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E.g., 24-05-2017
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: The State Sector’s New Clothes

    In this issue of the CEQ, we take a close look at state-owned enterprises, which lie at the heart of Xi Jinping's strategy for restoring China to greatness. The goal of Xi’s recent policies is clear: to strengthen SOEs and make them more effective instruments of macro management at home, and more powerful agents of national interests abroad.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Villains Or Victims? The Role Of SOEs In China’s Economy

    State-owned enterprises are often blamed for China’s excess capacity, but private firms are the bigger culprits. The real problem is that the government now forces SOEs to act as economic stabilizers, at high cost. This makes them an ever-growing liability to the state.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    State Enterprise Reform: Missing In Action

    In 2013, the Third Plenum Decision promised bold reform of the SOEs, to diversify their shareholding and improve their financial performance. Nearly three years on, little remains of that agenda beyond a conflicting jumble of vague directives.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Return Of The Line Ministries

    In the 1990s, Zhu Rongji broke up state-owned conglomerates, to spur efficiency through competition. Now Xi Jinping’s SOE reform aims to bring those conglomerates back to life. The effort will be spearheaded by Xiao Yaqing, whose ambition to turn the state aluminum company into a global metals giant foundered, but who is now the bureaucrat in charge of all central SOEs.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Stability Above All

    The government seeks to keep both GDP growth and the exchange rate as steady as possible ahead of the Communist Party Congress scheduled for the fall of 2017. It may succeed, but probably at the cost of further delaying its structural reform program.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Future Of China’s Oil Demand

    China’s demand for oil—unlike its need for other commodities—will continue to grow, thanks mainly to greater use of automobiles. Imports, though, will be more volatile, and determined largely by how fast the country tries to fill its strategic reserves, and how quickly refiners adapt to changing consumption patterns.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Long March To Europe

    China’s investment in Europe is surging, as Chinese firms step up their M&A efforts and put more money into infrastructure ventures. European authorities must do a more active job of weighing the economic benefits of this investment against the political risks.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Making Sense Of The Economic Policy Mess

    Xi Jinping’s economic policy seems like a mass of confusion. This is only because he has been coy about stating his true aim: to make the state sector as strong as possible.

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    Gavekal Research

    A-Shares: The Food Is Terrible, And Such Small Portions

    The decision by MSCI not to include China’s onshore A-share market in its Emerging Markets index should have come as no surprise. Despite real progress, there are still regulatory roadblocks to inclusion that have yet to be dismantled. In any case, the resulting fund flows into the A-share market would be smaller than many observers expect.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Never Do On Monday What You Wish You’d Done On Friday

    The first rule of bear markets is never to do on Monday what you wish you had done on Friday. During bear markets, the constant stream of negative stories from the media leads to a build-up of anxiety among investors, anxiety that pours out first thing on Monday morning on trading floors everywhere.

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Capex Lacks All Conviction

    China’s latest debt-driven stimulus has stabilized growth, but the benefits have been narrow: outside infrastructure and real estate, private investment has not picked up at all. Total investment growth will be higher in 2016, but a renewed slowdown of capital spending in 2017 is very likely, as companies adjust to the end of the housing boom.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    South China Sea Risks

    In the next few weeks the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague will likely rule in favor of the Philippines in its dispute with China over territorial claims in the South China Sea. Beijing’s reaction will show to what extent China is prepared to defy international law to defend what it claims are “core interests”.

    5
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Housing Cycle Is Aging Rapidly

    The latest up-cycle in China’s housing sales has probably reached its peak. Major cities saw a marked step-down in sales growth in May, and absent major new stimulus national data will follow suit. Housing sales are still on pace for full-year growth of over 10%, but will slow to single digits later in 2016, and 2017 will see a deeper correction.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    How Fast Is China’s Debt Really Growing?

    The latest debate about Chinese statistics centers on debt: are the figures capturing the size of the latest stimulus? Official credit growth is now 12-13%, but total credit is actually rising by 16-18% due to government debt and new forms of shadow finance. Yet regardless of the exact measure, China’s national leverage is still rising rapidly.

    14
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    Gavekal Research

    Reduced Chance Of Renminbi Storms

    The recent strength of the dollar has pushed the renminbi back down to the lows of January. And the renminbi could make new lows if Fed rate hikes trigger a run-up in the dollar—a big if, with the dollar still stuck in a trading range. But such moves are unlikely to trigger anything like the global volatility caused by previous depreciations.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Gavekal Monthly: Risks For Equities—Populism And The Dollar

    Even as markets nudge higher, investors are unnerved by a rising tide of populist politics whose tangible expression will be tested on June 23, when UK voters must choose between Brexit or a less than perfect status quo inside the European Union. Investors are also concerned that the US dollar will strengthen further as the Federal Reserve mulls the question of whether to raise interest rates. In this monthly our writers weigh these big issues...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Risk In The Service Sector's Rise

    The rising share of services in China’s GDP is often touted as a positive change to a more sustainable structure. But this change is less positive than it appears, since the fastest-growing part of the service sector in recent years has been finance. The rapid financialization of the economy is a process that increases rather than reduces risk.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    How Much Geopolitical Risk In Asia?

    With the global economy in the doldrums and most asset markets stuck in neutral, the last thing that is needed is a trade war or an armed confrontation in the world’s most vibrant region, East Asia. The risk of either is low, but inching up.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Despite The Bounce, Housing Has Peaked

    The rebound in China’s housing sales early this year raises the obvious question of whether we were too quick to proclaim the peak in housing demand. Housing sales in 2016 are indeed on track to surpass 2013, but this is a stimulus-driven bounce. The long-term trend still points to a 10-20% decline in annual construction volume by 2025.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Migrant Housing Solution

    In hundreds of smaller cities around China, rows of apartment blocks lie unsold. Can this inventory ever be absorbed? The government hopes migrant workers, long too poor to urban property, will be part of the solution. On a recent trip to southwest China, I did find signs that migrants are becoming a factor at the low end of the housing market.

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