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    Gavekal Research

    Selling India’s Housing Dream — Part II

    When Indians visit China for the first time, it often comes as a shock: China is more materially developed than they could ever have imagined. And when Chinese visit India for the first time, it too comes as a shock: India is even more chaotic, dirty and materially backward than they had been told!

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research November Call

    In our monthly research conference call yesterday, Will Denyer outlined his case that demographic factors explain much of the decline in interest rates over the last 30 or so years. His point is that we are nearing a turning point in the global demand-supply relationship for loanable funds and the overall direction of interest rates should be higher.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Contradictory Signals On US Corporate Credit Risk

    US high-yield spreads have widened by 39bp over the last three weeks. Nevertheless, by long term historical standards, they remain exceptionally tight, indicating that the bond market is pricing in remarkably little US corporate credit risk. That message is at odds with the tale being told by the US equity market, which is signaling that corporate credit risk is on the rise. Only one of them can be correct. There are good reasons to think it may...

    4
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    From Tianjin, Affordable Luxuries

    The surging population of affluent Chinese households is a key global market for all kinds of luxury goods. Foreign brands have done well in this boom, but the market is getting more competitive as local firms up their game. Thomas and Ernan report from Tianjin on two very different companies that are both succeeding in high-end niche markets.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Truth About Euro-Dollar

    At the time of writing, a five-year zero coupon treasury bond is priced at about 90 while a comparable German zero sells for 101.9. This absurdity reflects the fact that for all the talk of incipient European inflation, German five-year yields are still negative. Hence a fellow buying-to-hold such a German bond today is guaranteed to lose money, at least in euro terms.

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    Gavekal Research

    Saudi Arabia’s Shifting Sands

    For the last three years the dominant narrative in the oil market has concentrated on the fundamentals of supply and demand. Geopolitical risk has been a minor—and transient—sideshow. All that changed at the weekend, when Saudi Arabia’s 32-year-old crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, or MbS as he is known, exercised his authority as the head of the kingdom’s newly-established anti-corruption commission to take down a broad swathe of the Saudi...

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    Gavekal Research

    A Brave New, New World?

    The traffic has been one-way. Since mid-August, the Philly semiconductors index is up 23%, the Nikkei 225 by 18%, the S&P energy index by 14% and the S&P materials index by 10%. In other words, all “deep-cyclicals” and “price monetizers” are ripping higher. So what to make of this?

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    All Pomp, No Circumstance

    President Trump’s 12-day trek through Asia promises much pomp and little circumstance. Since his administration has no strategic vision for the region and has chosen to abandon many of the tools of diplomacy in favor of overblown rhetoric and empty threats, there is little chance of material progress on any important economic or security issues.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Equities When The Dollar Declines

    The US dollar has strengthened over the last couple of months. But the relative maturity of the US cycle, the US dollar’s overvaluation, and the prospect for changes in monetary policy stances outside the US all argue for US dollar depreciation over the medium term. Against this bearish backdrop, KX examines the characteristics of equities that tend to outperform when the US currency is depreciating.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The View Into 2018

    The Chinese economy has experienced a nice cyclical recovery since 2016, but now most forecasters are expecting a loss of momentum in 2018. So how is this slowdown likely to play out? In this piece Chen Long lays out his case for a gradual cooling in both real and nominal growth that will not spook global markets.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Pain In Spain

    To date, the situation in Catalonia reminds that a political imbroglio does not have to morph into an economic crisis. It all depends on the context. Recent data shows that Spain’s economy has broadly shrugged off the secession drama being played out in Barcelona and Madrid.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Politicians Behind A Big Data Boom

    A local politician named Chen Min’er rose to prominence last week with his promotion to the Communist Party’s ruling Politburo. Chen’s main claim to fame is his transformation of Guizhou, one of China’s poorest provinces, into a supposed powerhouse of “big data.” But Chen’s real skill was in using political leverage from his ties to Xi Jinping.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The US Investment Environment

    House Republicans put forward their tax reform bill and Jerome Powell was put up to replace Janet Yellen at the Federal Reserve. On the face of it, this all seems like good news for markets. US firms may soon get a permanent tax cut on domestic earnings and mostly keep Uncle Sam away from their foreign earnings, while the prospect of a Taylor-rule adjustment to interest rates has been dodged as Powell seems set to maintain a path of gradual...

    4
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Housing & Construction Review 2017

    In her annual overview, Rosealea summarizes the outlook for the housing market and construction activity in China. This concise chartbook reviews the drivers of growth in 2017, digs into the key indicators and explains the core scenario for 2018: a modest correction in housing sales and prices, and a gradual slowdown in construction activity.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Keep Calm And Suck It Up

    The Bank of England is expected to turn tail today by raising interest rates for the first time in a decade. What follows is a particular worry for homeowners, who since 2008 have seen interest payments on mortgages fall by as much as -95% due to 550bp of rate cuts. After all, the specter of a disorderly Brexit looms, businesses are threatening to move out of the UK and economic growth has slowed to a miserly 1.5%. I am relaxed about this...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Debating The Eurozone Recovery

    Over the last two years, Nick and Cedric have held similar views about the eurozone’s economic situation. In recent months, however, they have started to diverge on whether this framework still describes Europe’s situation. The upshot is that while Cedric is bulled up, Nick has begun to think the recovery is running out of road.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    A Different Order Of Political Risk

    Investors in big technology companies, both US and Chinese, are waking up to political risk. In Washington yesterday, senators hauled lawyers for Facebook, Google and Twitter over the coals for carrying foreign-funded political advertisements during the 2016 presidential election campaign in contravention of US law. Meanwhile in China, the government is demanding representation on the boards of big internet companies, including Tencent, Alibaba...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: How Much Longer For Low Rates?

    For decades fixed income and equity markets have enjoyed a secular bull market, propelled higher by low real long term interest rates, depressed by a glut of global savings. In this Strategy Monthly, Will Denyer updates his Capital Provider Ratio, a powerful demographic tool which indicates that the growth of global excess savings has peaked, and that the glut will soon begin to dry up, with far-reaching consequences for global asset markets.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Selling India’s Housing Dream — Part I

    India’s economy is in a slump, laid low by a chronic lack of investment and weak job creation. How can India both revive growth and generate jobs for millions of low-skilled workers? Tom argues that one answer lies in the construction sector, specifically the mass buildout of affordable housing.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    False Dawn For The Dollar — And Oil

    Last week the US dollar broke out of its summer trading range and hit its strongest level against the euro and the yen since July. The Brent oil price broke through US$60/bbl to a two-year high. And even sterling seemed to be on the verge of strengthening beyond its post-French election trading range against the euro. How should investors respond to all these breakouts?

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