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E.g., 24-05-2017
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    Gavekal Research

    The Prime Minister Has No Clothes

    Britain’s House of Lords passed a crucial amendment yesterday to Theresa May’s Brexit bill. This amendment would give Parliament a “meaningful vote” at the end of the Brexit negotiations and could offer the possibility of stopping Brexit or seeking to extend the negotiations beyond the 2019 deadline, if the deal Mrs May brings home next year is deemed to be not good enough. Anatole argues this is a game changer for opponents of Brexit.

    7
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Relief For Workers Is Coming

    Premier Li Keqiang says pressure on employment is growing, so he has raised the government’s target for urban job creation in 2017. Ernan however disagrees with the premier: the pressure on China’s job market will actually ease somewhat this year, as the cyclical recovery in the economy means that companies have less need to cut jobs.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Time To Exit US Equities

    Over the last few months Charles has argued that the US stock market rally was running on fumes. In the intervening period, US equities have, of course, powered to new highs. He now says that for the first time since 2007 his valuation model definitively points to US equities being overvalued.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Fiscal Stimulus? What Fiscal Stimulus?

    China’s latest budget report reinforces its recent shift toward marginally dialing back economic stimulus. In 2016, the finance ministry raised the deficit to 3% of GDP from 2.4% in 2015; for 2017, it is standing pat, targeting a 3% deficit again. Less publicized but more relevant is the fact that off-budget public works spending is also slowing.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    India’s Property Dream

    In India, home building constitutes just 1% of GDP and fails to satisfy basic amenity demand—some 60mn Indians live in urban dwellings deemed unfit for human habitation. The good news is that India is getting serious about supporting residential property development, which could yet have a China-like impact on domestic demand and global commodity markets.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    On Borrowed Time In Hong Kong

    Last month, home prices in Hong Kong’s secondary market climbed to a record high, up more than 150% from the depths of the financial crisis. At the same time, Hong Kong’s stock market has been among the world’s strongest major markets so far this year, comfortably outperforming the S&P 500. The buoyancy of Hong Kong assets owes more than a little to investor enthusiasm for the global reflation trade, and to inflows of Chinese money. But more...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Self-Sustaining Eurozone Recovery

    A broadening and deepening of the eurozone’s economic recovery suggests that the expansion has finally become self-sustaining. The worry is that a political shock from upcoming national elections tips the single currency area back into crisis. Nick Andrews does not think such a bearish outcome is likely, and in this video explains his preferred investment strategy.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Upside Of Eurozone Inflation

    As even formerly dovish policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee have hardened their rhetoric in recent days, the US dollar has strengthened, with the bilateral EUR/USD rate falling back to dip briefly below the US$1.05 mark late Tuesday. Whether the US dollar’s run-up can be sustained is questionable, however. With the market expecting three US rate hikes this year, the US dollar appears priced for a “Trumpflation” outcome that both...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Picking Apart The Iron Ore Conundrum

    Is China’s continued rally in iron ore prices the result of benign structural change in the steel sector, or frenzied financial speculation? Rosealea and Arthur review the competing explanations, and find both have some merit. So while a lot has to go right to avoid an ore price crash, this correction could still take a while to materialize.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Because Of Trump, Or Despite Him?

    The enthusiastic market reaction to US President Donald Trump’s big speech on Tuesday night can be interpreted in two ways, both bullish for equities and bearish for bonds, but only one of them positive for the dollar.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    A Structural Turn In Japan

    For more than a quarter of a century Japan has been a reliable source of disappointment for investors. After a nice little run-up late last year, a familiar pattern has emerged in 2017 as equities edge nervously sideways. Despite some evidence of Asia’s trading economy spluttering into life, Japan yesterday released surprisingly soft industrial production data for January. To top things off, the Wall Street Journal on the same day ran a...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Reflation Gets A China Boost

    For the last three months, markets have been focused on “Trumpflation”. But the global reflation trade began long before Donald Trump’s November election, with China’s surprisingly strong growth rebound early last year. This suggests that China’s growth performance in 2017 will be a key factor in determining the sustainability of global reflation. In this edition of Gavekal’s Strategy Monthly, Arthur Kroeber and Chen Long argue that China’s...

    0
  • Gavekal Research

    The Future 8 Index

    Lyxor Asset Management Japan, Société Générale’s Asset Management division, has announced the launch of its “Neo-Futuristic World Fund” which is open to Japanese investors with an official launch on April 18. It will invest in a fully collateralised structured notes linked to an index of companies worldwide created by Gavekal Research; The Future Eight Index. “The Future Eight” refers to advanced technologies being developed in eight industries...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Where Next For The Reflation Trade?

    What was the biggest surprise of 2016? Ask the question in the US and invariably the answer is Donald Trump’s election victory. Ask in Europe and the answer is either the same or, if not, it is the result of the Brexit vote. But are these the events that genuinely moved markets the most? Look at it this way: over the past 12 months, commodity producers have typically been the best performers in almost every market, followed by financials. The...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A-Shares Ride An IPO Boom

    The state of initial public offerings is one of the Chinese stock market’s longest running embarrassments: regulators have been holding up IPO approvals for hundreds of firms for years now. But they are now finally picking up the pace, making it easier for younger, fast-growing firms to list—though full deregulation of IPOs is not on the agenda.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Calling Time On Bank Outperformance

    Tomorrow Donald Trump is scheduled to address a joint session of the US Congress. Although expected to be long on characteristic bombast, the president’s speech is likely to be short on hard details about his core policies. That shouldn’t be too surprising. Drawing up tax reform and infrastructure spending plans and squaring them away with the Republican majority in Congress will take many months. However, without concrete information to sustain...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Are Border Adjustments Protectionist?

    The introduction of border adjustments into the US tax code is by far the most controversial part of the House Republicans’ “blueprint” for tax reform—with good reason. This reform alone would be a game-changer, with many winners and losers. This is why, like all major tax reforms, it faces an uphill battle to become law, and why it may never happen. But the same was said of a Donald Trump presidency, and of Brexit. So, investors still need to...

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    The Battle To Command The Logos

    The “Logos” encompasses a society’s language, its way of looking at the world, and its dominant political narrative—he who commands it has his hands on all the levers of political power. Every so often, however, a new communication technology emerges that allows the rise of a new Logos to challenge the old.

    6
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    Gavekal Research

    The Eurozone’s Ongoing Rebalancing

    Yesterday the European Commission criticized Germany for its “persistently high current account surplus”. Berlin should take more steps to boost domestic demand in Germany, Brussels suggested, in order to trim its external surplus and to help the rest of the euro-area rebalance. It is hardly new advice, but the EC does not seem optimistic it will be heeded anytime soon. In the same release, it forecast that Germany’s current account surplus will...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    A Qualified Positive For Chinese Banks

    The Hong Kong-listed H-shares of mainland Chinese financials are the best performing segment of one of the world’s strongest markets year-to-date. So far this year, the H-share index is up 12% in US dollar terms, driven largely by gains in the stocks of China’s big banks and insurers. So it is natural for investors to sit up and take notice on reports that China’s big four financial regulators have drafted a joint proposal to tighten their...

    0
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