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E.g., 11-12-2017
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    Gavekal Research

    Carthago Delenda Est

    Global geopolitics is characterized by the “land-based” empire of China challenging the dominant “maritime” empire of the United States according to Louis and Charles. What they cannot figure out is the seemingly contradictory responses of Washington to this well telegraphed challenge. In this piece they examine pressing challenges to American power and explore the investment consequences, which may come home to roost far quicker than most...

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Testing Europe’s Escape Velocity

    The eurozone has exited the emergency room and is looking to sustain a recovery that takes it back to rude health. T Last year’s Chinese stimulus helped spur the latest eurozone pickup and the worry is that recent weakness in both Chinese and German trade data points to an external weakening. So could a stronger euro and slowing China spark another setback?

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    China’s Slow Exit From Reflation

    China’s first monthly data for the second half of 2017 showed growth momentum softening. While reflation peaked in the first half of 2017, the story is still that the exit from reflation will be very slow and gradual. Economic policy will be largely on hold in this period: tightening has peaked, but the switch to easing is still a long way away.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Limits Of Magical Thinking

    A persistent American fantasy of hardliners is that threats of force will magically cause other countries to abandon their interests and cave in to US demands. The current occupant of the White House is taking this magical thinking to new heights in his approach to Asia. But thankfully, despite the dire headlines, the real-world impact is small.

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    Can The US Property Engine Fire Up?

    Two years ago banks started to make it harder for US construction firms to borrow and soon after activity began to fizzle. While blame has been pinned on skilled worker shortages and rising costs of both land and materials, KX and Will think financing was the key issue. The good news is that banks seem to be again loosening their purse strings.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Resurgence Of Walmart Man

    In July 2014, I wrote a piece looking at the fallout from poorer Americans getting poorer (see Poverty Matters For Capitalists). My basic point was that the consumer price index understated the loss of real income being suffered by non-supervisory workers. I showed this using my Walmart index, which is weighted 50% food, 30% shelter and 20% rent to reflect this group’s true consumption basket. Three years ago this population cohort faced a...

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    Finding Outperformance In Japan

    On Monday, the cabinet office in Tokyo is expected to announce that Japan’s economy grew at an annualized rate of around 2.5% in the second quarter. If it does, it will mark Japan’s sixth consecutive quarter of economic expansion, the longest period of uninterrupted growth since the mid-2000s, when prime minister Junichiro Koizumi was in power.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research August Call

    In this week's call Tom Miller and Udith Sikand presented their view on India's macroeconomic situation and opportunities for foreign investors. Tom outlined the broad macro fundamentals and assessed the Modi government's progress in reforming the economy. Udith presented the investment consequences, expecting a capex revival to begin as soon as next year.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Most Important Change And Its Natural Hedge

    I don’t usually quote mass murderers, but when I do, I usually fall back on Lenin’s quip that “there are decades when nothing happens, and weeks when decades happen”. Lenin was referring to the Russian Revolution which took place a hundred years ago and to this day still casts a long shadow. To some extent, the Russian Revolution, itself a bastard child of the first world war, crystallized the end of an era for Europe. Thereafter the world’s...

    8
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Oil Import Deregulation Put On Hold

    China’s market for gasoline, diesel and other oil products has gotten increasingly competitive since the government started allowing private-sector refiners to import their own crude oil. But the government has now put additional liberalization on hold, which will halt gains for independent refiners and benefit big state enterprises.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Love The Economy, Hate Economists

    Charles is proud of his data-driven approach to economic analysis and is not impressed with the methods applied by much of the modern economics profession. More to the point, he thinks that most modern economic remedies have negatively impacted the growth outlook and dulled investment performance.

    14
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    Gavekal Research

    Is The Whale Breaking Surface?

    Charles has often said that the impact of a market shock shows up with the same sort of delay as the effects of dynamite fishing. First the small fry float to the top, then the mid-size fish. Only later does the dead whale break surface. With that analogy in mind, Louis has long maintained that investors will not be able to call the end of the oil price slump with any confidence until they have seen major bankruptcies and/or consolidation among...

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Beijing’s New Renminbi Strategy

    Since 2016 China has pursued an opportunistic currency strategy, taking advantage of periods of US dollar weakness to steer a depreciation of the renminbi’s trade-weighted exchange rate. But over the last couple of months that policy has shifted, as it looks as if the authorities are satisfied with the renminbi’s current trade-weighted value.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Leading Europe Into Reflation

    The Czech National Bank has become the first central bank in Europe to raise interest rates in this cycle. Yesterday the CNB lifted its policy rate from 0.05% to 0.25%, its first rate hike since 2008. Where the Czechs are leading, others, including the European Central Bank, will follow—but in the case of the ECB, likely not for another two years or more.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Brexit Talks Don’t Matter

    The details of the Brexit talks between the British government and Brussels are far less important, argues Charles in this paper, than the blow Britain’s referendum vote has dealt to the technocratic principles which underpin the European Union’s power structure. The pillars of the temple are crumbling, and sooner or later the edifice must fall.

    14
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    Gavekal Research

    Energy Stocks, If Only As A Hedge

    A quick glance at our Gavekal TrackMacro application illustrates how the global equity environment remains benign: modest but accelerating growth, low inflation, solid corporate profits and low interest rates. In such an environment, why not load up on equities? Investors have clearly done just that in recent quarters. As one seasoned client put it in a recent meeting: “If central banks are not going to raise rates with German consumer...

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Lull In The Tourism Boom

    Chinese outbound tourism is having a rough 2017: growth in international travelers is down to about 6%, from 20%-plus growth in earlier years. So has something fundamental in the Chinese tourism story changed, or is this just a blip? In this piece, Ernan argues this slowdown is largely temporary, caused by events in key destinations in Asia.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Building A Bond Valuation Tool

    The “golden rule” of French Nobel laureate Maurice Allais states that over the long run, long term government bond yields always converge with the nominal structural growth rate of the economy. In this paper Charles sets out to build a government bond market valuation tool based on the Allais postulate.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Misleading Signal In US Auto Sales

    Trying to tease economic trends out of recent US data releases is a frustrating business. Take yesterday’s figures. Although the ISM manufacturing PMI ticked down a shade in July to come in a fraction below expectations, at 56.3 the number remained firmly in expansionary territory. On the other hand, two classic cyclical indicators of US economic health—construction spending and automobile sales—both came in weak.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: India — Poised For A Pickup

    India clearly offers one of the best long-term growth stories in the world today. In 2016 for the first time it added more to global nominal GDP growth than China. Demographics are favorable, opportunities for infrastructure- and housing-driven growth are abundant, and despite some hiccups the Modi government has done a good job of taming inflation and setting the country on a structurally sounder path. For investors, the problem is that Indian...

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