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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Tightening That Dare Not Speak Its Name

    China’s central bank has raised short-term policy rates for the second time this year—while going to great lengths to avoid signaling an aggressive tightening. The central bank likely still hopes that a coming roll-over in producer price inflation will calm sentiment, and that other, non-monetary measures will help cool down the property market.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Debating Reflation And Tightening

    We expect only marginal and gradual tightening from the PBOC. But three factors could make it more hawkish: higher than expected inflation, rising financial risk, and a shift in the politics of growth.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: Healthcare—Crisis Or Opportunity?

    China’s growing economy has brought its people longer lives, but also a new set of health problems. Though the government is trying to improve coverage, change is happening slowly. So there is a growing opportunity for private companies to fill the gap. This issue of China Economic Quarterly investigates the nation’s health problems, and solutions.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Reflation That Just Won't Quit

    China’s latest data show the reflation that began in 2016 continued in early 2017: growth is accelerating and the housing market is very strong. Chen Long draws two conclusions from this. First, with construction supported the government will have no problem keeping growth stable in 2017. Second, a further tightening of policy is very likely.

    9
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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Reflation Gets A China Boost

    For the last three months, markets have been focused on “Trumpflation”. But the global reflation trade began long before Donald Trump’s November election, with China’s surprisingly strong growth rebound early last year. This suggests that China’s growth performance in 2017 will be a key factor in determining the sustainability of global reflation. In this edition of Gavekal’s Strategy Monthly, Arthur Kroeber and Chen Long argue that China’s...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A-Shares Ride An IPO Boom

    The state of initial public offerings is one of the Chinese stock market’s longest running embarrassments: regulators have been holding up IPO approvals for hundreds of firms for years now. But they are now finally picking up the pace, making it easier for younger, fast-growing firms to list—though full deregulation of IPOs is not on the agenda.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Three Risks To The Monetary Policy Outlook

    China’s central bank is striking a hawkish tone by pledging to curb speculation and leverage, but its actual tightening has been marginal and gradual. What might shift its stance to something tougher? In this piece, Chen Long evaluates three things that could push the PBOC to tighten more: inflation, financial risk, and the politics of growth.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Containing Capital Outflows

    China’s balance of payments show that 2016 was another big year for capital outflows, which accelerated in the second half. But Chen Long argues this pickup will not continue into 2017. Current outflows are not large enough to stop the central bank from pursuing its exchange-rate policy, which can be sustained for another couple of years.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Very Marginal Tightening

    Monetary policy is getting interesting as the Chinese New Year holiday approaches. The central bank has injected huge amounts of liquidity to the market, but it has also made a rare move to raise the rates of its lending facilities. In this piece, Chen Long explains the PBOC’s moves and why they don’t signal a hike in benchmark interest rates.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Dodging A Bullet In The Interbank Market

    In late December, China’s interbank market experienced its greatest turbulence since 2013. Though it was resolved quickly, the mini-crisis still offers some important lessons. Beijing’s technocrats did show good crisis management skills—but it’s also clear that weak links in the domestic financial system will continue to test those skills.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    The RMB: Steady As She Goes

    In the first three trading days of 2017, the renminbi jumped more than 1% against the US dollar. But this bullish start to the year does not signal a change of tack for China's policymakers. Here, Chen Long explains why Beijing’s strategy of managing the renminbi against a trade-weighted basket of currencies will not change in 2017.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Five Macro Questions For 2017

    For our first China research piece of the new year, we offer a guide to the economic outlook in the form of short answers to some big questions: Will China be as boring as consensus forecast imply? Will the central bank hike interest rates? Will the housing market correct sharply? Will it be a good year for Chinese equities? Will the labor market hold up?

    7
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Macro Update: Reflation Continues Into 2017

    In our latest quarterly chartbook, Chen Long assesses the outlook for China next year. Growth driven by industrial reflation should continue into early 2017, as private investment and consumption both improve. With inflation up and growth stable, monetary policy is tighter on the margin, which will likely lead to a downturn in housing sales.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Steady As She Goes (Despite Trump)

    China is still on track to maintain GDP growth of 6% or more in the run-up to the 19th Party Congress in late 2017. Despite threats of a trade war with the US, Trump’s election probably hands China some long-run strategic benefits

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: Xi Jinping’s China

    2017 will be a very political year for China. The short-term priority is a smooth economic run-up to the Communist Party Congress, when Xi Jinping will strengthen his grip on power. In the long term, questions are growing as to whether the Party is flexible enough to govern a dynamic society. This issue of CEQ assesses China’s political future.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Debt Restructuring Toolbox

    Debt restructuring transactions are finally starting to happen in China, after years of warnings about the dangers of rising corporate debt. Yet there is no sign of a repeat of the huge state-led bailouts of the late 1990s. There will be many smaller deals to help individual firms cut debt, but these won’t add up to an overall deleveraging.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Arthur Kroeber: A New Era Of Sino-US Relations

    While Donald Trump has threatened to slap huge tariffs on Chinese exports, Arthur thinks this would be an act of self-harm given the economic co-dependence between China and the US. In this video interview, he maps out the likely evolution of relations between the two countries in the years ahead.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Trump, Risk, And The Renminbi

    Will the election of Donald Trump prove to be a major “risk-off” event for the Chinese currency and financial assets? Trump’s policies do make it more likely the US dollar will strengthen, and thus that the renminbi will keep weakening. But the chance of an uncontrolled move in the currency is still low, and the stock market also looks insulated.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Equities Decouple From The Renminbi

    The renminbi fell to a six-year low of CNY6.78 to the US dollar this week, capping a -3% fall since June. In recent years, similar moves sparked turmoil in stock markets at home and abroad. Yet this time investors have largely ignored it and both A-share and H-share indexes have ripped higher. Why is a weak renminbi no longer a risk-off event?

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Household Debt: How Fast Can It Grow?

    Discussions about China’s debt usually focus on corporate and local government borrowing, but households have also become more important. The level of household debt is no longer low, and since 2015 it has become the major driver of credit growth. In this piece, Chen Long investigates the limits to China’s new embrace of household leverage.

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