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E.g., 16-10-2018
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    Gavekal Research

    The Politics (And Economics) Of A Multi-Polar Europe

    This weekend’s election in Bavaria saw voters deal parties in Germany’s ruling coalition a bruising rebuff that further erodes Merkel’s authority and effectively kills off Macron’s plan for the EU to integrate at a faster pace. In light of such a changed environment, Nick and Cedric introduce a new framework to explain how political bargaining will work in an increasingly multi-polar Europe.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Softly, Softly, Mr. Draghi

    Last week was an ugly one for equity markets on both sides of the Atlantic. But there was a crucial difference. US stocks are down from an all-time high set as recently as last month, with the S&P500 closing on Friday above (just) its 200-day moving average. In contrast, eurozone equities have been trending continuously lower ever since the end of January.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Time To Rebalance Into Equities

    The S&P 500 is down almost -7% in six days, the biggest drawdown since the -10% decline in the first quarter. It is now below its 200-day moving average, for the first time since April 2nd. Will it bounce back, or is a US equity bear market now upon us? I would bet on the former, but not too aggressively.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Hidden Leverage In Hong Kong

    Last month, for the first time in 12 years, Hong Kong banks raised their prime lending rates. This increase, coming at a time when the Hong Kong government has pledged to boost housing supply, has prompted fears that rising mortgage rates and falling home prices could expose a dangerous accumulation of hidden leverage in the local property market.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call October 2018

    In this month’s Research Conference Call Louis-Vincent Gave examined the present bad tidings from markets and asked whether the global bull market faces a denouement. Anatole Kaletsky argued that this sell-off will likely prove to be a temporary setback for emerging markets and that the global bull market may have further to run. However, he warned that the outcome will depend heavily on where the oil price goes from here.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Bonds' Failure To Rally

    Given all the bad news for markets this year, one would be forgiven for thinking that US treasuries and German bunds would have been a good investment. But even as emerging markets have sold off and the US dollar has risen against almost every emerging market currency out there, US treasuries (and to a lesser extent bunds) have been an absolute dog of an investment.

    4
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Building The Northern Powerhouse

    After a decade of splurging on infrastructure projects, China’s local governments are now having to cut back. But Beijing has continued to pour money into centrally supported initiatives, particularly Xi Jinping’s pet project for developing the region surrounding Beijing. In this piece, Tom reports on how this northern megaproject is progressing.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The EM Value Question

    After a grim seven-month sell-off, it is natural to ask whether emerging markets now offer attractive value. Since its January peak, the MSCI emerging markets index has fallen -22%. The corollary has been a deep derating, which has left EM equities trading below their long term mean P/E ratios. However, a healthy dose of caution is warranted.

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    Why I Love The Euro

    By now surely almost everyone, except perhaps Jacques Delors and Jean-Claude Trichet, must accept that the euro is the greatest monetary mistake governments have imposed on their unsuspecting populations since then Chancellor of the Exchequer Winston Churchill took Britain back onto the gold standard in 1925.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Beijing Is Aiming At Stabilization, Not Stimulus

    On Sunday the PBOC announced that it will cut the bank reserve requirement by 100bp, its third cut since April. While the authorities are accelerating the pace of monetary easing, and are prepared to tolerate greater exchange rate volatility as a consequence, Beijing’s easing measures are aimed at stabilizing the domestic economy, not stimulating activity in response to a trade-war-induced slump.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Bottoming Out In France

    It has been a tough summer for the French economy, and a difficult rentrée—as the French call September’s return to classes at the start of the school year—for the government of president Emmanuel Macron. France’s growth rates have fallen of a cliff this year, with GDP growth falling to just 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the first and second quarters, from an average of 0.7% in 2017. And after household spending actually contracted in 2Q, consumer...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Still Not Interested In US Bonds

    Wednesday saw the second biggest sell-off in US bonds since November 10, 2016, immediately after the US presidential election. The 10-year treasury yield jumped 11bp to 3.16%, its highest since 2011. However, investors should be wary of treating this as a buying opportunity, for a number of reasons.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Are We Still In A Bull Market?

    At the start of the year, markets seemed poised for a rotation out of US equities into non-US assets. In fact, US equities and cash are the only assets to have delivered positive returns this year. Louis examines the reasons why and concludes that portfolio managers should stay defensive, while looking for buying opportunities in oversold emerging markets, and in European assets in non-euro countries such as the UK, Sweden and Switzerland.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Italy’s Inevitable Endgame

    Just over a year ago, with the optimism towards eurozone stock markets, and Italy in particular, riding high, I wrote a paper expressing the view that none of the eurozone’s underlying problems, nor Italy’s, had been solved. One year later, the situation is now looking very dangerous indeed.

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    How Demographics Are Shaping China's Future

    Where is China heading as it undergoes demographic change of unprecedented speed and scale? In this chartbook, Ernan offers a comprehensive guide to the unfolding transformation of the nation’s population, focusing on changes in family-planning policy, the implications of an aging society, and the shifting patterns of migration.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    New Nafta Clears The Way For A China Fight

    The good news is that after months of posturing, President Donald Trump’s administration has cut a deal for a new Nafta, following July's hasty agreement with the EU to defer car tariffs. Trade war on all fronts may now be off the agenda, but conflict with China over trade, investment, technology and geopolitical dominance will only escalate.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    More Trouble Ahead For Italian Yields

    The market gave an unequivocal two thumbs down to Italy’s budget deficit forecast announced on Friday. In proposing a deficit target for each of the next three years of 2.4% of GDP, finance minister Giovanni Tria was perceived to have bowed to pressure from Italy’s populist coalition for spending increases and tax cuts, and to have relegated debt reduction to a back seat. In response, Italy’s 10-year government bond yield jumped 26bp to 3.14%,...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Catching Up In Chips

    Technology is at the heart of China’s trade conflict with the US, and no technology is more critical than semiconductors. So as the US moves to block its access to technology, China is doubling down on its drive to build up a domestic semiconductor industry. In this piece, Dan lays out the reasons why China’s drive will eventually succeed.

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    The Big Lesson From Argentina

    One of the reasons this summer’s sell-off in Argentinian debt was so vicious was that few international banks these days are willing to make markets in such “exotic” bonds, and even fewer are prepared to hold a substantial inventory. As a result, when foreign investors rushed for the exit, there was no market. But as Louis explains in this paper, the problem is hardly unique to Argentina. Markets a lot closer to home could face similar trouble.

    8
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    Gavekal Research

    The Severity Of India’s Rout

    It has been a torrid month for Indian markets. Equities have tanked by -7%, the rupee has dropped to all-time lows, and a new crisis is emerging in the financial sector. Liquidity is tightening in the money markets, threatening the survival of several non-bank financial companies and raising the prospect of contagion risk that could spill over to the rest of the financial system and lead to a broader economic slowdown. The rout in emerging...

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