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E.g., 26-03-2017
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    Gavekal Research

    Hard Brexit Means Soft Sterling

    Since the June referendum the only real choice for Britain has been Hard Brexit or No Brexit. The No Brexit option disappeared as soon as Theresa May became prime minister under the slogan “Brexit means Brexit”. Barring some deus ex machina that swept May out of power, that left only one possibility: a rock-hard Brexit.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research January Call

    Charles Gave argued that Donald Trump’s protectionist policy could lead to a breakdown of the post-1971 fiat money system that is based on a US dollar standard. Will Denyer deconstructed the likely workings of a new trade taxation regime in the US and explained what that means for currencies. Arthur Kroeber outlined the likely Chinese response to a US trade broadside and argued that Beijing was decently well placed to weather the attack.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: A Coming US-China Trade War?

    In this video interview Arthur explains how a US-China trade war may play out and the implication for capital outflows from China

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Trump's China Choice: Trade War Or New Deal?

    Once Donald Trump occupies the White House he is sure to launch salvos at China in the form of new tariffs, anti-dumping actions and the labeling of China as a currency manipulator. It is tough to predict exactly what these actions will entail going forward. What is certain is that the long-running US consensus on how to handle China has broken down.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Dissonance In US-China Relations

    Once Donald Trump occupies the White House he is sure to take aim at China in the form of new tariffs, anti-dumping actions and the labeling of the country as a currency manipulator. What is unclear is whether such actions reflect a tough negotiating stance, or instead a fundamental shift in the strategic equation. In this video interview, Arthur explains why the mixed messages coming out of Washington have the potential to spark a dangerous...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Political Fiction

    European economic indicators have turned up in recent months, causing many investors to conclude that the eurozone’s banishment in the desert of economic stagnation is over, and the promised land of a normal recovery beckons. I am not convinced and judging by recent moves in the bond market, I’m wondering if the next eurozone crisis is already upon us.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    After Reflation, Profits Still Decent

    The stimulus-driven rebound in housing sales and commodity prices lifted the profits of China’s industrial firms in 2016. With the cycle turning, profit growth is certain to weaken in 2017. But for most manufacturers—outside the volatile commodity complex—the end of reflation should see only a gradual slowdown and still decent profit growth.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Tax Reform And The Dollar: It’s Not So Straightforward

    Tax reform is high on the agenda both for US president-elect Donald Trump and for the new session of Congress that began earlier this month. Among the reform proposals that could most affect investors are those advanced by the House Republicans, which many commentators have argued could cause a substantial exchange rate appreciation of the US dollar. In theory—all else being equal—this would be true. But our examination of current exchange rate...

    7
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    Gavekal Research

    Emerging Markets Trumped

    In yesterday’s Daily, Louis argued that despite the renewed strengthening of the US dollar over the last couple of months since the US election, there has been no generalized flight out of emerging markets. Sure, Turkey appears to be experiencing a classic emerging market currency crisis. But as Louis noted, the collapse of the lira has been driven by peculiarly Turkish factors. There is little or no risk of contagion spreading to the broader...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Deconstructing Dollar Strength

    The trajectory of the US dollar is likely to be the single most important determinant of investors’ returns in 2017. Either the US currency will weaken, leading to a bull market in much of the rest of the world. Or it will strengthen, which will make markets life more difficult to navigate. Charles warns that we are approaching a tipping point.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    A Very Turkish Mess

    Get into a taxi in Rio de Janeiro, Jakarta or Cape Town, and ask for that day’s US dollar exchange rate, and the chances are that the driver will know the answer to within a decimal point. Try the same thing in Tokyo, London or Berlin and you will likely receive a blank stare. My anecdote reflects a simple reality: most people in emerging markets think in two currencies: their own and the US dollar. This highlights most emerging market consumers...

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    The End Of The Dollar Standard

    Charles is encouraged by the broad thrust of Donald Trump’s economic program, but deeply worried that the US’s emerging protectionist agenda could wreck the dollar-based credit system that underpins global financial markets. The dollar-standard was always more vulnerable to a US action than foreigners losing confidence in it as a store of value.

    6
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    Gavekal Research

    Firing On Three Cylinders

    The upturn in the eurozone continues to gain momentum. The recovery in France which long has been among the European economy's laggards, coupled with brisk activity in Germany and Spain, suggests that the eurozone is now firing on three of its four main cylinders in a cyclical upswing that promises to become self-sustaining.

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Half-Hearted Battle Against Air Pollution

    The return of severe smog to northern China since December has frightened families and raised more doubts about the government’s declared “war” on air pollution. So is the government losing the war? Or are they not even fighting it in the first place? In this piece, Rosealea explains the political and economic realities of air pollution in China.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Japanese Equities: More Where That Came From

    Japan is the top performer among developed world equity markets over the last six months, with the Nikkei 225 up 28% in local currency terms. Even in US dollar terms, the Japanese market has gained a robust 14%, enough to outperform an S&P 500 lent wings by the Trump trade. That strength is set to continue into 2017, with the Tokyo market remaining well bid on the back of a monetary policy stance that the Bank of Japan will find it hard—even...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Alchemist’s Apprentice

    If done right urbanization can be considered development alchemy as it transforms surplus rural labor and simple building materials into the “gold” of economic growth. India has lagged China’s embrace of city life over the last 30 years, but that is now changing and the result could be transformative for the Indian economy’s growth outlook.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    What You Need To Know About The Party Congress

    In 2017, the Communist Party will hold its 19th Congress, an event that will set the political framework for Xi Jinping’s second term as China’s leader, and beyond. The big question for the Congress is how much Xi will be able to change the rules of elite politics to strengthen his own power. This piece offers a guide to those rules of the game.

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    Gavekal Research

    Long Rates & The Velocity Of Money

    As Gavekal’s readers will be aware, much of my research is driven by a handful of powerful obsessions. Lately these have included my fixation with the euro as a weapon of mass destruction, and my determination to elucidate how the theories of the great 19th century economist Knut Wicksell apply to today’s economies and markets. In recent years these have, to some extent, displaced other pre-occupations, and I have done very little work on one of...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The RMB: Steady As She Goes

    In the first three trading days of 2017, the renminbi jumped more than 1% against the US dollar. But this bullish start to the year does not signal a change of tack for China's policymakers. Here, Chen Long explains why Beijing’s strategy of managing the renminbi against a trade-weighted basket of currencies will not change in 2017.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Gavekal Monthly: Our Top 12 Questions For 2017

    For our first Monthly of the year, we depart from our normal format to offer our thoughts on the dozen most important questions investors must face this year. Not surprisingly, the issues that rose to the top were the impact of the new Trump administration's policies on the dollar and US bond yields, and whether the eurozone will spend the year tearing itself apart. Also,oil prices, the risk of financial implosion in China, and where to...

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