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E.g., 29-07-2017
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Retirement Policy Conundrum

    The working-age population is shrinking and growing older, jeopardizing economic growth prospects. One solution would be to make people work longer: the average retirement age is 54, the lowest in the world. But such a goal conflicts with local governments’ desire to manage layoffs in excess-capacity sectors by offering early retirement.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Actually, China Can Innovate

    Can Chinese firms innovate, and will China produce more branded, globally competitive firms like its Huawei? The answers from the authors of these three books are a unanimous yes on both counts. The verdicts are based on substantial first-hand research and fly in the face of much (less well founded) “China cannot innovate” writing in recent years.

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    Gavekal Research

    The End Of A Bubble?

    Ask three economists for the definition of a financial bubble, and you will be lucky to get fewer than four different answers. Even in our little shop, we like to make distinctions between bubbles in productive assets (US railroads, the internet, fiber optic cables, shale gas wells...) and bubbles in unproductive assets (gold, tulips, Japanese land, Florida condos…). We also like to make distinctions on how bubbles are financed: equity (good) or...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    What Happens When Growth Disappoints Again?

    The panic over China’s currency in early 2016 feels like ancient history. Since then, worries about the economy have largely receded from market concerns. But China’s business cycle peaked in the first half of the year, is now clearly slowing and will likely fail to reach its growth target in early 2017. How will the world react when this happens?

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    Gavekal Research

    A Free Hedge In Hong Kong

    Cost effective hedges are getting increasingly hard to find. However, the US dollar-Hong Kong dollar forward market offers a cost-free hedge against global volatility, explains Joyce, with 12-month forwards likely to move from their current discount to a handsome premium over spot in the event of a general risk-off move.

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    Gavekal Research

    A Better G-20 Communiqué

    Another year, another G-20, another yawn. Though the group of the world’s 20 biggest economies was useful in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, it has since degenerated into another global drawing room where leaders explain to one other how the world would be a better place if only it were a better place. This was a missed opportunity.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Video: Is China At A Crisis Point?

    Fresh off the publication earlier this year of his book on China, Arthur in this video interview explains China’s long-term economic development strategy before zooming in to answer the key questions that currently vex investors, namely, the trajectory of growth and the potential for a severe financial crisis.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Who Is Buying Chinese Bank Shares?

    Few segments of global equity markets have been more reviled in recent years than the shares of China’s big state banks. As corporate debt levels in China ballooned, especially among state-owned enterprises, and economic growth slowed, international investors shied away from the H-shares of state banks listed in Hong Kong, fearing an almighty accumulation of unrecognized bad loans on their balance sheets. This caginess was reflected in bank...

    7
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    Gavekal Research

    The Gavekal Monthly: How Long Can The Rally Last?

    Investors enjoyed a surprisingly upbeat summer with the World MSCI close to an all-time high and emerging markets continuing to benefit disproportionately. Yet with the Federal Reserve sounding increasingly hawkish, earnings looking soft and political uncertainty remaining the order of the day, this Gavekal Monthly focuses on threats to the current benign market mood.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Pause In The Bond Bull Market

    The summer rally in the Chinese domestic bond has been strong, but now may be due for a pause. While Chinese government bonds certainly remain attractive over the medium term, they will probably range trade for the next three to six months until the central bank is ready to let policy interest rates take the next step down.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Playing The Game

    The Olympic Games may be over, but Chinese enthusiasm for sports and a healthier lifestyle is still going strong. Participation in sports has steadily risen in recent years, driven by higher incomes, a changing culture and a more supportive government. Higher-income Chinese people are, like their peers abroad, ever more focused on their health.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Milestones On A Different Road

    The latest surge in China’s outward investment is not driven by state firms following strategic dictates—the Belt-and-Road has yet to gain traction—but by the private sector. The key question now is how long rich countries will put up with big inflows of Chinese money while their own firms are shut out of the best parts of China’s economy.

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  • Gavekal Dragonomics

    When Will Monetary Policy Get Interesting Again?

    China’s monetary policy hasn’t been exciting lately: the PBOC has not moved benchmark interest rates since October 2015, instead keeping interbank rates stable. But as Mervyn King said, a successful central bank should be boring. This quiet can last a bit longer: the PBOC is unlikely to cut rates until 2017, when growth comes under more pressure.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    A New—But Pricey—Market

    The last big barrier to investment in onshore Chinese equities is to be dismantled. Yesterday China’s cabinet approved the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Connect scheme. When the new link goes live, international investors will have free access to 80% of China’s onshore market capitalization, though the Shenzhen-listed stocks have eye-watering valuations.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Housing Takes A Breather; More Stress On The Way

    July was a weak month for China’s economy, as investment, industrial production and retail sales all slowed. An important exception was the property market, where sales ticked up and buyer sentiment seems strong. Nonetheless, housing activity will continue to slow over the rest of the year, if at a gentler pace than the plunge in May and June.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Car Sales: Plenty Of Gas In The Tank

    With heavy industry in the doldrums and the golden age of housing long gone, it’s getting harder to spot areas of sustained growth in China’s economy. An important bright spot is the automotive sector: while the recent breakneck pace of car sales will slow, the value of new car sales is likely to keep growing faster than GDP for the next decade.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Better Indicator Of Investment

    Growth in fixed-asset investment is now the lowest it has been in the 12-year history of the data. But FAI is a very messy indicator, and increasingly inconsistent with the national accounts. Out of frustration, I have built a simple model to track investment growth in national-accounts terms—gross fixed capital formation—on a monthly basis.

    4
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Temptation Of Early Retirement

    China's workers retire young—at age 54 on average, a decade earlier than in many European welfare states. The central government is now pushing hard to extend retirement ages to keep pension costs under control. But local governments are resisting, hoping to keep using early retirement to manage redundant workers in excess-capacity industries.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The EM Equity Question

    Despite this year’s strong run-up, there remain good reasons to stick with emerging market assets. The twin impact of collapsed borrowing costs amid a renewed global hunt for yield, and greatly reduced exchange rate volatility has been the ideal environment for EM yield curve flattening trades.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Profits Follow Housing Up, And Down

    China’s industrial profits bounced back to 6.2% growth in the first half, a stronger than expected recovery. The drivers are a boom in metals driven by the housing rebound, and continued gains in consumer sectors. But the metals boom is a temporary one, so after a couple more quarters of gains, a renewed down-cycle is likely in early 2017.

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