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E.g., 20-09-2017
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    Gavekal Research

    Calling Time On Bank Outperformance

    Tomorrow Donald Trump is scheduled to address a joint session of the US Congress. Although expected to be long on characteristic bombast, the president’s speech is likely to be short on hard details about his core policies. That shouldn’t be too surprising. Drawing up tax reform and infrastructure spending plans and squaring them away with the Republican majority in Congress will take many months. However, without concrete information to sustain...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Are Border Adjustments Protectionist?

    The introduction of border adjustments into the US tax code is by far the most controversial part of the House Republicans’ “blueprint” for tax reform—with good reason. This reform alone would be a game-changer, with many winners and losers. This is why, like all major tax reforms, it faces an uphill battle to become law, and why it may never happen. But the same was said of a Donald Trump presidency, and of Brexit. So, investors still need to...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Battle To Command The Logos

    The “Logos” encompasses a society’s language, its way of looking at the world, and its dominant political narrative—he who commands it has his hands on all the levers of political power. Every so often, however, a new communication technology emerges that allows the rise of a new Logos to challenge the old.

    6
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    Gavekal Research

    Hong Kong Seminar — February 2017

    Gavekal’s global macroeconomic seminar in Hong Kong in February featured Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer and Louis-Vincent Gave. They presented on the global investment outlook under a Trump presidency, the decline in US productivity, and the sustainability of the "Trumpflation" rally.

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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research February Call

    In Gavekal Research’s February conference call, Louis-Vincent Gave delves into the unexpected origins of the reflation trade in order to assess its future prospects. And Arthur Kroeber unpicks the combative rhetoric emanating from Washington to gauge the probability of heightened trade friction between the United States and China.

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    Gavekal Research

    The EM Reflation Trade Is Past Its Best

    The emerging market reflation trade has been on fire. This week Dr. Copper broke out of his six-year downward trend, adding fuel to the reflationary flames. As a result, while the relative performance of cyclical stocks has moderated in developed markets during February, EM cyclicals have continued their bullish run. Their strong performance has helped to lift the MSCI EM index by 10% year-to-date in US dollar terms to reach a 19-month high. But...

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    Gavekal Research

    US Inflation: The End Of The Affair

    If there is one consensus view about US markets it is that inflation is ticking up, a tightening cycle is underway and the dollar will again rise. As markets are made at the margin, any hit to these beliefs could push investors into a sharp repositioning. Within Gavekal there is disagreement on this score, with Anatole arguing that US inflation and bond yields are on an upward trend, Charles taking the opposite view and Louis stating that US...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Brace For US-China Trade Conflict

    Is Donald Trump backing down from his threat to get tough on China trade? It might seem so: after three weeks of rapid policy moves, his promised anti-China trade action is still missing. But it will not stay missing for long. Some US move against China trade looks inevitable in coming months, though the costs will be high and the benefits unclear.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Choosing Between Disadvantages

    It was a record that Germany would rather not have announced, at least not this week. Yesterday official data showed that Europe’s über exporter racked up a current account surplus in 2016 of US$281bn versus a mere US$210bn for China. With the US running by far the largest offsetting deficit, such data means that the temperature between Washington and Berlin is likely to get hotter.

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    Gavekal Research

    Less Than It Seems: US Financial Deregulation

    US bank stocks rallied strongly on Friday on Donald Trump’s promise to tear up much of the Dodd-Frank 2010 financial regulation act. But steering a new act through Congress will not be easy. And while proposals now on the table greatly simplify the existing rules, they do not amount to the wholesale easing of regulations that would be needed to drive a rapid acceleration of bank lending.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Golden Rule Says Extend Duration

    Great economists are seldom top flight mathematicians. One exception was Maurice Allais, who won the Nobel Prize in 1988 for his “rigorous mathematical formulations of market equilibrium and the efficiency properties of markets”. Among his findings was his so-called “golden rule”, which states that over the long run, long term government bond yields always converge with the structural growth rate of the economy.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Beyond The Trump Rally

    We have revamped the format of our Monthly to make it a more useful guide to our key investment views. In this month's edition, Louis Gave looks beyond the temporary euphoria that gripped markets after Donald Trump's election and sketches out investment strategies for the coming year.

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    Gavekal Research

    Points Of Agreement And Dissent

    Last week Louis laid out his roadmap for navigating financial markets in 2017. In this follow-up, Anatole picks up on five debating points, and details where and why he agrees or disagrees with Louis.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The “Experts” May Yet Be Right

    Last week Louis set out a comprehensive roadmap for 2017. I have just five points to add: two points of strong agreement (on Europe and the oil price); two of dissent (on US bonds and Britain); and one that echoes Louis’s uncertainty and anxiety, but for slightly different reasons (about the pressures on the US dollar and what they could mean for emerging markets). I will explore these specific issues of agreement and dissent in a lengthier...

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    Border Tax Adjustments In Context

    US president Donald Trump moved a step closer to realizing his “America first” trade policy yesterday, promising a 20% tax on imports from Mexico. However, rather than an outright tariff on imports, it is looking increasingly likely that the new levy will come in the form of a border tax adjustment, as envisaged by the House Republican majority as part of a wider US tax reform program. In theory, border tax adjustments should be trade-neutral,...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Making Sense Of US Trade Tax Plans

    Yesterday Donald Trump met members of Congress to discuss a 20% tax on imports into the US. However, what is being proposed is not an outright tariff, but rather a system of “border tax adjustments”. Will explains what these are, how they will work, and what effect they will have on the US dollar and the real economy.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Dow 20,000 Conundrum

    The Trump trade continues. Yesterday the Dow Jones Industrial Average passed the magical 20,000 mark for the first time, with the S&P 500 closing at a record high just a whisker short of 2,300. I hate to be the one to douse the market’s high spirits with a bucket of cold water (well, I don’t really hate it), but sober analysis suggests that the current Trump-propelled rally is a fad that may soon fade.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Drawing Meaning From 2016, And A Roadmap For 2017

    Having experienced a rough 2016, the temptation for most investors is to clean the slate and start again. Unfortunately, life in financial markets does not allow for such neat endings. In one of his biggest reports in years, Louis argues that after such a complex and tumultuous year, it is essential for investors to draw a breath and derive some understanding of what just happened. Only then should they try to sketch out future scenarios.

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    Gavekal Research

    Do We Need To Worry About The Shrinking US Monetary Base?

    The US monetary base is shrinking, and with Fed officials talking about winding down their bond holdings, it is only natural for equity investors to be concerned. However, as KX explains, the contraction in base money is a technical effect of recent regulatory changes, and the Fed is not yet running down its assets.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Trump May Yet Learn To Like Border Adjustments

    Last week, Donald Trump dismissed border tax adjustments as “too complicated”. He may yet reconsider. If the newly-installed president has one dominant policy objective, it is to make the US more attractive as a destination for investment and as a location for manufacturing. Alongside deregulation and cutting the US corporate tax rate, imposing border tax adjustments along the lines proposed by the House Republicans is one of the simplest and...

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