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E.g., 22-07-2017
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Household Debt: How Fast Can It Grow?

    Discussions about China’s debt usually focus on corporate and local government borrowing, but households have also become more important. The level of household debt is no longer low, and since 2015 it has become the major driver of credit growth. In this piece, Chen Long investigates the limits to China’s new embrace of household leverage.

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    Gavekal Research

    Safety First In EMs

    After a steady rise in emerging market inflows over the last seven months, tighter US financial conditions have led to an abrupt reversal. On the back of inflation concerns and a stronger US dollar, the seven day moving average of daily portfolio flows to EMs, as of last Monday, had fallen to its lowest level since the renminbi-induced sell-off 14 months ago. EMs are vulnerable to an externally-induced pull-back, for even if key central banks...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Andrew Batson: What Next For Chinese Growth?

    Chinese policymakers are set on maintaining economic stability ahead of a crucial Communist Party meeting next year—but while that means stabilizing growth it also means pushing back against a property bubble. In this video interview, Andrew assesses the tactical trade-offs that must be made in support of the strategy of stability.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Three Pillars Of Stability

    China has now delivered real GDP growth of 6.7% three quarters in a row—a stability that is uncanny even by its standards. Such stability is even more prized than usual by the government, now preoccupied with next year’s Communist Party Congress. In this piece Andrew assesses how much longer the three pillars supporting this stability can hold up.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Equality Engine Is Stalling

    For all its leaders’ talk of a “new normal,” China has not weaned itself off the “old normal” of housing and investment-led growth. That model was in fact a powerful engine for reducing regional inequality, so it has much political support. The engine has now stalled—but rather than swap in a new one, the government keeps revving the old one.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Housing & Construction Review 2016

    In the latest edition of our annual overview of housing and construction in China, Rosealea summarizes the short- and long-term outlook for these key economic drivers. This concise chartbook provides 2017 forecasts for major indicators, and covers topics such as changes in housing policy, structural trends in demand, and the state of inventories.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Foreign Debt Drawdown Stops

    One of the big drivers of recent capital outflows—Chinese companies paying down foreign-currency debt—seems to have stopped, or at least paused, in the second quarter. While China still has net capital outflows, the scale is manageable given the still-high level of reserves, giving the central bank space to pursue its preferred currency policy.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Is Internet Growth Really Slowing Down?

    Often overlooked in the hype around China’s internet boom is the downturn in some key indicators: growth in internet users and in online retail has slowed. How to reconcile this with an apparently thriving internet economy—can the internet’s growth really be slowing down? The answer is yes, and no; it’s how the internet is growing that’s changing.

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    Gavekal Research

    Singapore Seminar—September 2016

    Audio and video from the latest Gavekal seminar in Singapore is available here. Louis Gave explains why financial markets have recently behaved predictably, and why that is about to change. Andrew Batson explains why Chinese policy making is in a holding pattern until next year's party congress is settled. Udith Sikand explains why this year's emerging market outperformance is likely to continue, as bonds and especially equities have...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Holding Pattern

    Market worries about China have gone very quiet lately—and this is no accident. In this presentation, Andrew argues that China is in a holding pattern of steady growth and cautious policy ahead of the 2017 Party Congress. While China probably won’t be forced out of the holding pattern, financial stress and structural problems continue to build.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Big Fish Eat The Little Fish

    China’s housing sales may have plateaued, but the largest real-estate companies still have plenty of room to grow by consolidating an enormous and fragmented market. A multiyear boom in M&A has strengthened the market position of the largest developers, who are still easily raising huge sums from capital markets that can fund future deals.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: Techno-nationalism 2.0

    China’s economy may be slowing, but its ability to cause technological anxiety has never been greater. Many are worried China could succeed in its ambition of becoming a global technology hub, at the expense of existing leaders. This issue of the CEQ focuses on how China is moving up the technology ladder, and the risk this triggers a backlash.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China’s New Mercantilism

    A growth slowdown and financial stress have not dented China’s determination to become one of the world’s technological leaders. The way it is setting about this task threatens to provoke a protectionist backlash.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Discreet Charm Of Hybrid Companies

    Despite enormous state investments in national champions, China’s technological development has been led by nimble “hybrid” firms combining Chinese entrepreneurship and foreign finance. This model is now under threat from the government’s increasingly techno-nationalist approach.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A New Grand Strategy For Semiconductors

    Over the past two decades China has poured billions of dollars into its semiconductor industry, with limited results. Now it is trying a new approach that combines top-down government policy with more market-based financing. The odds of success are good enough to worry foreign firms, but global cooperation to integrate China into the semiconductor value chain still makes sense.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Foreign Tech Companies: Alive In The Bitter Sea

    Foreign technology firms face a far more challenging environment in China than they did a decade ago. Confronted by an intensified techno-nationalist agenda and strong competition from domestic players, they need to revise their strategies. Careful localization is the best option.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    How Much Financial Risk?

    Debt is rising fast, as are bad loans and the complexity of the financial system. Yet the financial risks in China are still localized rather than systemic, thanks to the huge supply of bank deposits, and the fact that the government is the ultimate owner of virtually the entire system.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Open Checkbook, Closed Market

    The rich world is growing uneasy over the rapid expansion of China’s investment abroad. A rise in protectionist rules is likely unless China does more to satisfy reciprocity concerns by opening its own market.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Retirement Policy Conundrum

    The working-age population is shrinking and growing older, jeopardizing economic growth prospects. One solution would be to make people work longer: the average retirement age is 54, the lowest in the world. But such a goal conflicts with local governments’ desire to manage layoffs in excess-capacity sectors by offering early retirement.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Actually, China Can Innovate

    Can Chinese firms innovate, and will China produce more branded, globally competitive firms like its Huawei? The answers from the authors of these three books are a unanimous yes on both counts. The verdicts are based on substantial first-hand research and fly in the face of much (less well founded) “China cannot innovate” writing in recent years.

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