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    Gavekal Research

    The Italian Problem

    The British were recently asked if they wanted to leave the European Union and to the establishment’s horror, they chose to do just that. Italy will host Europe’s next big referendum in November with Prime Minister Matteo Renzi threatening to resign if his package of constitutional reforms isnot passed. Such a dénouement in Europe’s most indebted big economy would trigger a political crisis and require fresh elections. The issue with referendums...

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    Positioning For Uncertain Times

    Regular readers will know that Gavekal is a broad church. And while the church choir only occasionally sings in perfect unison, the different singers can often hit harmonies that are all the more powerful for being unexpected. This may be one of those occasions. Yesterday, Anatole, Charles and Louis took part in a conference call in which they laid out their different views of Brexit and what it will mean for the economy and markets of the UK,...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    The Gavekal Monthly: Life After The Brexit Vote

    The world is now a considerably more uncertain place than a month ago. Following the UK’s referendum vote in favor of Brexit, a near-term recession in the UK is more likely than not, the European Union faces the possibility of a renewed economic slowdown, and investors find themselves forced to reassess the probability that Donald Trump will win November’s US presidential election. In this edition of the Gavekal Monthly, our analysts set out to...

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    Gavekal Research

    Towards A Fiscal Union By Stealth

    Unlike most fish, sharks possess no swim bladder, which means they rely on dynamic lift to maintain their buoyancy. If they stop moving forwards, they sink. In that much, at least, Europe resembles a shark. Following the UK’s Brexit vote, if the EU does not press forward with closer union, it risks sinking under the weight of the forces dragging it into the abyss.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    History Moves Again, Again

    Back in September 1989 as it became clear that big forces were shaking up the Cold War status quo, I wrote a research piece that aimed to place these convulsions in a broader context. It borrowed from a core idea of the great historian Arnold J. Toynbee that a driving force of history is what he dubbed “missionary ideas”, which tend to find their inspiration in religion (see History Moves Again). In the post-enlightenment era there have been...

    28
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    Gavekal Research

    Coping With Brexhaustion

    Among all the different questions investors have had to confront in the past 72 hours, only one really matters: have we just witnessed a “Lehman moment”? At the risk of sounding like a Jesuit priest, I will answer this vital question with a bunch more questions. The first is: have the financial market’s core beliefs now been shattered?

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Everything Just Changed

    There are moments in history when the impossible becomes inevitable without ever passing through improbable. The period after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy was such a time. Last night’s unexpected repudiation by British voters of 40 years of European Union membership is another. The outcome of the referendum is a shock fully comparable to the Lehman collapse. Rarely, if ever, has a G7 currency fallen by -10% in a single trading session, as the...

    6
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    Gavekal Research

    Europe: Ready To Be Reborn From Its Own Ashes?

    Over the past decade, global investors would have been wise to largely ignore eurozone equities. Their underperformance has not been constant, but intermittent policy-driven rallies have become weaker and shallower. Eurozone stocks outperformed for two years after Mario Draghi’s 2012 promise to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro, yet by the time the European Central Bank got around to launching its asset-buying program in 2015 the benefit...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Never Mind The Brexit, Look At Eurozone Mid-Caps

    Recent releases of hard and soft macro-economic data point to a cyclical eurozone recovery whose domestic drivers are increasingly robust. On the back of stronger consumption and investment, GDP growth was just revised up to 0.6% QoQ for 1Q16. Unemployment continues to fall and, after a weak start to the year, economic sentiment indicators have rebounded—the ZEW released yesterday for June leapt to 20.2 from 16.8 in May. This improvement is...

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    Brexit Tail Wags The Dog

    If anyone still doubted the claim expressed here on May 25 that politics is now driving global financial markets far more than economics (see The Brexit Vote As Harbinger Of A Populist Age, Or Not), those doubts should have been dispelled by Monday’s trading. From the moment that currency trading started in the New Zealand morning, through the Nikkei and Hang Seng openings in Asia, to the main forex business in London and finally the stock...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Populism And A New Financial Crisis

    The febrile behavior of financial markets ahead of Britain’s EU referendum shows that the voting on June 23 will influence economic and political conditions around the world far more profoundly than Britain’s share of 4% in global GDP might suggest. This outsize impact has at least three explanations.

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    Gavekal Research

    Never Do On Monday What You Wish You’d Done On Friday

    The first rule of bear markets is never to do on Monday what you wish you had done on Friday. During bear markets, the constant stream of negative stories from the media leads to a build-up of anxiety among investors, anxiety that pours out first thing on Monday morning on trading floors everywhere.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Fear Not Brexit

    The UK political class is all in a flutter as the latest European Union referendum polls show an apparent rising tide of support for “Leave”. Having orchestrated the great and good into warning of catastrophe should a Brexit materialize, it would seem that “project fear” is not cutting through. I tend to have strong political convictions and perhaps for this reason I have a lousy record of guesstimating election outcomes. Since the UK referendum...

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    Gavekal Research

    The ECB Embraces Total QE

    The European Central Bank pushed further into uncharted territory this week, when it made its first foray into the corporate bond market. Three months after announcing its new initiative, the ECB added the Corporate Sector Purchase Program, or CSPP, to its alphabet soup of monetary operations. Under the CSPP, the central bank will make purchases of investment grade non-bank corporate debt, to go with the sovereign debt, covered bonds and asset-...

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    Gavekal Research

    The French Investment Pick-Up

    France may be racked by strikes and edgy about terrorist threats as a major soccer tournament it is hosting kicks off today, but the eurozone’s second biggest economy has a decent story to tell. Consumer confidence is at a post-2007 high, recent GDP readings have surprised on the upside and even jobless claims hint at an improvement in the labor market (see Is France Getting Better?). All of this perhaps explains why French investment for 1Q16...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Outlook For The US$ Vs The Euro

    When coming to investment decisions in the financial markets, I always try to be as “rules-based” as I possibly can. By that, I mean that I look as closely as I can at the available evidence to determine what has worked in the past—and what has not. This is difficult enough when analyzing the US bond market or the French stock market, but when it comes to exchange rates, the task reaches a whole new level of complexity. It is necessary to look...

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    Gavekal Research

    On Populism

    The ruling class, which over the last 20 years has done so much to manage our decline, has found a new enemy in the shape of political “populism.” While acknowledging that times have been tough, what so annoys this elite is the realization that “we the people” do not recognize that a complicated world is being run in our own best interests. For this reason it is no great surprise that such ingrates have been labelled populists.

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    Gavekal Research

    A Backdoor Resolution For Greece, And The Eurozone

    A Greek crisis was avoided last week after European creditors agreed to a €10.3bn disbursement to Athens without the International Monetary Fund contributing funds. The idea is for the Europeans and the IMF to thrash out a compromise that grants Greece sufficient debt relief to make its program sustainable. On one level this mucky deal seemed just another case of the can being kicked down the road, yet on another there is now a “back door”...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Gavekal Monthly: Risks For Equities—Populism And The Dollar

    Even as markets nudge higher, investors are unnerved by a rising tide of populist politics whose tangible expression will be tested on June 23, when UK voters must choose between Brexit or a less than perfect status quo inside the European Union. Investors are also concerned that the US dollar will strengthen further as the Federal Reserve mulls the question of whether to raise interest rates. In this monthly our writers weigh these big issues...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Death Knell For The French Left

    To outside observers the latest round of strikes and demonstrations to sweep France must seem a case of déja vu all over again. For the fourth time in a little over 20 years, left wing trade unions have called mass walk-outs to protest against proposed government reforms of France’s notoriously rigid labor market. As before, the transport system has been thrown into chaos, with air traffic controllers en grève, and blockades of the country’s oil...

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