E.g., 22-07-2017
E.g., 22-07-2017
We have found 1598 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: Italy's Constitutional Referendum

    Nick presents what's at stake in Italy's upcoming constitutional referendum, and what it could mean for the European Union

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Politics Of Italy's Referendum

    Stefano Capacci On The Politics Of Italy's Referendum

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Euro And Mean Reversion

    Among my long-standing decision rules is one that generally proved reliable in the past. If two developed and open market economies trade freely with each other, then over the long run the return on invested capital in each economy will tend to be the same. In turn, this implies that over the long run, the ratio of total returns from each stock market will exhibit no trend in common currency terms. This makes intuitive sense—if one market...

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Ripples In The Eurodollar Market

    The Eurodollar market is making waves. While most benchmark interest rates around the world have been stable or softening, US dollar Libor has bucked the trend. Over the last seven weeks three-month Libor has climbed by almost 20bp to a shade over 0.8%. Meanwhile the TED spread, which effectively measures interbank credit risk by tracking the spread between Eurodollar rates and three-month US Treasury bill yields, has shot to its widest since...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Eurozone Equities Ride Again

    Eurozone equities have been sucked higher in the post-Brexit global rally, but with earnings showing a mild pick-up and fears of a populist political contagion fading, the hope is that a 15 month downtrend has been broken. On a technical level the MSCI EMU’s 200-day moving average has flattened out nicely, and with the DAX on Tuesday hitting a high for the year, German stocks look as if they could break out. As to whether the broader market can...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Behind The BoE’s Positive Thinking

    Yesterday the Bank of England rolled out the artillery it plans to deploy against the UK’s fast-materializing post-referendum slowdown. Yet for all the effect they are likely to have, the Bank’s big guns might as well be peashooters. Although the Bank’s new forecasts suggest the UK is heading for a period of stagnation, rather than outright economic contraction, all the latest forward-looking indicators point to a severe recession starting in...

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Gavekal Monthly: Shall We Dance?

    In a world in which the Fed shows no inclination to get ahead of the curve on inflation and in which both the ECB and the BoJ are in full quantitative easing mode, investors everywhere are on the hunt for yield. But the chase is a nervous one. Investors are all too aware that equities and bonds are sending conflicting signals, and that the favorable trends that have lifted most assets over the last six months could be disrupted by a sudden spike...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Cracks Begin To Appear

    Backward-looking data has held up surprisingly well in the UK since June’s Brexit vote. It is not that second quarter GDP growth came in ahead of expectations at 0.6% QoQ; only one week of 2Q fell after the referendum. However, despite dire warnings of the damage June’s “Leave” vote would inflict on the UK’s all-important property market, home prices proved remarkably resilient in July. The Nationwide house price index rose 0.5% MoM, an...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The EM Equity Question

    Despite this year’s strong run-up, there remain good reasons to stick with emerging market assets. The twin impact of collapsed borrowing costs amid a renewed global hunt for yield, and greatly reduced exchange rate volatility has been the ideal environment for EM yield curve flattening trades.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    One Certainty In An Uncertain World

    In an uncertain world, in which Brexit, the US presidential elections, the future of the eurozone, are all strewn with wild cards whose potential impact is impossible to quantify, investors are left grasping for certainties. One is that whatever happens in the near term, the European Central Bank will continue to buy financial assets, including corporate debt.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Way Ahead For Italian Banks

    On Friday, the European Banking Authority will publish the results of its 2016 stress tests. Although 51 banks from across the European Union have been tested, attention will focus most closely on the results of the five Italian banks covered. With Italy’s banking system widely identified as the most likely locus of a new eurozone crisis, bankers, politicians and investors are all hoping for the “best” likely result. This would see all the banks...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Constraints Of ECB Stimulus

    Already fragile, eurozone confidence has taken a further beating in the last four weeks. In one of the first data releases since last month’s Brexit vote, the ZEW index of German economic sentiment plunged to -6.8 yesterday from 19.2 in June, its steepest fall since 2012. With growth in the eurozone’s principal economic driver likely to soften as confidence deteriorates, expectations are mounting that the European Central Bank will respond by...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Why Brexit Still May Not Happen

    With a newly installed British prime minister gravely intoning that “Brexit means Brexit” and having just appointed a cabal of Brexiters to run the UK’s exit strategy from the European Union, it would look to be game-over. Anatole would beg to differ and explains why there remains a strong likelihood that the UK government will change tack in the face of different circumstances than prevailed at the time of last month’s referendum.

    8
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Post-Brexit Rally: Head Fake Or Game-Changer?

    Let’s face it, few expected the rally in global risk assets of the past ten days. Even investors who, like Charles, believed that Brexit was a fundamentally positive development did not expect positivity to erupt quite so suddenly. Yet, here we are, with the Nikkei up 10% since its post-Brexit low, the S&P 500 breaking out to new highs and the Shanghai benchmark above 3,000. Will it last?

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Fundamental Assault On Freedom

    Of all basic freedoms, one of the most fundamental of all is the freedom of the individual to organize his or her relationship with time. The way we order our affairs with respect to the all too brief time allocated to us on this earth is a profound right that we all should be allowed to exercise unhindered. In short, everyone should be free to choose whether to be an ant or a grasshopper.

    10
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Sterling’s Automatic Stabilizer

    As international investors question the ability of a post-Brexit UK to attract the capital inflows needed to finance its hefty current account deficit, the pound is tumbling. Yesterday cable briefly dipped below US$1.28, its lowest since the summer of 1985 just ahead of the Plaza Accord to weaken the super-strong US dollar. And many analysts believe the pound’s fall has further to run, with several houses targeting exchange rates of US$1.20, US$...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Can The Russian Bear Turn Into A Bull?

    This month Russia’s Sukhoi Civil Aircraft Company delivered two 100-seater passenger airplanes to the regional Irish carrier CityJet, and has orders for 13 more over the next year. The news caught our eye as it is the first time the Russian plane maker has broken into the European aviation market. As economists rather than aviation experts, it got us wondering whether Russia is finally curing itself of a decade-long bout of “Dutch disease” as...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Options For Italy

    In the wake of the Brexit vote, investors fearful of contagion have woken to the slow-burn banking crisis in Italy. It should have been news to no one that Italy’s banks are sitting on non-performing loans. Yet with the sector index down -30%, banks are suddenly front and center in investors’ minds as the next source of European uncertainty.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Italian Problem

    The British were recently asked if they wanted to leave the European Union and to the establishment’s horror, they chose to do just that. Italy will host Europe’s next big referendum in November with Prime Minister Matteo Renzi threatening to resign if his package of constitutional reforms isnot passed. Such a dénouement in Europe’s most indebted big economy would trigger a political crisis and require fresh elections. The issue with referendums...

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Positioning For Uncertain Times

    Regular readers will know that Gavekal is a broad church. And while the church choir only occasionally sings in perfect unison, the different singers can often hit harmonies that are all the more powerful for being unexpected. This may be one of those occasions. Yesterday, Anatole, Charles and Louis took part in a conference call in which they laid out their different views of Brexit and what it will mean for the economy and markets of the UK,...

    1
Show me: results