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E.g., 25-02-2018
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    Gavekal Research

    A Regime Change For Oil?

    Every US or global recession in the past 50 years has been preceded by a doubling or more of oil prices, but not every doubling of oil prices has been followed by recession. While even US$70/bbl probably does not pose a serious risk to the world economy, any rise above US$70 could spark a combination of inflationary pressure and reduced demand that proves lethal to global financial conditions and growth.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Chinese Consumer: Outlook & Trends 2017

    In our annual review of the Chinese consumer, Ernan outlines the short-term outlook and longer-term trends in household spending. This chartbook explains why consumption growth has been a bit disappointing in 2017, why the outlook for 2018 is better, what are the drivers of consumption upgrading, and how the transition to online is playing out.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Bull Market And The Yield Curve

    Keeping up with a runaway bull is no easy task. Which may explain why so many investors remain unenthusiastic participants: the market is old and increasingly unattractive, but holding back could cost them their careers. Yet, the upward march of global equity markets continues relentlessly (for reasons reviewed in recent articles. Today, some 84% of markets around the world are up over the past 12 months in local currency terms. Historically,...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Not All Bank Recaps Are Created Equal

    A month ago, India outlined a US$32bn plan to fix its publicly-controlled banks’ bad debt problem, sparking a more than 30% rally in their share prices. The plan remains under wraps, but the “round tripping” approach will see deposits lent to the government as recapitalization bonds and then injected back into banks as fresh capital. The question is whether India’s effort is credible enough for banks to both write off debt and have enough...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Don’t Panic Over Chinese Equities

    The A-share equity market suffered its biggest one-day sell-off this year yesterday. But Chen Long argues that conditions in fact still remain benign for Chinese equity investors. The earnings outlook is favorable, the market is cheap by global standards, and international investors are beginning to trim their longstanding underweight.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Fake Brexit? Or No Brexit?

    The British economy since the Brexit referendum is often likened to the suicide jumper who leaps off a 20-storey building, shouting “so far, so good” as he falls past the 10th floor. This comparison is unfair to suicides. The real message about economic performance from the government’s annual budget statement yesterday was “so far, so bad”. While a minority of economists and investors—plus a large majority of Conservative politicians—share...

    10
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    Gavekal Research

    New York Seminar — November 2017

    At Gavekal's November seminar in New York Louis Gave, Arthur Kroeber, Cedric Gemehl and Anatole Kaletsky presented their macro outlooks and investment recommendations.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Investing For Constrained Insurers

    At Gavekal we have a sizable number of European Union insurance companies among our clients. Over the last three months, I have visited more than a few of them to outline my current investment recommendations, for example that investors should buy the Japanese stock market. Typically in these meetings, the investors have listened carefully and then regretfully shaken their heads, saying: “I’m afraid we can’t do it—for regulatory reasons”.

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Mixed Report From Steel Country

    This winter's anti-pollution campaign in north China is for real, but will have a mixed impact on the steel industry. The campaign also involves a suspension of many construction projects, which will reduce demand. Rosealea's recent field trip to the steel hub of Tangshan suggests both the supply and demand cuts are beginning to bite.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Towards A Single Asset Management Regime

    For the first time, China is to bring its highly heterogeneous RMB100trn asset management industry under a single regulatory umbrella. New rules published last week promise to increase transparency, curtail leverage and reduce complexity and hidden risks, especially in the booming business in so-called “wealth management products”. However, writes Chen Long, the draft regulations contain a number of omissions, ambiguities and loopholes which, if...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Dodging Late-Cycle Refinancing Risk

    By most generally accepted metrics, the US economy is in the late stages of its cycle and any further overheating raises the chances of a recession. The issue is really one of timing. Will Denyer’s Wicksellian model and my US business cycle indicator are both flashing orange rather than red, suggesting that the US is edging towards the recession frontier, but not yet at it. We have both advised investors to dial back on US risk, but are not much...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Who Needs A Government?

    What would it take to make you put more risk on the table in the final month of a year that has generally produced decent investment returns? It helps to have a synchronized global economic recovery that relies on multiple engines of growth and a US-tested monetary policy framework that seems to work as advertised. Yet the potential for disappointment, starting with US tax reform, appears to be growing. Add to that list an outbreak of political...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    How Much Slack In The Eurozone?

    It is a core contention of the bullish view on Europe espoused by Anatole and Cedric that the eurozone’s recovery is running four or five years behind the US economic cycle and that there is still plenty of slack left in the eurozone economy. But is there really as much as the bulls believe?

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    A Turkish Vortex

    For a country that relies on the kindness of strangers to fund its economy, Turkey, under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has been going out of its way to alienate allies and capital providers. Its relationship with the US has been on a downward trajectory for months and things are not much better with the European Union. This matters because the pieces are in place for a classic balance of payments and financial crisis in Turkey. This much is clear from...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Asset Allocation For The Global Bull Market

    On Monday Anatole outlined his fundamental reasons to believe that the world is enjoying a global bull market that still has years to run. Today he reviews the investment recommendations that flow from his thesis, and examines how investors can best play the unprecedented divergence of the US business cycle from the cycles in Europe and the emerging markets.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Living With A Nuclear North Korea

    A special envoy of Chinese president Xi Jinping will head to North Korea in what is being billed as a gesture of solidarity and friendship between the two countries’ communist parties. Coming just days after Donald Trump’s visit to the region, the move appears to give the lie to Trump’s assertion that he successfully convinced Xi to “use his great economic influence” to press North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons.

    4
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Decent Growth Risky For Bond Yields

    China’s economic data for October confirms that the moderate slowdown in growth is continuing as the housing cycle fades and government spending weakens, even as corporate earnings benefit from higher-than-expected inflation. Chen Long now sees an increasing risk for domestic bond yields in this combination, though it is bullish for equities.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Too Much Forward Guidance?

    It should be an ideal environment for equity investors. Europe yesterday published stronger than expected growth figures for the third quarter, with German GDP expanding 2.8% YoY, and even laggard Italy growing 1.8%. That performance raises the possibility of faster earnings growth even as the European Central Bank is proposing to stretch out its stimulative asset purchases through the third quarter of next year and keep interest rates in...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Consequences Of Saudi Arabia

    Our new monthly Loser Report aims to identify things that investors should avoid, whether countries, sectors, themes or asset classes. In this second instalment Louis looks at the tumult affecting Saudi Arabia and assesses the ricochet effect across the Middle East and beyond. He wonders whether regional currency pegs could be set to topple and whether a major industry centered in Europe and the US could be a major victim of the shakeout.

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    Gavekal Research

    Brexit, The Pound And UK Stocks

    When it comes to Brexit, I suspect that one of the few things about which Anatole and I agree is that the negotiations between London and Brussels have so far bordered on the farcical, and that the internal squabbling within the UK’s governing Conservative Party has hardly been conducive to raising the tone. Beyond that we part company. Anatole believes the Brexit talks are approaching a critical juncture for investors in UK assets—a view he...

    3
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