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  • Gavekal Research

    Joyce Poon: Market Timing In Asia

    Investors need to get nimbler in playing Emerging Asia’s equity markets due to the lack of any clear trend that dates back to 2010. Joyce outlines a trading strategy that can potentially make a big difference to performance.

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    Go Contrarian In Asia

    Investing in Emerging Asia is tricky due to the high volatility that exists within the overall trend of the region’s asset markets. Hence, market-timing has become a fairly essential strategy. It was not always so, for between the mid-1980s and 2010 Emerging Asia was a fairly straightforward call—“all in” worked during structural bull markets, and “all out” was the way to go during periodic bear markets.

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    Neil Newman: Japanese Equities — Good For A Rally?

    The Bank of Japan has rolled back the date that it expects to hit its 2% inflation target, the economy is soft and foreign investors have thoroughly given up on Japanese equities. So why does Neil think there is a good chance of a decent “Santa rally” going into the year end. In this video interview he explains.

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    The New Frontier In Aerospace

    The highlight of this week’s Zhuhai airshow in Southern China was a fly-past by two of the People’s Liberation Army’s new J-20 warplanes, touted as China’s first stealth aircraft. Western military analysts reserved their judgment, pointing out they had learned nothing new about the aircraft, except that it was very noisy. Nevertheless, the broader message from Zhuhai was clear, echoing a similar message broadcast by the Japan International...

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    Can India Grow By Day?

    “India grows at night,” goes a popular saying, “when the government sleeps.” Prime Minister Narendra Modi has promised to change all that as he thinks that effective governance will enable India to “grow by day.” In this piece Tom assesses the changing mechanics of government in India with a particular focus on digital solutions that have the potential to bypass an often self-interested and sclerotic bureaucracy.

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    The Economics Behind Korea’s Political Scandal

    The political turmoil engulfing South Korea claimed the scalps of both the prime minister and the finance minister on Wednesday, as embattled president Park Geun-hye opted for a cabinet reshuffle in a bid to shore up her sagging administration. In recent months Korea has seen the bankruptcy of Hanjin Shipping, the country’s largest shipping company, and the recall of millions of Samsung’s Galaxy Note 7 phones, the flagship product from the...

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    The Gavekal Monthly: Deflation Ends; What Next?

    The biggest market move of the past month was a significant rise in bond yields across the US and Europe. Much commentary has suggested that this might be a symptom of a sustained rise in inflationary pressures, as wages and rents start to push up prices in the US, and Chinese producer prices end four long years spent in negative territory. We are skeptical. The recent rise in yields has so far reversed only half of the decline in the first half...

    0
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    Safety First In EMs

    After a steady rise in emerging market inflows over the last seven months, tighter US financial conditions have led to an abrupt reversal. On the back of inflation concerns and a stronger US dollar, the seven day moving average of daily portfolio flows to EMs, as of last Monday, had fallen to its lowest level since the renminbi-induced sell-off 14 months ago. EMs are vulnerable to an externally-induced pull-back, for even if key central banks...

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    Japan Does An Apple

    The Bank of Japan and the Japanese government have done their best to stop a grinding appreciation of the yen, but to no great avail. The unit is up 14% this year against the US dollar, which has seemingly delivered a body blow for the monetary easing “arrow” in Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s 2012 revival quiver. This is certainly the view of foreign investors who this year have pulled money out of Japan at the fastest rate since 1987. And yet a...

    1
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    London Seminar — October 2016

    Charles Gave, Joyce Poon, Tom Miller and Anatole Kaletsky outlined their views on issues ranging from the end of the Pax Americana, global asset allocation in the face of increasingly ineffectual monetary policy, India's growth potential, and the imminent uncertainty for markets in the face of political risk.

    0
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    Thailand’s Transition

    Perhaps the one thing that Thailand’s polarized political tribes have agreed on in recent times is that the passing of their (generally) popular king would mark a pivotal moment of transition. King Bhumibol Adulyadej, 88, who died yesterday was a steady presence who stopped violent political struggles from morphing into a general civil conflict. The concern is that this restraint now goes out of the window, as opponents to the royalist...

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    The World's New Tax Haven

    In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, there was a sense that the systemic failures it revealed would spark a radical overhaul of the global financial architecture. Eight years on, that has not happened: an exception is perhaps offshore finance. The US led the way with its Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA), which targets US citizens with footloose money. A more ambitious initiative was launched in 2009 by the G20; it aimed for...

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    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research October Call

    Will Denyer presented a newly minted dynamic asset allocation tool which was developed from an ROIC-based framework that has helped us to better map and predict US economic cycles. He then answered listener questions on these themes.

    0
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    India’s Race To The Top

    What do Apache helicopters and one-fifth of the world’s vaccines have in common? They are manufactured in India’s Telangana state. How about Apple, Google and Uber? They are all opening their largest development bases outside the US in Hyderabad, the state capital, following in the footsteps of Facebook and Microsoft, which have their head India offices there. Amazon, too, is setting up its second-largest global delivery base in the city. And...

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    Staring Into The Abyss

    Since Rodrigo Duterte became president of the Philippines in May, he has sanctioned the extra-judicial killing of some 3,600 petty criminals and drug users, graphically insulted the US president, favorably compared himself to Hitler, and threatened to switch his country’s allegiance to China and Russia. As he has ripped up behavioral norms for democratic heads of state, investors have yanked out at least US$500mn of capital over the last two...

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    The Gavekal Monthly: What Price On A Trump Victory?

    Markets seem sanguine about the prospect of a Donald Trump victory in next month's US presidential election—too sanguine. Expert opinion gives Hillary Clinton a 75% chance of winning. But remember that four months ago in the UK, expert opinion discounted polls showing a strong chance of Brexit, and the experts were proved wrong. And the consequences of a Trump win are so huge and potentially destabilizing that even a 25% chance means...

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    That Sinking Feeling

    You almost have to feel sorry for poor Haruhiko Kuroda. Just over a week after the Bank of Japan governor announced his intention to overshoot the central bank’s 2% inflation target, it is painfully obvious that investors believe he will fall short. That much is clear from the Japanese government bond market. At last week’s meeting the BoJ announced that from now on it will tailor its JGB purchases to target a 10-year yield of zero. In the days...

    0
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    Modi Finds His Mojo

    India, according to its many skeptics, will never change. It is too messy, too unwieldy—perhaps too democratic—to emulate China as an engine of global growth. For all the hoopla that greeted Narendra’s Modi election in 2014, very little changed for the better in Modi’s first two years in charge: his new government failed to pass its “big bang” reforms, banks stopped lending, and investment slumped. Critics accused Modi of being all talk and no...

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    Singapore Seminar—September 2016

    Audio and video from the latest Gavekal seminar in Singapore is available here. Louis Gave explains why financial markets have recently behaved predictably, and why that is about to change. Andrew Batson explains why Chinese policy making is in a holding pattern until next year's party congress is settled. Udith Sikand explains why this year's emerging market outperformance is likely to continue, as bonds and especially equities have...

    0
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    Neil Newman: BoJ Policy Meeting In A Nutshell

    After the Bank of Japan’s announcement earlier today of quantitative easing “with yield curve control”, Neil delivers a quick-fire video assessment of the new policy slant, and what it will mean for markets and the broader Japanese economy.

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