Financial Labyrinth

    Is China’s financial system going to collapse? The speed of credit growth, the proliferation of financial institutions and financial products, and the chaotic and fragmentary data all make it reasonable to fret that China is on the verge of catastrophe. This issue of the CEQ is our attempt to bring clarity to this mystifying landscape.

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    Gavekal Research

    After The Renminbi Rally

    The last renminbi bears are throwing in the towel: with Chinese corporates unwinding the dollar holdings they have accumulated over the last two years, the renminbi is up strongly. Although the PBOC is for now happy to step back and let appreciation happen, there are still limits to how much it will want the trade-weighted exchange rate to rise.

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    Gavekal Research

    China’s Slow Exit From Reflation

    China’s first monthly data for the second half of 2017 showed growth momentum softening. While reflation peaked in the first half of 2017, the story is still that the exit from reflation will be very slow and gradual. Economic policy will be largely on hold in this period: tightening has peaked, but the switch to easing is still a long way away.

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    Gavekal Research

    Beijing’s New Renminbi Strategy

    Since 2016 China has pursued an opportunistic currency strategy, taking advantage of periods of US dollar weakness to steer a depreciation of the renminbi’s trade-weighted exchange rate. But over the last couple of months that policy has shifted, as it looks as if the authorities are satisfied with the renminbi’s current trade-weighted value.

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    Gavekal Research

    Signs China’s Tightening Has Peaked

    Official statements following the conclusion of Beijing’s National Financial Work Conference signal that the recent tightening cycle has now peaked and that market interest rates are likely to fall from current levels, argues Chen Long. The story remains that while Chinese reflation has peaked, the ensuing slowdown will be moderate and gradual.

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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research July Call

    Recent efforts to open up China's stock and bond markets have granted deeper access for foreign investors. In Tuesday's conference call Thomas Gatley outlined what MSCI's decision to include A-shares in its indexes means for investors, while Chen Long argued that the next great bond bull market may happen in China.

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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: The China Markets Opportunity

    The doors to China’s capital markets are opening wider, with MSCI adding A-shares to its indexes, and the Bond Connect program launching in Hong Kong. In this Strategy Monthly, Thomas Gatley and Chen Long explain how foreign investors should position themselves in Chinese bonds and equities in light of these new market-opening measures.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Macro Update: Surviving The Financial Crackdown

    In our latest quarterly chartbook, Chen Long assesses the effects of Chinese regulators’ surprising crackdown on the financial sector. Interbank rates and bond yields have jumped, but credit growth has slowed only modestly. While growth has clearly peaked and will slow further in the rest of 2017, a gradual slowdown still looks quite achievable.

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