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E.g., 22-09-2018
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    Gavekal Research

    Malaysia’s 92-Year-Old Populist

    It is surely the most remarkable political comeback of recent history. At the tender age of 92, former prime minister of Malaysia Mahathir Mohamad won a shock victory in Wednesday’s general election, ousting from power the coalition he himself headed for 22 of the 61 uninterrupted years it ruled the country—ever since independence in 1957.

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    Gavekal Research

    Hardly A Game Changer For Oil

    While nobody could have been surprised by the full-scale commercial warfare launched against Iran by President Trump yesterday, his announcement raised more questions than answers. The most important question is whether this action will make the world safer or further destabilize Middle Eastern and global geopolitics. The second question is whether the US enforcement of sanctions will really be as tough as Trump’s belligerent rhetoric and the...

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  • Gavekal Dragonomics

    What’s Really At Stake In The US-China Rivalry

    It is still possible that the US and China will strike a deal to avert threatened tariffs. But as Arthur argues in this piece, any deal will be mostly cosmetic. The tension between the two is not mainly about trade, but about China’s challenge to US global dominance. The US will almost certainly keep trying to counter China’s efforts to gain power.

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    Gavekal Research

    What—Me Worry?

    What should most worry investors about the state of the US economy today? The answer is: “Total absence of worry”. That was my clear conclusion after a week in Los Angeles hobnobbing with the thousands of CEOs, financiers, technologists and politicians at the Milken Global Conference. An intoxicating cocktail of tax cuts, deregulation and record profits has transformed the post-crisis normalization of business confidence into uncritical euphoria.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Illusion Of Liquidity, And Its Consequences

    A decade ago the US corporate bond market was about half as big as it is today, yet bond dealers held about six times more inventory than they do today. In our latest Loser Report which focuses on assets to avoid, Louis worries that the next big financial accident could happen in this aggressively priced arena.

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    Gavekal Research

    Time To Stop Thinking

    In a long career spent trying to formulate reliable investment rules, here is one I have found to work time and again without fail. If two assets show no historical trend, and if in the past their relative price has always reverted towards its historical mean, then when that relative price reaches two standard deviations away from its mean, it is time to stop thinking and just play the mean reversion. Now is one of those times.

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    Gavekal Research

    EMs And The Oil Syndrome

    Having fallen more than -10% from their late January peak, emerging markets are looking shaky. Higher yields, a stronger US dollar and rising oil prices have all contributed to a tough environment. In the face of big current account deficits, Turkey and Argentina look properly imperiled, with some saying that their troubles point to a bigger problem for emerging economies. I disagree. Not all headwinds are created equal, and what matters for EMs...

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    Gavekal Research

    Next On The US-China Telenovela: Investment Curbs

    An unusually large group of senior American officials has landed in Beijing for two days of talks on the trade and technology dispute embroiling the US and China. There is no reason to think the mission will achieve much. And if it does manage to cobble together a temporary deal to forestall the tariffs the two countries have threatened against one another, it will do nothing to delay the next act in the drama: proposed restrictions on Chinese...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Seizing The Moment For Artificial Intelligence

    As the US and China try to position themselves for technological leadership, both are now focusing on artificial intelligence. In this piece, Andrew answers the questions of the moment: What is artificial intelligence anyway? Why does China seem to be doing so well in artificial intelligence? And how should we think about this US-China rivalry?

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    Gavekal Research

    Fade The US Dollar Rally

    If a week is a long time in politics, then three months is an eternity in the foreign exchange market. Three months ago, sentiment towards the US dollar reached a nadir after US Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin expressed his desire for “a weaker US dollar”. Over the following weeks, the US currency duly weakened. But since mid-April the dollar has staged a rally, with the DXY index gaining 3.5% as the market has noted the increase in US long...

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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Living With US-China Strategic Rivalry

    A gaggle of US cabinet officials are in Beijing this week for talks aimed at lowering the temperature on US-China trade relations. While there may be an agreement to temporarily delay the huge tariffs each side has threatened to impose on the other, there is no chance of bridging the real rift between the two countries, which arises from China's technological and geopolitical ambitions. A trio of aggressive strategies launched by Xi Jinping...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Punishing People, Not Institutions

    The strategy behind China’s financial overhaul is becoming clear. It is helping banks by allowing an extended transition to a new set of rules. But prosecutions of executives are also ramping up. This is the opposite of what some Western countries did after the 2008 crisis: people, not institutions, are paying the price for financial risk-taking.

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    Gavekal Research

    Why A Curve Inversion Matters

    Investors are increasingly obsessed about the flattening of the US yield curve, leading to talk of the dreaded “I” word. This is not surprising as inversions have usually been followed by a US recession and attendant equity bear market.

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    Gavekal Research

    The American Growth Dynamic

    It is clear from data released on Friday that the US economy remains set on an expansionary and inflationary trajectory. Growth in 1Q18 came in at a stronger-than-expected 2.3%, while the US employment cost index rose 2.8% YoY to a high for this cycle. Even as consumer spending comes off the boil, US firms, in what looks like a classic late-cycle pattern, are responding to bottlenecks by investing more in their capital stock. We continue to see...

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    Gavekal Research

    Europe’s Coiled Spring Currency

    There was a neat circularity to yesterday’s press briefing by Mario Draghi. The European Central Bank was happy to stick with its monetary accommodation as growth data had softened and the euro was pleasingly weaker. Hence, as German exporters go through one of their periodic bouts of angst and confidence readings pull back across the eurozone, the logic runs that the euro could now slide further. This would especially seem to be the case as...

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    Gavekal Research

    Portfolio Construction In The Time Of An Inflationary Reserve Currency

    In today’s Daily, Charles argued that the key focus of economic conflict between the US and China may end up being over currencies rather than trade spats. He advised investors to monitor the price of treasuries as expressed in gold to see how that struggle is playing out. In this piece, he tells unconstrained investors how to hedge a portfolio in light of the US dollar being subject to inflationary policymaking. Spoiler alert: the answer also...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Upcoming Monetary War, With Gold As An Arbiter

    When President Trump was recently asked if he was starting a war in traded goods with China, he countered that the US had lost that struggle 20 years ago. As the US retains a comparative advantage in technology, such arguments have led some to conclude that the world’s two biggest economies will fight their next economic battle in this new theater. That may be true, but for me the real fight will be less about trade than a struggle for dominance...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Constructive Make-Believe On The Korean Peninsula

    With North Korea suddenly seeming happy to negotiate with its old adversaries, some analysts reckon the regime is buckling under US pressure. Yanmei says this is wishful thinking. Kim Jong-un probably believes he has achieved nuclear deterrence—and he is most unlikely to relinquish it. China and South Korea just want to avoid a US military strike.

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    Gavekal Research

    Why India’s Growth Is Not Jobless

    India desperately needs to create jobs if it is not to squander what may be the biggest “demographic dividend” in economic history. On the face of things, it looks to be blowing that opportunity, as in recent years the size of the workforce has actually shrunk. In this piece, Tom argues that the raw data obscures a picture that while not ideal, is far better than it looks.

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    Gavekal Research

    Still Bond Bears

    Matching its 2013 peak, the world’s most-watched interest rate—the US 10-year treasury yield—yesterday touched 3%. Concerns are now high that it will soon move higher, perhaps much higher. For perspective, the US 10-year hit 3.75% in 2011, 4% in 2010 and 5% in 2007. In this cycle, we think yields will break above 3% and then march upwards. In short, we remain bond bears and continue to recommend keeping duration short. Today, we want to...

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