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E.g., 22-07-2017
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    Gavekal Research

    The Future Of The US SPR

    While North Korea is sure to be a major topic at Donald Trump and Xi Jinping's meeting this weekend, bubbling under the surface will be America’s US$347bn bilateral trade deficit with China. Few observers believe the summit will lead to a meeting of minds over the deficit, but a couple of recent developments in the energy sector suggest one way the deficit could be reduced to the satisfaction of both Washington and Beijing.

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    London Seminar — March 2017

    In Gavekal’s seminar in London last week Will Denyer, Charles Gave, Tom Miller and Anatole Kaletsky presented their macroeconomic outlooks and offered investors asset allocation advice.

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    Gavekal Research

    India Gets Serious About Its Banks

    Indian equities delivered the best returns of any emerging market in 1Q17, as the economy rebounded from November’s demonetization debacle. With manufacturing expanding for three straight months, consumer demand returning to normal levels, and the BJP’s decisive victory in state elections boosting sentiment, MSCI India surged by 17%. Growth in the fiscal year to March 31 likely topped 7%, enabling India to retain its crown as the world’s fastest...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Dollar In The Coming Quarter

    The first quarter of the year demonstrated once again that there is little more uncertain than a sure thing in the foreign exchange market. Rewind to mid-December, just before markets eased back for the holiday season, and the consensus firmly favored a stronger US dollar in 2017 . Of course, when sentiment is so strongly aligned, it means there are few marginal buyers left to enter the market. As a result, the consensus was confounded, as the...

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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Europe Braces For The French Election

    The macroeconomic stars are aligning for the eurozone. The region’s cyclical recovery is extending itself across economies and sectors alike. Inflation remains modest, reducing the chances of an early monetary tightening. Eurozone equities are relatively cheap in an expensive world. And the euro is fundamentally undervalued against the US dollar. However, the big risk for investors remains the possibility that nationalist euroskeptic Marine Le...

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    Gavekal Research

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    Gavekal indicators are updated daily

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    Gavekal Research

    Stay Long Ruble Bonds

    Russia has been a consensus overweight among emerging market managers since early 2016. They have been handsomely rewarded. Over the last 12 months, ruble-denominated Russian finance ministry bonds, known as OFZs, have returned 37% in US dollar terms. Small wonder then that over the same time period non-resident holdings of OFZs have increased from 21% of outstanding issuance to 27%. After such an impressive outperformance, it is natural to ask...

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    Gavekal Research

    Regulating Complex Systems

    Everyone will surely agree that today’s financial system is sufficiently complicated and interconnected to qualify as a complex system.And regulating a complex system is by definition almost impossible, because it is in complex systems that Frédéric Bastiat’s observation that there is “what is seen and what is not seen” really comes into its own.

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    Gavekal Research

    Handicapping The French Election

    Things are on the up across Europe: better PMIs, growing employment, increasing trade, stronger consumer confidence and of course rising currency and equity markets. The combination of re-accelerating growth across emerging markets—key export markets for most eurozone countries—low energy prices, very easy monetary policy, low interest rates and a deeply undervalued exchange rate is working its magic. In fact, at this juncture, the only factor...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Macro Update: A Strong Start To A Stable Year

    In our latest quarterly chartbook, Chen Long reviews the latest data and the broadly positive outlook for 2017. Industrial reflation likely peaked in Q1, but the momentum of investment and consumption is solid. Policy is getting marginally tighter as the housing market keeps surprising, but the moves are gradual in this politically sensitive year.

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    Gavekal Research

    Hong Kong: Meet The New Boss

    Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss? Last Sunday saw the “election” of Carrie Lam, CY Leung’s former Number 2, to the post of Hong Kong chief executive. The hope now has to be that, just as Robert Wagner in Austin Powers proved altogether more competent than Dr Evil, Hong Kong’s Number 2 will show herself to be more competent than her former boss in handling the territory’s affairs.

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    Gavekal Research

    US Auto Sales Hit Their Speed Limit

    US auto sales leveled off 18 months ago, and growth has been stalled ever since. Now with interest rates rising and lenders tightening standards on auto loans, KX sees additional reasons to believe that sales have reached their speed limit. Happily, the problems are largely sector-specific, not indicative of general weakness in US consumer demand.

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    Gavekal Research

    Hong Kong Seminar — March 2017

    In Gavekal’s Asia focused seminar in Hong Kong last week Arthur Kroeber, Udith Sikand and Tom Holland presented their outlooks for the rest of the year.

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    Gavekal Research

    Yes To Brexit, No To Rate Hikes

    Tomorrow should see the UK initiate its departure from the European Union by triggering Article 50 and starting the clock on a two year exit negotiation. Yet far from anxiously counting down the days, investors have spent the last week bidding sterling higher, largely on the belief that a robust UK economy may soon spur tighter monetary policy. That is probably a bullish interpretation too far, and the pound’s next significant move will probably...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Shaky Foundation For Iron Ore

    Iron ore prices are still high, but for how much longer? Returning from a field trip, Rosealea is now more convinced prices will fall. A government campaign to close low-end steel producers is aggravating cyclical swings rather than changing the structure of the industry. As supply is now rising to meet demand, prices will come under pressure.

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    Gavekal Research

    After The Health Care Reform Failure

    The Republican drive to repeal and replace Obamacare failed ignominiously on Friday. Together, President Donald Trump and House Speaker Paul Ryan were unable to muster enough support to pass the new health care bill through the House of Representatives. Bowing to reality, they pulled the vote. If there is a positive element to this failure, it is that both the administration and Congress will now shift their focus to tax reform. However, the...

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    Gavekal Research

    A-Shares Come In From The Cold

    Last year, MSCI raised three objections which prohibited the inclusion of China’s onshore A-share markets in its benchmark indexes. In a document published yesterday MSCI suggested two of those obstacles can now be overcome. Chances are high that the third objection can also be dealt with, allowing the inclusion of A-shares as early as this year.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Sanctions With Chinese Characteristics

    Since South Korea decided to host a US missile-defense system, China has restricted tourism and closed local operations of Korean firms. The dispute will mean some economic pain for Korea, but no lasting damage. But China is ever more willing to use such “sanctions with Chinese characteristics” to disrupt trade with countries that displease it.

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    Gavekal Research

    Europe’s Surest Bet

    As investors fret about the trajectory of US growth and the sustainability of the Trump reflation trade, Europe is getting drawn in. Sovereign yields fell pretty much across the board yesterday on worries that the eurozone’s gathering cyclical upturn could be disrupted. In this case, the thinking is that monetary stimulus by the European Central Bank gets extended. To our mind, such worries are overdone as—absent an external shock—Europe’s pick-...

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    Gavekal Research

    Will Washington Disappoint?

    Equity markets have pretty much straight lined higher since the US election on hopes for market-friendly tax cuts, health care reform, and broad deregulation. Worries about high import tariffs and other potential growth-sapping measures have been set to one side. In short, investors have been counting on “Trump without the bad stuff”. With the S&P 500 yesterday sliding -1.2%—the first fall of more than -1% since November’s election—they now...

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