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    Gavekal Research

    Ready For A Further P/E Derating

    I see but through a glass darkly. Sometimes, however there are glimmers of light. Four months ago, in early December, I examined the signals being broadcast by the various investment rules I have long followed and concluded that: “While global markets have been stable for the past 18 months, we may soon be entering a period of greater instability.”

    6
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    Gavekal Research

    Following Yesterday’s Pullback

    Two weeks ago I looked back at Enron’s collapse in 2001 and asked whether a crash-and-burn at Tesla or Uber would be this cycle’s catalyst for a fundamental re-assessment of business models. But perhaps my sights were set too low, as this roll-over was triggered not by a cash-burning profligate flaming out, but by turmoil engulfing the Facebook gorilla, and by extension the likes of Google and Snap, which rely on “the user being the product”.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Navigating In Choppy Waters

    With its latest sell-off, the S&P 500 capped two months of volatility by moving officially into correction territory: down -10% from its January high, and below its 200-day moving average for the first time in two years. Is this the end of the long US equity bull market? In this edition of our Strategy Monthly, we offer three perspectives on how investors should position themselves in these more volatile times.

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    Gavekal Research

    Abenomics After Abe

    It’s been a rough few weeks, both for Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe and for the Japanese stock market. Reelected just five months ago, Abe is facing growing demands for his resignation after an influence-peddling scandal that has been bubbling away for the last year boiled over with leaks about an official cover-up. In response, Abe’s approval rating has slumped towards 30%, traditionally a level from which Japanese prime ministers struggle...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Can The EM Run Last?

    In this video interview Joyce discusses why profits should drive a maturing cycle in EMs that increasingly favors commodity-focused markets outside of Asia, and the risks to such a benign scenario.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Can EMs Survive A Trade War And Keep Thriving?

    A US-China trade war would disrupt trade, likely drive up inflation and potentially spark a general risk-off move in markets. This scenario would be pretty terrible for emerging markets, but Joyce reckons it is a tail risk and the general outlook remains decent. In this chartbook, she reviews EMs' vulnerability to a trade bust and explains why profits should drive a maturing cycle that increasingly favors commodity-focused markets outside...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Macro Update: Centralization Amid Conflict

    In our latest chartbook, Chen Long outlines a relatively positive cyclical economic picture for China, with steady macro policy, strengthening financial regulation, and further political centralization. The risks to this outlook are tightening property policies, a local government funding squeeze and the looming threat of a US-China trade conflict.

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    Don’t Fret About Libor

    A disproportionate increase in Libor relative to other benchmark short term rates over recent months has got many observers flustered. In this concise paper, Will and KX dig down to the cause of the increase, and explain what it does and doesn’t mean for portfolio investors.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    On Protectionism

    As the US toughens up its negotiating stance on trade, it seems that ghosts from the Great Depression haunt the land. The men of Davos can be heard to intone gravely that President Donald Trump is aping Herbert Hoover, and as in the 1930s, the global economy may go into a tailspin. I am struck that our cherished elites have discovered a form of government intervention that they do not like, especially given their support for so many other “...

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Pain Of Power Producers

    The rebound in commodity prices since 2016 has been a boon for much of China’s industrial sector—but coal-burning power plants have been big losers. Coal prices cannot go much higher without causing serious financial distress. This means that policy should now be shifting to favor power producers, by ensuring coal prices do not climb further.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Why Aren’t Bond Investors Panicking?

    Once again, the volatility that rocked global financial markets in recent days was at least as interesting for what it didn’t tell us as what it did. Amid growing protectionism, rising rates and fiscal irresponsibility in the US government, the biggest and most important financial market of all—the US treasury market—isn’t bothered.

    7
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Trade Wars: A China Expert Roundtable

    Last week’s sharp equity market sell-off followed the US effectively threatening China with a trade war. In this report, Arthur, Long and Andrew address China’s capacity to strike back and explore what it means for the relationship between the world’s two biggest economies.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Farewell My Lovely Bull Market

    No doubt market pundits will go on discussing the trigger of last week’s sell-off in equity markets and debating its implications ad nauseam. But whatever the proximate cause of the latest risk-off, it is looking increasingly as if the uncomplicated, low volatility bull-market-in-everything that prevailed through much of last year is now no more than a pleasant memory. With markets apparently intent on retesting the lows set in early February,...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Trade Wars: Advantage China

    In the US-China trade war, China is skillfully playing Go while the US is playing tic-tac-toe, badly. Arthur analyses the announcement of US$60bn worth of tariffs by the US on Chinese imports and finds the US flailing without a firm strategy. But behind the news, a dangerous consensus has emerged among America’s elites which holds that China’s rise comes at the US’s expense, and must be checked.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    London Seminar — March 2018

    In our seminar in London this week Charles pondered the investment consequences of the US moving back into an inflationary period. Tom discussed Chinese politics in light of Xi Jinping’s elevation. Cedric presented on how investors can best benefit from the diversity of the European economy. Anatole explained why the long-running global bull market is likely to continue, but also where the risks are buried.

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    Gavekal Research

    A (Slightly) Different Wicksellian Analysis

    In developing “Wicksellian” theory and applying it to portfolio management, readers may have noticed that Charles and Will Denyer have plowed slightly different furrows. The aim of this piece is to clarify points of agreement and highlight differences in their methodology. In so doing, Charles hopes to illuminate both approaches and help readers to navigate a subject that is fairly central to Gavekal research.

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    Gavekal Research

    Focus On Corporate Yields, Not Policy Rates

    There were no big surprises at yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting, but in offering a slightly more hawkish tone, policymakers have amped up market anxiety. I must admit to not being in this crowd, for the perhaps heretical observation that the future of this bull market may not be decided at the Fed.

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    Gavekal Research

    Don’t Wade Into Treasuries

    Leading up to today’s Federal Reserve meeting, long-dated treasuries have slipped back into their trading range. There are two reasons to think this offers a good opportunity to “buy the dip”. First, global growth has eased off as shown by our diffusion index of OECD leading indicators, which tends to lead year-on-year changes in 10-year treasury yields by about four months. Second, investors overreacted to January’s spike in US wage growth data...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Giving Up Value Investing For Lent

    A client recently told me that he had wanted to give up “value investing” for Lent. Unfortunately, his priest pointed out that this was like forgoing boiled spinach as Lent commemorates Christ’s 40 days in the desert and requires doing without something that feels good: think of giving up Amazon, Nvidia or Tencent (at least until this week) for energy stocks, Japan and emerging market financials. Our client chose self-flagellation and stuck with...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Beyond Anti-Corruption

    China’s legislature has approved the creation of a national “supervision” system, an arm of government equal to the executive, legislative and judicial branches that is charged with overseeing the vast public sector. As Yanmei explains, the new system transforms Xi Jinping’s signature anti-corruption crusade into something even more ambitious.

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